NBA DFS Position Coach: February 23, 2016

So the MLB season is getting so close I can smell the bacon on a stick place at Citi Field. I have already begun picking out the Mets games I will attend this season including the whole Dodgers series of course. This is the one thing I treat myself to each year with some of my hard earned tax money. I purchase the box seats right next to the Dodger dugout and enjoy the game in baseball luxury while I sit close enough to hear the player’s conversations. Let me tell you, I will not miss Zack Greinke. It does not come cheap but it is the one thing I enjoy each year more than anything and my wife is amazing at getting autographs.

The one player I will miss is Juan Uribe. Sitting on the third baseline got to the point after a few seasons where he actually recognized me. He would throw me head nods and the last game I saw him in a Dodger uniform he actually waved when he saw me. Of course, I do not imagine he ran into many fans across the country who had on caps from the various minor league affiliates like the Tulsa Drillers, Ogden Raptors, Oklahoma City Dodgers, and so forth. The bottom line is he is all class and is one of the finest representatives I have seen in the game. FYI, I took my father-in-law to our yearly Mets-Braves game (he is a Braves fan) and Uribe on the way by did a double-take at me and smiled. I thought it was funny. Maybe you had to be there.

Over the years I have seen some real creeps of players who totally ignore fans, i.e. Yasiel Puig, Zack Greinke, and when I was a child Wade Boggs. I have also seen some other players like Uribe who went out of their way each time I saw them to interact and sign autographs with fans. Players like Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, David Wright, Dee Gordon, and perhaps one of my finer childhood heroes, Wally Joyner. Joyner may not sound special but if you remember the Rookie of the Year chase between Jose Canseco and himself his name might sound a little more special. Plus you might have to be from Los Angeles.

Anyhow, I am now heading into my fourth season of playing serious MLB DFS and here is my advice to you, if you are starting this year then start your research now. Look, read, learn, and listen or the first months will be very painful. But hey, lucky for you that you had the fortitude to subscribe to the Fantasy Alarm DFS Playbook Pro because we have a great team here for the upcoming season to help you learn. Between the Hitting coach, Pitching coach, and Playbook we pretty much sniff everything out. If you are really new to this I highly recommend the Fantasy Alarm Baseball Draft Guide available here on the site. We worked very hard on it and I would put it up against any other draft guide out there bar none.

So with none of this having to do with the NBA I will get moving.

I have this rule about the NBA. After the All-Star Break I cut my exposure to it down to about 30 percent of the pre-break amount. For instance I am now playing around $35 per night on FanDuel, $10 per night (GPP only) on DraftKings, and I have completely abandoned Yahoo! and Fantasy Aces. The reason for this is the variance is going to increase 10-fold with the playoffs around the corner. Stars will sit more in blowouts and so forth. The closer we get to the playoffs the more I feel like I am scratching instant tickets at the convenience store. Something I DO NOT do. With DFS MLB around the corner I am reserving the majority of my bankroll for the long 162-game season ahead. I am not saying DFS NBA is dead to me I am just saying I am a baseball guy first and NBA guy second.

One of the things I hope you subscribers get out these articles is our thought processes behind our decisions. You will notice some of us attack this with years of basketball knowledge and a deep understanding of the game and others like myself attack this by the numbers. I have watched the NBA for years, but never really played basketball. You did not get invited to many games when you were a short, fat Italian-Irish kid. So I spent my time eating hot dogs and watching basketball from a seat. I am DFS player and that is how I attack this. I honestly believe guys like Mark Kaplan and Justin Fensterman could easily be high school coaches if they wanted to. So take advantage of the writing between the picks because in those sentences is where the tools are to learn to play DFS. Except for my crazy ramblings about elves and such. I often wonder what Kristaps Porzingis would think if he was to find out he was the leader of a band of marshmallow treat-making half-pints.

So with a three-year old up at 4 a.m. because she wet the bed watching something about a Gumball (who is a little blue character of some sort), and fresh cup of coffee I bring you today’s position coach article.

Point Guard

For a small slate we have a ton of options at the point guard position. It certainly would not help you for me to give you nine choices on a five-game slate but understand that outside of the four I am giving you today you still have some good matchups to exploit.

I will only be running one lineup from here on-out per night split for the most part between cash and GPP play. Damian Lillard is the point guard I am choosing to spend up on today over John Wall. Although Wall is a decent option I find their ceilings the same, so it only makes sense to take the better matchup. Prior to facing a tough Utah defense on Sunday night where he failed to score 40 fantasy points he was averaging over 50 fantasy ppg over the previous three. With Lillard I get to have a great high-scoring “late bullet” in my lineup facing a Brooklyn team allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season in a game with a nice 209.5 expected point total.

Depending on how you spend tonight Gollum, or Rajon Rondo (GTD – turf toe) has absolutely been on fire lately and his price is showing it as it has crept up to $9,200 on FanDuel. In the last five games he has scored over 40 fantasy points twice and 50 fantasy points three times. The Nuggets are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position and this game has a huge 219.5 expected point total and the always nice pick for a line. If you are crafty enough tonight to pair Rondo with Lillard it could get you well over 100 points out of the one as I honestly can see him feeding the ball to DeMarcus Cousins all night long like the cheesesteak dealer to Bartolo Colon.

Ish Smith sure put up a stinker in his last game. In case you forgot I will refresh your memory. He scored a whopping 5.7 fantasy points versus the Mavericks on Sunday night leaving me feeling unfulfilled and cheated. For quite some time his price was over the $7,000 mark on FanDuel but now he has come back down to earth with a salary of $6,500 which I find more than fair. Smith prior to his last stinker had scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last eight games going over the 40 mark twice. Tonight he faces an Orlando team that is allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the point guard position on the season and Smith is a player who could easily net you over 40 fantasy points tonight.

I will be using two of the three above tonight but if you wanted to do a boom or bust GPP lineup then you need to take a look at Shelvin Mack. He was traded from the Hawks to the Jazz on Thursday and as DFS players it is obvious Utah needed a viable point guard. Is Mack the answer? Time will tell. For now we have to look at the small sample size and take a gamble. Mack scored 16 points with six assists and three rebounds over 25 minutes only turning the ball over once in his Jazz debut on Sunday night scoring nearly 30 fantasy points on FanDuel. His price is $3,700 and the minimum across the industry making him a great value play or huge bust facing a Houston team allowing the 18^th most fantasy ppg to the point guard position. The Rockets could get capped by the Mack-10 or have really bad raps thrown at them.

Although they did not make the Position Coach Emmanuel Mudiay, Jrue Holiday, and Elfrid Payton all just missed.

Shooting Guard

For a small slate there is a bevy options of at each position tonight. This in my experience leads to some pretty high scores by night's end in the DFS world. You have to make a hard decision here at the two tonight, to Fozzy the Beard or not to Fozzy the Beard.

Fozzy the Beard, or James Harden is without a doubt the top option on the slate at the shooting guard position. Harden remains hotter than a muggy July day in Western Massachusetts (trust me it is hot and muggy) scoring over 50 fantasy points in three straight games versus the Warriors, Trail Blazers, and Suns. He has a tough matchup tonight facing a Utah team allowing the second fewest fantasy ppg to the SG on the season but the Jazz, of course, do not face Harden on a nightly basis or I am sure that number would look quite different. Bad matchup or not he is the best play but not necessary to build your lineup around.

I am unsure right now if I am spending up for Harden or not tonight with some other big guns on the slate. An argument could be made tonight to go cheaper at both the point guard and shooting guard position and spend up at the other positions where big scores can be a little more difficult to come by.

Gary Harris is the type of player, regardless of recent track record, I still will only take in a good matchup. I just do not see the skills to force him in your lineup when he has a bad one. In his last four games he has managed to score over 20 fantasy ppg even getting close to the 30 mark on two of these occasions. The Kings are allowing the most fantasy points and real points in the NBA to the SG on the season and he is a cheap way to gain some exposure to the highest expected point total of the evening.

Evan Fournier is playing at SF and tearing it up even though FanDuel has him at SG. Over his last six games he is averaging nearly 30 fantasy ppg and his price remains low across the industry. The Sixers, who usually provide a bevy of positions to pick on, are no different when it comes to the small forward position as they are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to SFs. For the price in a game with a 209.5 expected point total and close line with Orlando being only 5.5-point favorites Fournier is a real bargain.

Although I am not on John Wall tonight I do like Bradley Beal. With the Pelicans-Wizards game having a 213 expected point total and the Pelicans allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to the SG Beal off the Bench can easily have one of those nights where he puts up over 30 fantasy points. His price is so close to Rodney Hood it was kind of a toss-up for me but Beal gets my call for the slight $100 difference on FanDuel with more fantasy points seemingly up for grabs in this game. Beal has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in nine straight going over 30 and 40 once and just edges out Hood in model.

Small Forward

Not a lot of cheap options tonight at the forward position.

My favorite play at the small forward spot tonight is Gordon Hayward. Trevor Ariza has not lived up to his defensive reputation this season opening the door for a shooter like Hayward to take advantage of him. The Rockets are allowing the second most fantasy ppg to the three on the season and Hayward has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six straight games getting near the 40 mark a few times. He is already in my lineup and it would take an act of God to remove him.

Right behind Hayward is Danilo Gallinari. With this game having the highest expected point total of the night you need to gain some exposure to one of the bigger players somewhere. Gallinari has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in four of his last six hitting the 40 mark twice. The Kings are allowing the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to the small forward position and Gallinari should easily handle my next play.

I currently have the two players above in my lineup but a lot of this will depend on whether I “Boogie or not Boogie” (see below).

Robert Covington has a price tag that is down to $5,000 on FanDuel tonight and he is a player who has the upside to get you 30 fantasy points. The problem is he also can get you 10 fantasy points which is a big part of the low price tag as well. He has, however, reached the 30 mark twice in the last 10 games versus the Warriors (35.1 fantasy points on FanDuel) on Jan. 30 and the Kings (41.5 fantasy points on FanDuel) on Feb. 10. The Magic are allowing the 21^st most fantasy ppg to the three on the season and on a night with little safe value at the three he is among the finer choices and the player I will use if I decide to dance.

Power Forward

I hate this position tonight. Either you spend up or take huge risk. You have very little in the way of viable mid-tier options tonight at PF.

Obviously Anthony Davis is the way to go tonight if you can afford him. In his last game versus the Pistons on Sunday he scored a whopping 59 points with 20 rebounds for a total of 89 fantasy points on FanDuel. Basically he controlled the slate. If you did not have him you more than likely did not cash in GPP’s. His track record has been a bit of a letdown but often it is a good idea to ride the hot hand on a team with very few solid scorers. The matchup is not great with the Wizards allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg to power forwards but much like Harden's matchup they do face Davis nightly. Make no mistake about it he could blow up again tonight leaving everyone in the dust who does not play him.

The next two players are the guys I am using as of right now in my lineup but it is early and more than likely will change depending on what possible value may pop up later.

Derrick Favors is back and tearing it up. In his last 10 games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg seven times going over the 40 mark twice versus the Bucks and Celtics. The Rockets are allowing the most fantasy ppg to the four and a great player in a great matchup usually spells DFS success. Just saying.

I currently have Aaron Gordon paired with Favors as I find him to be the best value versus possible upside on the slate at PF. Gordon has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in five straight hitting the 40 mark versus the Hawks on Feb. 7. The Sixers as earlier mentioned are usually a bevy of good fantasy matchups and this is no different as they are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the four on the season. His price is only $6,100 on FanDuel and he is close to a must play.

Jared Dudley, although the riskiest out of these four, is about the closest thing at this time I see to a value play. He has scored over 20 fantasy points in four out of his last five games and has a price below $5,000 on FanDuel and pretty cheap across the rest of the industry. It is risky with the Pelicans allowing the 15^th most fantasy ppg to the PF but in order to beef up with a few superstars you may have no choice and he is a cheap way to gain some more exposure to the high expected point total in this one.

Told you it was ugly.

Center

Tonight I see two options at the center position. Either “Boogie” or Vucevic.

DeMarcus Cousins (GTD) is without a doubt the player with the highest upside at the center position and has the price tag to match it. He has a high usage rate and has scored over 50 fantasy ppg in five of his last eight games hitting the 60 mark once. Tonight he faces a Nuggets team allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg on the season to centers and I cannot think of a better player to have besides Gallinari in this game. And If you can both are recommended. I currently have him in my lineup but the sacrifice I had to make to do it was rostering Shelvin Mack. Something I am not entirely sold on. In a weird way I kind of hope they sit him but I would say that is highly unlikely as he has had three days off and he did play well versus Denver last time, kind of.

Did you know that Nikola Vucevic has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in five of his last 10 games? Would it sway you if I told you that the Sixers are allowing 21.4 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to the center position? His price is low tonight for this matchup at $7,200 on FanDuel and if you can get 40 fantasy points out of him tonight that savings sure goes a long way to sure up some weaker roster spots above. If I move off of Boogie he will be the guy.

So basically for me it is to Mack or not to Mack? That is the roster move that will make this decision as I see little room to play elsewhere that is safe.

Good luck tonight.

Follow me on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73

GO DODGERS!