As I am writing this it is two degrees Fahrenheit in Chicago with a minus 20 degree win chill, and my furnace is not working, so expect me to get to my weekly picks a bit faster than usual today. The furnace has not been off for long, and the temperature in my place has barely dropped, but I swear it feels 10 degrees colder since I noticed it was off.
The NBA is like that in a lot of ways. If often takes NBA fans and media awhile to notice when a player is doing something particularly well or particularly poorly, but once we do we tend to make a bigger deal out of it than it actually is. Take, for instance, James Harden’s defense. It became trendy to poke fun at Harden’s defense, especially with so many amusing YouTube clips, but he was probably never as bad defensively as he was made out to be. He also isn’t as good defensively as some have tried to argue this season, though there is no doubt he has improved.
My point is similar to the one I made last week regarding the Cavaliers’ defense. You cannot go on Twitter without somebody losing their mind over Cleveland’s sorry defense, but that does not make it a great fantasy matchup. Without further ado let us look at some great fantasy matchups for the week from Monday, January 12 to Monday, January 19.
Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets (Home vs. Mavericks, Road vs. Mavericks, Home vs. Timberwolves, Road vs. Warriors) Nurkic’s fantasy value should take a hit when JaVale McGee returns from a leg injury, but he should be just fine considering Denver’s schedule next week. Nurkic is averaging 7.6 rebounds over his last five games, and he should rack up even more rebounds this week. The Mavericks are in the bottom half of the league in percentage of rebounds per chance and the Timberwolves are even worse. The Warriors, for their part, are fourth in the league in rebound chances per game. J.J. Hickson should take advantage of this schedule as well, though Nurkic’s blocks put him over the top. The Timberwolves have allowed the second-most opponents blocks in the NBA.
Aaron Brooks, Chicago Bulls (Home vs. Magic, Home vs. Wizards, Road vs. Celtics, Home vs. Hawks, Road vs. Cavaliers) Aaron Brooks is 15th in the NBA in points per 48 minutes on drives, ahead of bigger names like Michael Carter-Williams, Reggie Jackson, Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, LeBron James and many others. Only the Timberwolves have allowed opponents to shoot a better percentage at the rim than the Hawks and the Cavaliers, with the Magic and Celtics not far behind. Brooks is a much better fantasy play when Derrick Rose or Kirk Hinrich are out, but he should be good this week regardless.
Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat (Road vs. Lakers, Road vs. Warriors, Road vs. Kings) I do not believe Chalmers is actually a good basketball player, but he is in the top 20 in steals per game and the Warriors and Kings have allowed the second and fifth-most opponents steals per game. The Lakers have also allowed the second-highest opponent’s 3-point field goal percentage in the NBA, which should help Chalmers as well.
Matthew Dellavedova, Cleveland Cavaliers (Road vs. Suns, Road vs. Lakers, Road vs. Clippers, Home vs. Bulls) Dellavedova’s limited usefulness for fantasy is coming to an end soon, thanks mostly to Lebron James’s expected return. Dellavedova has averaged 5.6 assists per gameover the last five games, however, and the Lakers and Clippers have allowed the third and fourth-most opponents assists per game this season. This could be a good opportunity to rack up some assists on the cheap.
Marcus Morris, Phoenix Suns (Home vs. Cavaliers, Home vs. Timberwolves, Home vs. Lakers) The Cleveland game is the first of eight consecutive home games for the Suns. That could make Morris and little-owned teammates like Alex Len, P.J. Tucker and Miles Plumlee good fantasy pickups not just for this week but for the rest of the month. I have written a lot this season about how favorable the Timberwolves and Lakers are for opposing fantasy players, but the reason I chose Morris here is because those teams are in the bottom five in opponent’s 3-point percentage while the Cavaliers are only slightly better. Morris is averaging 1.4 made threes this season.
Hopefully you are in a warm place, or at least your furnace is functioning. At the very least it warms my heart to be able to present my latest NBA schedule picks. My house may be cold but there is no reason your fantasy basketball team should be.
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