In a shocking twist of fate, the Dallas Mavericks, overcoming their 1.8% odds, emerged victorious in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery and earned the No. 1 overall selection, choosing Duke University phenom forward Cooper Flagg. 

The 18-year-old prodigy, already tabbed as a generational prospect, is the franchise's new face following the blockbuster trade of Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in February 2025. Flagg's arrival is a franchise-changing event for Dallas, who are reloading around a core of Anthony Davis and a rehabbing Kyrie Irving, with championship expectations on the horizon.

 

Cooper Flagg College Stats

In his only freshman season at Duke, Cooper Flagg turned in one of the greatest performances in recent college basketball history. The 6-foot-9 forward averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game while making 48.1% of his field-goal attempts and 37.5% of his three-point attempts. His record-breaking play garnered him ACC Player of the Year and ACC Rookie of the Year accolades, along with the prestigious John R. Wooden Award as the country's best player. Flagg guided Duke to a 35-4 record and a Final Four berth, highlighting his elite two-way upside and non-stop competitiveness. His advanced numbers were equally impressive, ranking first in the country in defensive box plus-minus (16.3), third in offensive (5.1) and defensive (3.3) win shares, and fifth in PER (30.4).

 

Dallas Mavericks Depth Chart

The Mavericks' roster is undergoing a significant rebuild, and Flagg's addition creates intriguing lineup possibilities. His natural fit is at power forward, where his defensive versatility and off-ball chaos are showcased, but he's also capable of playing small forward. But slotted at the three, he might cause a logjam with the likes of Naji Marshall and P.J. Washington, introducing long-term fit concerns. Below is a 2025-26 projected depth chart, with the assumption that Kyrie Irving will be back from his ACL injury midseason:

Flagg's versatility gives coach Jason Kidd lineup experimentation options, like playing him as a shooting guard in small-ball lineups or pairing him with Davis for a defensive-minded frontcourt. The Mavericks' center depth with Lively and Gafford may push Davis to the five, which could force one of the big men into a bench role.

 

Dallas Mavericks Odds - 2025 Championship

Even with their lottery victory, the Mavericks' road to the 2025-26 NBA Finals is an uphill climb. Irving out until at least January 2026 with his ACL tear and a roster still in flux post-Doncic, sportsbooks are dubious of Dallas' short-term title chances. NBA Finals odds have the Mavericks as a +2500 dark horse championship winner, indicative of their rebuild in the loaded Western Conference. Still, Flagg's immediate defensive presence, combined with Davis' dominance and Thompson's shooting, provides Dallas a core to be playoff competitive if Irving regains form. The team's future is even more promising, as Flagg's youth (he doesn't turn 19 until December 2025) and rookie contract provide financial flexibility to build around their core.

 

Cooper Flagg Rookie of the Year Odds

Flagg begins NBA life as the -150 favorite to be the 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year, per DraftKings Sportsbook. The mix of immediate contribution, versatility, and leading role out of the gate on a playoff team makes him the favorite. Unlike most No. 1 picks who enter rebuilding teams, Flagg has the privilege of playing alongside veterans such as Davis and Thompson, which should strip away his offensive load while bringing his defensive expertise to the forefront. Challengers such as Rutgers' Dylan Harper (+300), who is projected to be selected No. 2 by the San Antonio Spurs, and Baylor's VJ Edgecombe (+600) may threaten, but Flagg's two-way dominance and high-usage role are a winning difference-maker.

 

Cooper Flagg Projections

Flagg's NBA projections are high, as scouts have compared him to a mix of Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, and Draymond Green because of his defensive versatility, playmaking, and competitiveness. His floor is among the most secure of recent top prospects, ensuring an elite defender who can guard multiple positions and serve as an offensive glue guy. As a rookie, Flagg should score 15-17 points, 6-8 rebounds, 3-4 assists, and 1.5-2 blocks/steals per game on splits of approximately 46% FG and 35% 3P. His transition creation, spot-up three-point shooting, and secondary playmaking will be a fit with Dallas' stars.

In the future, Flagg has the potential to be a perennial All-Star and Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Though his isolation and pick-and-roll creation must be honed, his work ethic and high-end feel for the game predict substantial growth. Being paired with Davis, who can anchor the paint, enables Flagg to freelance on defense, creating one of the league's elite frontcourt duos. Should Flagg reach his offensive ceiling, he has the potential to be the keystone the Mavericks require to get back to championship contention.