So I was listening to SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio today and although I am a fan of Tommy G. he made a statement that I could not disagree with more. He said that if you are playing in $2 games after playing DFS for five years then you are not good at it. Although I am only going into year four, here is why this is not true:
Not everyone is rich. Although a great DFS player, he often loses touch with the simple reality that there are several of us who hit all year long for several decent pots in small $2, $5 and $10 GPPs and choose to withdraw that money and put it to use for things like our families rather than leave it in play and raise the stakes. When I do hit, I withdraw the money and pay bills, leaving enough to continue playing in the GPPs that are within my family’s budget. In my case I usually have to withdraw my bankroll to pay my bills quicker than I can build it. Especially in the NBA.
Unless you are making six figures a year then the $1000 entry GPP that only has 12 people in it will always, for the most par,t be “out of reach.” Why? Because most of us responsible people who live on a budget, like 99 percent of America does, would never risk a grand on a GPP, regardless of size. Remember, these contests only have 10-to-15 entries because that is how small the player pool that can afford them are. All these great players you read about did not start with $50 and play cash games and build their empire. They all started with a fat bankroll and the ability to go deep into loss to improve their game. Anyhow, I am here to serve the 99 percent of us who are happy to make a car payment or credit card payment once per month off our winnings. Like I said, still a fan of Tommy G., just find his thinking to be from a rich fellow’s point of view. Which I guess I find hard to relate to as I am not.
We have a nice six-game slate tonight which I always find most pleasant. We also have a large amount of firepower in play tonight in the form of players over $10K. At the moment, I have put one lineup together and find it devoid of any of the bigger stars and chalked full of players between $6K - $7K on FanDuel. It just seems we have several players capable of putting up 35-to-45 fantasy points tonight in the upper mid-priced range and that is where I feel the most “bang for the buck” is at this time.
As always, all fantasy point references are FanDuel specific.
So with a four-year-old who keeps sucking on Peanut M & M’s and making a huge mess, a cat in some kind of crazy stalker mode, and the Easter Bunny kicked to the curb, I bring you today’s Position Coach Article. Once again, we apologize for the lack of spreadsheets in today's article, but the numbers below are 100 percent accurate.
Point Guard
Strategy
Obviously, both Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry are great GPP plays tonight due to their high ceilings with Kemba Walker being the chalk in cash games. For my taste I see some options that can hit 40 fantasy points tonight for less money with some lower suspected ownerships. If you were to choose to spend up I certainly could not blame you but I will not be.
Core Plays
In eight of his last 10 games John Wall has managed to score over 40 fantasy ppg, including two 50-point performances versus the Bulls (59) and Hawks (51.6) with nine double-doubles. The Wizards-Warriors game tonight has the highest expected point total on the slate at 226.5 with Golden State being favored by 13 points at home. Wall has a great matchup with the Warriors allowing the 26th most fantasy ppg to point guards and for the price I much prefer Wall over the other superstar point guards tonight.
With LeBron James sitting tonight, as always Kyrie Irving becomes as close to a must-play as possible. Cleveland is only favored by 1.5-points facing the Rockets in a game with an expected point total of 214. The matchup could be better with the Rockets allowing the 13th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards but Irving has the ability to drop a 40 spot, something he did versus the Mavericks on March 16 when he scored 40.5 fantasy points in 39 minutes. This also happened to be the last time Bron-Bron sat out.
I was really torn tonight between Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith. At the moment, I have Jackson sitting in my lineup but that has more to do with salary than preference. For this reason alone, I rank them both the same.
Smith has managed to score over 40 fantasy ppg now in two straight games with a double-double versus the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. The matchup is not great with the Hornets allowing the 11th fewest fantasy ppg to point guards, but with the Sixers as banged up as they are I see little reason Smith will not continue to be a huge part of the Sixers offense. This game also has a nice 209 expected point total but with four out of the six games having expected point totals over 210 this nears the bottom in that category. Still, I like me some Ish tonight.
Jackson is risky but for $6,000 on FanDuel facing a Thunder team allowing the 21st most fantasy ppg to point guards he is an excellent way to tap into the high 215.5 expected point total. Jackson also has managed to score over 30 fantasy ppg in five out of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark versus the Sixers on March 12 (42.6). I currently have Jackson paired with Irving tonight in my lineup.
Possible Value
With so many great mid-priced options I would only use this play in a GPP to compliment a Westbrook, Curry, or Wall.
Shane Larkin is starting again for Brooklyn and tonight faces an Orlando team allowing the 17th most fantasy ppg to point guards in a game with a nice 213.5 expected point total. In his last three games he is averaging over 25 fantasy ppg with his lowest score being 24.6 fantasy points versus a tough Heat defense last night. For under $4K he provides all that you need for that stars and scrubs GPP tonight.
Shooting Guard
Strategy
The shooting guard position tonight is loaded for a small slate with decent price options at whatever price point fits into your roster construction. This often tells me when building my lineup that this is a great place to try and pair one expensive player who can get over the 40 fantasy point mark with a lower-priced player who can get me 30 fantasy points as well.
Core Plays
Regardless of matchup if I was going to spend over $10K on any player tonight then "Fozzy the Beard," aka James Harden, is the player I would spend up on. Not only does Harden have the third highest usage rate among all the players on the slate with only Westbrook and Curry barely beating him out, but he is also the only player who is averaging over 55 fantasy ppg in his last four. Just in case you are not paying attention, in his last four games Harden has managed to score 59.4, 60.4, 60.5, and 52.6 fantasy points versus the Thunder, Jazz, Raptors, and Pacers. If he dominates versus teams like the Jazz and Raptors this tells me that the Cavaliers allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards means nothing. If you can afford him tonight then you pay him. If not, you do have options.
Klay Thompson is the player I currently have in my lineup for 50/50’s tonight. In his last three games Thompson has managed to score 40.3, 50.5, and 42.4 fantasy ppg versus the Clippers, Mavericks, and Sixers. In each of these games he also managed to score more than 30 points as well. Thompson is red hot right now and his price is only $7,400 on FanDuel. Tonight, facing the Wizards at home, I am all in some Klay as I see little choice on a small slate but to ride the hot hand.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope dropped a huge stinker on me in his last game only scoring 12.7 fantasy points versus the Hawks. Prior to this, though, KCP (who just typing those three letters makes me crave fried chicken) scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four out of his last eight games with the others hovering around the mid 20-point range. KCP had some early foul trouble in his last game which more than likely helped serve up the steaming pile of crap of a performance. It is hard to score when you are not on the floor. For $5,600 on FanDuel and a similar price on other sites I am more than willing to roster KCP tonight facing a Thunder team allowing the 20th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and he makes a fine complimentary piece to pair with a Thompson or Harden.
Possible Value
Either of these plays are best suited as pieces for a "stars & scrubs" lineup to fit in three or four giant studs tonight. I would not deem them cash game viable but as of last night both players have shown a little consistency which lends some credence for that type of usage and maybe just the play you need in cash games to gain an edge on a smaller slate. I will be using one or the other tonight in my GPP lineup when I get around to constructing it.
Jeremy Lin off the bench is playing more than 25 minutes on most nights. He also has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg in four out of the last six games he managed to secure more than 25 minutes of playing time or more going over the 30 mark versus the Spurs (39.4) on March 21. The Sixers are allowing the 19th most fantasy ppg so shooting guards and Lin should do well for $4,200 on FanDuel tonight.
Dion Waiters is one of them super risky players who either helps get you to the top or weights you down like a giant anchor. For instance, he has scored 28.3, 28.9, -2, & 27.9 fantasy ppg versus the Rockets, Jazz, Spurs, and Raptors. He is maddening to take but for the minimum tonight across the industry he sure is intriguing. The problem is, do you get 25 fantasy points or 5? If it helps the Pistons are allowing the seventh fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but keep in mind the Jazz are allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg and the Spurs the least. One he shined versus the other he flopped…bad.
Small Forward
Strategy
The small forward position seems to be fairly stacked as well tonight with options for a six-game slate. Overall, roster construction for both cash games and GPPs is fairly easy tonight. I would only use Kevin Durant if at all tonight with a bad matchup and playing his third game in four nights in a stars and scrubs GPP. I find we have better options for much cheaper regardless of contest selection.
Core Plays
The player I am rolling with in my cash games tonight is Paul George. The matchup is sweet with the Bulls allowing the 25th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. George also has the second highest usage rate behind Kevin Durant for small forwards on the slate and has managed to score over 40 fantasy ppg in four out of his last nine games going over the 60 mark versus the Thunder on March 19 (61.4). George has the ability to drop heavy numbers on any given night and for his price I much prefer him in the way of spending up. He is coming off a double-double versus the Rockets and I see no way he does not dominate again tonight.
The other player I am pairing with George tonight in an effort to lock this position down is Nicolas Batum who has the most mispronounced name in the NBA. The Sixers are allowing the 29th most fantasy ppg so small forwards and Batum has managed to score over 35 fantasy ppg in six of his last 10 games going over the 40 mark on four occasions. His price is low his production is high and I plan on riding him to the finish line tonight.
For the price even with the Warriors only allowing the 13th fewest fantasy ppg to small forwards you have to give Otto Porter some serious consideration tonight. He has been scoring more than 25 fantasy ppg most nights as of late and has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in three of his last nine games. His price is only $5,500 on FanDuel tonight and fair across the industry. Someone has to score tonight, why not Otto?
Possible Value
With LeBron James sitting tonight you could take a flyer on Richard Jefferson for the minimum salary across the industry. Not a lot of upside here but he does have the ability to get you 25 fantasy points tonight facing a Rockets team allowing the most fantasy ppg to small forwards. He has only played over 25 minutes once in his last 10 games versus the Heat on March 19 where he dropped 28.3 fantasy points. Keep in mind he is on the bench for a reason and in all the other games outside of the one mentioned he was abysmal. In a stars and scrubs he is perfect if you ask me.
Power Forward
Strategy
Not a lot in the way of high priced players at the four tonight and I see little in the way of excellent value. It seems to me that the way to tonight here is to spend up in the $6K range if at all possible for cash games and see what develops as we get closer to lineup lock for value.
Core Plays
With no LeBron tonight I will make this simple. Put in Kevin Love. Not only are the Rockets allowing the 29th most fantasy ppg to power forwards but when there is no LeBron it seems Love goes off. The last time LeBron rested Love dropped 48.4 fantasy points. He is also red hot scoring over 40 fantasy ppg in two of his last three. His price is low and I see you no way you fade him tonight in cash games.
Marvin Williams who used to remind me of the little green Martian that was always trying to blow up Bugs Bunny but not so much anymore is in a great spot to rack up some fantasy points for cheap tonight. The Sixers are allowing the 28th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Williams has managed to score over 25 fantasy ppg now five times in his last eight games going over the 30 mark three times scoring 43.8 fantasy points versus the Magic on March 16. His price is under $6K and he certainly is in a position to have a great night.
In order to gain a little exposure to the Oklahoma side of things tonight the player I currently have in my lineup with Kevin Love is Serge Ibaka. Ibaka has been slowly picking it back it up while his price remains low at $5,400 on FanDuel. In his last four games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg three times. He has the best defensive matchup from the Thunder side of things tonight with the Pistons allowing the 14th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards. I honestly think it is going to be the Serge Ibakas of the world who win someone a fortune tonight. Just got to find him.
Possible Value
Dear FanDuel,
I have written you time and time again asking you to please put me into the proper slot of center on your site where I have been playing for a long time. You see, tonight I am playing the Sixers. They are absolutely terrible, allowing the most fantasy ppg to centers. The DFS players have all spoken and agree, I should be in the proper spot. The season is almost over and I beg you to please correct this before it ends, if nothing else, because it is the right thing to do. My price is low and I have the ability to drop 25-to-30 fantasy points when I get hot. If you want to take a risk at this time, I seem to be the safest option. But I would only use me in a GPP.
Sincerely,
Center
Strategy
Cheap, cheap, cheap. That is my plan tonight at center. I will no doubt by night's end run two lineups and two of these three players will be in them. The goal tonight is to find a center who can get you to that 30 fantasy point mark without breaking your bank. All three of these options should get you on that path. Some are just riskier than others.
Core Plays
Marcin Gortat again looks like the must play at center to me for the price. He is only $6,600 on FanDuel which allows you to really spend elsewhere while shooting for a 40 spot. You need to find a way to gain some exposure in some fashion tonight to the Washington-Golden State game so why not use Gortat. The Warriors are allowing the 22nd most fantasy ppg to centers and Gortat is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg in the last three. If you can afford him he is my favorite option for cash games tonight.
Although a little risky due to his lack of scoring most nights I would use and currently am using Ian Mahinmi in my cash game lineup. I will only use him in a good matchup like tonight with the Bulls allowing the 24th most fantasy ppg to centers. He has back-to-back games scoring over 30 fantasy points and for $5,100 on FanDuel and cheaper on some sites I am willing to take the chance. Gortat is the preference but Mahinmi will work. I say you get 36 out of Gortat and 32 out of Mahinmi tonight.
Possible Value
Dewayne Dedmon is not a question of talent but a question of minutes. Most nights even though starting he fails to get over the 20-minute mark. He does however average around a fantasy ppm. His price is only $3,900 on FanDuel and on Saturday night versus the Bulls he dropped 34.6 fantasy points in 22 minutes. Like I said, it all comes down to minutes. GPP only.
GO DODGERS!
Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73 or email me at: therealjerrycolvin@yahoo.com
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