Coming into draft season, evaluating players is so much more than just “I like this guy” or I don’t like this guy. You will inevitably have reasons for your admiration or disdain of a particular player, but being able to identify problem players is pivotal to your draft strategy. There’s no such thing as a perfect player in fantasy football, and you will likely have some problem players on your team, however, being able to identify these players will help making some of those difficult draft day decisions.
The list below is by no means an exhaustive list of all of the types of problem players there are in the fantasy football landscape, but this list compiles the players that I can identify and personally use when evaluating players and formulating my draft strategy. As someone who is more risk-averse when drafting, there may be some unconscious bias in here, but the principle still applies and at the very least, it will open your eyes to some problem players. Well, maybe more problematic traits.
The player who is….
Injury Prone
There’s another article in this LOADED draft guide talking about injury prone players, so I’m going to take some of the info from there to make the case here.
Will Fuller has immense upside as the potential WR1 for the Houston Texans and is incredibly talented, but he’s being drafted as the WR35. Out of a potential 48 games since the start of 2017, he’s appeared in just 28 games.
Evan Engram could finish the year as a TE1 in a good offensive system, but he’s played in just 19 games the past two seasons.
Not only is there news of a holdout, but Dalvin Cook is a first round pick and has yet to play a full season in the National Football League.
You’re inevitably going to draft someone with an injury history, and every player in the NFL has risk for injury given the nature of the sport, but putting premium draft capital towards a guy with a documented injury history sets the tone for a “first or worst” team.
Dealing With the Rookie with High Draft Capital
When a team invests highly in a rookie, especially at the skill position, the thought is for that player to become “the guy” at the position, whether its immediately or in the near future. The easy example here is Marlon Mack , as the Colts traded up to get Jonathan Taylor in the second round of this year’s draft. There is no doubt that Taylor is the running back of the future, and should carve out a sizable role here in 2020. Mack will be involved, but he’s likely gone after this season, and at his current NFFC ADP of 83.78, it seems too pricy at this point for essentially a handcuff.
Another notable scenario here in 2020 is in Denver with Jerry Jeudy. In the final five games of 2020 with Drew Lock at the helm, DaeSean Hamilton had three games with at least six targets. Courtland Sutton averaged four less fantasy points per game in those contests. Using RotoViz’s game splits tool, his 16 game average in those contests comes out to 161 fantasy points, and in the other 13 games, his full season pace is 235 fantasy points. That’s the difference of being the WR14 and WR41 last year! Sutton’s current ADP is WR19, and not only did the Broncos add Jeudy, but K.J. Hamler as well!
The Rookie with High Draft Capital
When a team invests highly in a rookie, especially at the skill position, the thought is for that player to become “the guy” at the position, whether its immediately or in the near future. IT’S NOT GUARANTEED THAT THE ROOKIE PRODUCES RIGHT AWAY!
There were six receivers drafted in the first round this year: Henry Ruggs III, Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson and Brandon Aiyuk. For frame of reference, the two rookie wideouts drafted in the first round last year (Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry) finished as a WR2 less than 30 percent of the time last year. The two highest were Deebo Samuel (47%) and Terry McLaurin (43%), neither of which were first round selections, per RotoViz.
At the running back position, Josh Jacobs waltzed right into a bell-cow role and ended the year as a RB21 in PPR formats. The young exciting rookie isn’t always the right selection, especially in redraft formats.
Inconsistent
Consistency is incredibly important in fantasy football, especially when looking for guys that will keep your weekly point totals at a respectable level on a weekly basis. Let me pull some information from another article I wrote for this draft guide:
Tom Brady scored more fantasy points than Gardner Minshew last year, but Minshew had more weeks as a QB1 than Brady (43% to 38%).
In standard scoring, Todd Gurley was a top 24 running back 80 percent of the time in 2019, which was higher than Alvin Kamara (79%), Saquon Barkley (69%), Aaron Jones (68%) Derrick Henry (67%), Mark Ingram (66%), and Austin Ekeler (57%).
In Half PPR formats, Robert Woods was a top 24 wide receiver 46 percent of the time, which was higher than A.J. Brown (37%) and D.J. Chark (40%). Additionally, he was right on par with D.J. Moore (53%) and Amari Cooper (50%).
Lastly, to showcase consistency, take a look at the wide receivers that ranked 10th through 16th from last season. Their fantasy point totals were within 14 points of one another, but the weeks they were a top 24 option at their position varied greatly.
Name | 2019 Fantasy Points (PPR) | % of Weeks as a WR1 |
246.50 | 50% | |
246.20 | 56% | |
237.40 | 38% | |
235.20 | 57% | |
232.90 | 46% | |
232.70 | 38% | |
232.50 | 60% |
(Courtesy of RotoViz)
Consistency is key.
Overhyped
A lot of players that fall in this category become more of a personal preference. Someone like A.J. Brown in Tennessee falls on drastic ends of the spectrum, depending on who you ask. He was a beast with Ryan Tannehill last season, but he’s on a run-heavy team and will rely on big plays and touchdowns to rack up fantasy points. He found the end zone five times in the final six games, and only had more than five receptions in one of those contests. The play action will work, as long as Henry is running effectively, but depending on whether or not you’re looking for your WR1 or WR2 makes Brown a potentially problematic player in 2020. Consistency could be an issue here.
Also, with this point here, it’s worth noting that you should be monitoring where players are going in drafts. You may like the player, but be wary of the price. For example, I am all in on a rebound season for David Johnson in Houston. Currently, he’s the RB23 and going off the board in the fourth round. If group think starts to push him north into the top 30ish picks, the value on Johnson isn’t as enticing as it was before. Liking the player is one thing, but liking the value and draft capital is another piece of the pie.
A Big Name With Not So Big Production Recently
This is largely for the quarterback position, as these players tend to get glorified more than others, but big names don’t always equate to fantasy success! Aaron Rodgers continues to get drafted as a top tier quarterback, but in his last 39 games played, he’s been a top 12 quarterback just 19 percent of the time, per RotoViz! His attempted air yards were the lowest in 2019 in the past four years, and his receiving crew is less than stellar after Davante Adams .
Even Tom Brady ’s fantasy production in recent years hasn’t lived up to the gargantuan status his name entails. He’s finished as the QB12 or worse in three of the past four years, but fortunately, from a fantasy perspective, he’s heading to a pass happy offense with some exploitable secondaries within his division. In fact, the teams in his division are better overall than that of the AFC East, but I’d make the case that the secondaries are weaker in the NFC South than the AFC East. Brady’s fortunate for that, but if he was still in New England, he would not be worthy of being a week-in-week-out QB1.
A couple other potential problematic players could be guys who are….
- Dealing with a Teammate [Substantially] Eating into Statistical Production
- Being Drafted at His Ceiling
- Dependent on Big Plays and require significant draft capital
This is not an exhaustive list of every potential problem player, but it does provide a sense as to some traits that can negatively affect your perception of a player. We can like the talent of a particular player, but a lot of the time, you like the value of a player or where they are going in drafts. Keep in mind everything above and make sure you’re fully prepared heading into your draft. Don’t fall into any of the “traps” mentioned above!
Statistical Credits:
RotoViz.com
pro-football-reference.com