So I loaded up my car with three different Dodgers hats and one change of clothes and headed to Tout Wars in NYC this weekend at the SiriusXM studios. I was not a participant in the draft, but anytime I get a chance to rub noses with other people in the industry and talk baseball, I am on it. I was fortunate to meet some of my fellow Fantasy Alarm writers at this event like Rick Wolf, Ray Flowers, Joe Pisapia, and, of course, the coolest cat from here to Half Moon Bay, Howard Bender. Now I know what the guppies feel like when swimming around with those giant Oscars. I am the guppy.
So after an evening of surrounding myself with the greatest baseball minds in the industry I realized several things. Some of these guys do not know half as much as they think they do while others absolutely amazed me with the actual “baseball” knowledge they possess (I am not talking saber-metrics). I realized, when I heard another expert make the ludicrous comment that “Vin Scully knows nothing about baseball” (which I assure you I was unable to stop myself from giving him a stern tongue lashing which would have been worse if Brian Ambos didn’t step in and change the subject), that some of these guys know “nothing” about the game. They can tell you the wOBA for Adam Jones versus RHP, but off the top of their heads could not tell you things like who won the triple-crown in 1967 (Carl Yastrzemski), who surrendered the “shot heard around the world” to Bobby Thompson in 1951 (Ralph Branca), who the last pitcher to win 30 games was (Denny McLain), or who said “99 percent of the game is half mental” (Yogi Berra).
Whether or not anyone will admit it, remembering “Morgana the Kissing Bandit” running onto fields is a part of baseball history -- an important fact to know to show the difference in the times. You try running onto the field now to kiss Matt Harvey. He would run like a girl. Steve Garvey, he took it like a man. These are things I learned by the age of 10.
I have been a baseball historian, card collector, and fan for 34 out of 42 years of my life. You see I love baseball, I love the ballpark, I love Mr. Met shooting t-shirts out of a cannon (even if I never get them), I love the shake shack, bacon-on-a-stick stand, and, more importantly, I love the way it makes me feel win or lose watching the Dodgers (at Citi Field). Baseball has been the one constant in my life since I was kid. My mom is gone, my father is old, I am getting older, and baseball is still here for me. I have a baby on the way and, boy or girl, I assure this child will also possess an abundance of baseball knowledge if nothing else from listening to his or her old man speak and helping me set up at card shows in the summer on weekends. My child will have some respect. Respect for the game, its heritage, and he or she will never make a pretentious ignorant comment like “Vin Scully knows nothing about baseball”. Some things and people are beyond the reticles of any fantasy analysts. The simple truth is Vin Scully would not mention even the biggest fantasy superstar in conversation, why? Because he more than likely has Sandy Koufax on speed dial. Do you?
There is more to baseball than Fantasy, DFS, or stats. Remember that. It is our true national past time and a part of our history.
No, I did not forget this was a basketball article.
So my friends I have two operations coming up in the next two weeks and hopefully after that I am good to go. One is a minor one and the other due to my gastric bypass surgery can be a bit complicated. I should only be down maybe a week or so. Although I am not sure of the exact date I can tell you my Position Coach articles for the season are winding down. After I return I am fairly certain I will be doing DFS MLB. I cannot wait.
We have a four-game slate today with more question marks than the Riddler possesses in that invisible space in existence that allows him to keep pulling giant question marks out of his back pocket. We also only have a few superstars on the slate to choose from and before even trying I can tell you it should not be difficult to fit three of them (maybe four) into your lineup tonight. This is one of those evenings where you have to attack the cash games with a slight GPP edge or you will be dead in the water. We have several cheap players in positions to put up nice scores which usually spells a big night in DFS NBA.
So with my stern warning not to insult Vin Scully around me in the past, and the dog days of DFS NBA in full swing, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article. Once again, we are having trouble with the spreadsheets, but everything else in this article is 100 percent up to date with accurate numbers.
Point Guard
Strategy
At the point guard position on this slate I see no way you do not roster at least one superstar with so many viable players that fall into the value category tonight. Depending on how you choose to go here you could do the contrarian thing and stack the point guard position. A lot of that strategy would of course depend on whether or not James Harden plays tonight.
Core Players
Although the matchup is not the greatest on paper with Houston allowing the 13th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards, Russell Westbrook tops my list. First off, he is the only superstar without a question mark next to him for tonight. Second, this game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 222.5 with the Thunder being 10-point favorites. Westbrook, in his last 10 games, has managed to score over 40 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last 10 games, going over the 50 mark versus the Clippers (65.7), Trail Blazers (59), and the Sixers (54). He also has five triple-doubles in this span and has the highest upside on the slate at point guard. I see no way you fade him tonight in cash games (or any games for that matter).
If you are stubborn and want to be “that guy” who fades Westbrook then the likely alternative should be Kemba Walker. Although Walker is no Westbrook, he is like the scaled down Wal Mart version. At one point, Walker was dropping over 40 fantasy ppg (prior to the last four he had scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four of six) but has slowed down lately pushing his price down and ownership as well. The Nets are ranked 24th at defending the point guard position and Kemba should have no problem going “Walker, Texas Ranger” all over them tonight.
Topping the threshold of the value play section and the bottom of the core player section is none other than Patrick Beverley. The Thunder are allowing the 22nd most fantasy ppg to point guards and Beverley, for the low price of $5,000 on FanDuel, has been quite consistent scoring over 20 fantasy ppg in seven out of his last 10 games going over 30 versus the Pelicans (30.8), Sixers (32.3), Grizzlies (31), and Timberwolves (40). For the price and with all the value tonight at point guard Beverley could be the obvious play that is highly under-owned.
Possible Value Plays
It is a strange night when you have only four games and several options under $5K on FanDuel.
Ray McCallum is the obvious choice tonight for value facing a Lakers team allowing the most fantasy ppg to point guards. He has back-to-back games scoring over 20 fantasy ppg versus the Clippers (22.9) and the Suns (23.7). Tonight he is facing a Lakers squad that is trying to lose right now, which seems almost too good to be true, for the low price of $3,700. I am only running one lineup tonight and right now he is in it. He was also signed to a second 10-day contract today.
If you want to be a little sneaky then Marcelo Huertas could be the guy. For whatever reason, the Lakers have gone away from D’Angelo Russell again allowing Huertas to play well over 20 minutes per game in his last eight while averaging over 20 fantasy ppg to boot. The Grizzlies are allowing the ninth fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but most of this was in the pre-McCallum days.
[Editor's Note: We again apologize for not having the spreadsheets in the current article. They should be restored soon enough. Your patience is very much appreciated.]
Shooting Guard
Strategy
Not a ton of value at the two tonight and I prefer to go the route of savings at this position. Whether I am right or wrong in this will be better answered around midnight.
Core Players
"Fozzy the Beard," aka James Harden (GTD – foot) has the highest usage rate among shooting guards and the upside to boot. Without a lot of superstar options tonight I do not believe you will see many lineups that do not include Harden. He did not practice on Monday so you will have to keep a close eye on this one. Fozzy is the only player at the two with the ability to drop 60 fantasy points something he did versus the Pelicans on March 2 (65.9) and the Raptors on March 6 (68). Although he does not hit the 60 mark nightly he has hit the 40 mark in seven out of his last 10 games with two 50 fantasy point performances sprinkled in. The matchup is favorable with the Thunder allowing the 18th most fantasy ppg and I am not sure how much more I need to say here.
Jrue Holiday now that he is back at the point guard position, in a twist of irony, is in the two now on FanDuel. The Pelicans have little left on the court offensively which means Holiday should continue to see heavy minutes and usage. The matchup could be better with the Heat allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but this game does have a nice 209.5 expected point total and if you do not want to pay for Harden then take a look at Holiday.
Sweet Lou Williams is back in action driving the production of Jordan Clarkson back into the ground. Williams, in his last three games, is averaging around 30 fantasy ppg while playing around 25 minutes per night. He is red hot right now scoring over 15 points in three straight including scoring 30 points versus the Suns on March 18. The matchup is not great with Memphis allowing the fourth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but this is not scaring me off of Sweet Lou tonight.
Possible Value Plays
Lance Stephenson, who was a must play for a while, is giving way to Tony Allen right now for value. Allen has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight and his price is only $4,700 on FanDuel. The Lakers are allowing the 28th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and I cannot imagine not taking a shot on him tonight to get some exposure to this late game.
Small Forward
Strategy
This is kind of a strange night at the three as we have an abundance of selection tonight. Most nights this position is starving but on this four-game slate it is like a Chinese buffet. The only problem is, if you choose the wrong item you will be hungry for more cash an hour or so after lineup lock. I will be balancing the three tonight using the traditional stars and almost-scrub theory.
Core Players
I am following my rule tonight of pairing Russell Westbrook with Kevin Durant (GTD – elbow). I am hoping that either James Harden or Kevin Durant end up sitting tonight. There are some other players I really want in my lineup at the four tonight that are going to force me to choose to use two of the three big guns tonight instead of all three (Westbrook, Harden, Durant). I just feel with two of these stars banged up, playing all three could be detrimental and overexpose my lineup to the possibility of players sitting in a blowout with the Thunder favored by 10 and injuries abound.
Durant has everything going for him tonight. A high expected point total, the second highest usage rate at the three, he’s averaging the most minutes per game at the three, and faces a Houston team allowing the most fantasy ppg to small forwards. Durant has scored over 50 fantasy ppg now in six of his last 10 games with two 60 fantasy point games thrown in versus the Bucks (60.6) and the Pacers (65.6). If he plays tonight and goes off and you fade him you are toast. I just got the word…Durant is playing.
Nicolas Batum would be your next-best option if you decide to be the guy who fades Durant. Batum has nice upside having scored over 30 fantasy ppg in seven of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark in four of those. His price is fair at $8,000 on FanDuel facing a Brooklyn team allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg to small forwards. Owning one of the players with the most mispronounced names in the NBA could be the way tonight.
Although I like Bojan Bogdanovic tonight I prefer Matt Barnes more. I feel like Bojan could be a highly owned letdown and I will have zero exposure to him. Barnes, however, benefits from a great matchup facing one of fantasy’s cash registers in the Lakers, who are allowing the 29th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. Barnes, with the whole Memphis team banged up, is playing heavy minutes and averaging over 30 fantasy ppg in his last three. The matchup is right even though the price is on the rise in the recent rash of FanDuel increases coming in at $6,400 which could be a new high for him.
Possible Value Plays
The top player for value coming in under the $5K mark is Michael Beasley. He is playing over 25 minutes per night off the bench and averaging well over a fantasy point per minute. In his last four he has scored 30.8, 27.1, 26.2, and 35.8 fantasy points playing 27, 19, 26, and 28 minutes. This tells me as long as he gets 25 minutes tonight I am golden. Just keep in mind the Thunder defend the three well allowing the 10th fewest fantasy ppg.
This one is riskier than Beasley but Luke Babbitt seems to be getting quite a run off the bench on a depleted Pelicans team that has all but given up. He is the near minimum salary and has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last five. The big risk is this, in the other two games he failed to score 10 fantasy points. It all comes down to minutes here which should be available facing a Heat team allowing the 17th most fantasy ppg small forwards.
Power Forward
Strategy
My instinct tells me to avoid the value here tonight and spend up on a few players who are tearing it up right now. At the moment I am passing on James Harden to do just that. More than likely that will change as it is still early. There is not one expensive player to spend up on here tonight but there are a few awesome ones for under $7K and some great possible value as well. Even though I have only listed four, the options tonight at power forward seem to be deep much like the three.
Core Players
The first player I inserted into my lineup at the four tonight was Thaddeus Young. With the likes of Donald Sloan, Wayne Ellington, and Bojan Bogdanovic on the court, Thad is getting a ton of playing time and opportunity. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five straight going over the 40 mark in his last three games versus the Sixers (49.2), Bulls (42.3.), and Pistons (43.8). The Hornets are allowing the 23rd most fantasy ppg to power forwards and for under $8K I am all in on Rad Thad.
I currently have Zach Randolph paired with Young tonight for a double-stack that hopefully will get me near 90 fantasy points. Randolph is playing a heavy minutes like all the other healthy Memphis players but he benefits from being the star on the team. In his last two games he has a triple-double and double-double scoring 54.2 and 34.6 fantasy points versus the Clippers and Suns. Tonight Young faces a Lakers team allowing the 20th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and I find his price low at $6,900 with the upside here.
Possible Value Plays
Much like Mason Plumlee I will use Cody Zeller in a great matchup. Although he has been playing center now forever, it seems he is still in the four on FanDuel. This one I simply see no excuse for. If you are playing on sites where he is in the center position I find him a top play along with the two below. In his last two games he has scored 22.4 and 29.3 fantasy points versus the Nuggets and Spurs. Yes, the Spurs. His price is under $5K and tonight he faces a Brooklyn team allowing the 25th most fantasy ppg to centers. He has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games and although a bit risky he is usually fairly safe in good matchups.
Donatas Motiejunas is playing over 20 minutes per game and producing decent fantasy numbers for the near minimum across the industry. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three of his last four going over the 30 mark twice versus the Grizzlies (30.2) and Timberwolves (34.3). He gets a tough matchup with the Thunder allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to the four but you know the saying, “you can’t have your cake and eat it too.” At least that is what I tell my wife.
Center
Strategy
As always, center seems the easiest to me and I also for some reason focus right in on a certain two and attack.
Core Players
Brook Lopez is the top play but I will be honest and tell you up front, I am not using him and only offering him as an alternative to the guy I am using. For instance, if Enes Kanter was to sit I would try to fit Brook Lopez into my lineup. Brook gets a tough matchup facing a Charlotte team allowing the 10th fewest fantasy ppg to centers but Lopez and Thaddeus Young pretty much are the offense for the Nets when on the court. Lopez has the highest usage rate among centers on the slate and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six of his last eight games going over the 40 mark twice. He is a GTD (illness) but did practice Monday so I doubt he will sit.
Enes Kanter is only $5,400 on FanDuel and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five out of his last eight games never going under 20 in this span. He is putting up great numbers off the bench and is a great way to keep the meter rolling when Durant and Westbrook are off the floor. The Rockets are allowing the 20th most fantasy ppg to centers and I cannot imagine using anyone else tonight.
Possible Value Plays
Anyone? Anyone at all? Nope.
So here is my question to you…with DFS gone in NY for a spell what stock do DFS writers in that state have? How can they give you plays and not play themselves? Myself? I would stop giving plays if I could not participate. I may not always be right with my Position Coach, but I will not write an article and not use players from it with my own money. If you are unable to play, you should not give advice on it. You have no vested interest in this situation. Which I find a shame because there is some damn good writers in New York. Good luck tonight.
GO DODGERS!
Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or you can email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com.
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