NBA DFS Position Coach - February 8, 2016

I really want to go stars and scrubs Monday, but good luck finding enough scrubs. I think your best bet is playing enough mid-priced guys to make room for one stud in your lineup. I would love to play Russell Westbrook and LeBron James, but  you may be able to get just as far with Kyrie Irving and Paul George.

Point Guard

Point guard is kind of a microcosm of Monday’s slate as a whole. There are expensive players I would love to play, but few cheap options that make the expensive ones possible. In the end, the best bet may be to avoid the top-tier options in favor of the second tier.

The top tier at point guard is clearly Russell Westbrook. Westbrook’s triple-double streak ended Saturday against the Warriors, but he still had 27 points and 12 assists. No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than the Suns this season, and it would be mildly surprising if Westbrook isn’t the top-scoring point guard of the day.

If you want a more affordable triple-double threat, Rajon Rondo has averaged 14.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 12. 1 assists and 2.1 steals in the seven games Rudy Gay has missed this season. Rondo may not provide the same value as Derrick Rose or Kyrie Irving, but there is little doubt he is safer.

Speaking of Irving, he has at least 19 points in six consecutive games, and it appears he has benefited from the coaching change in Cleveland. Irving has played 37 minutes in each of the last three games with Matthew Dellavedova out, and only the Suns have allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than the Kings this season.  

Derrick Rose is maddening for fantasy, but he has averaged 20.1 shot attempts in the three games Jimmy Butler has missed. Even if he only makes six of them, which wouldn’t be surprising, he should score close to 10 points with nine or 10 assists.

If you have to save some money at point guard, George Hill is probably your best bet. The Lakers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and Hill has averaged 15.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists over his last four games.

Shooting Guard

Marco Belinelli got the start and played 38 minutes with Rudy Gay and Ben McLemore both out. The Kings appear content limiting Omri Casspi to 30 minutes per game, which means Belinelli should see a similar workload if Gay and McLemore both sit Monday.

Dion Waiters is remarkably similar to Belinelli. Both are great bets to play 35 minutes or more, and both are streaky shooters who could easily go 2-for-11 or 6-for-11. Waiters probably has the better matchup, but I could easily see playing both guys to free up salary elsewhere.

J.R. Smith has been the other beneficiary of Matthew Dellavedova’s injury, playing at least 33 minutes in three consecutive games and scoring at least 14 points in each. Somebody on Cleveland will have to score points besides Lebron, Kyrie and Kevin Love, and Smith should have no problem getting open looks against James Anderson, Darren Collison and Marco Belinelli.

Affording him could be tough, but if you have to spend up at shooting guard, Victor Oladipo is your best bet. He has played at least 35 minutes in four consecutive games, scoring at least 18 points in each contest. Oladipo is averaging 16.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists as a starter this season, and he should remain a solid fantasy play so long as he is in the starting lineup.

Small Forward

Paul George is capable of matching LeBron James or Kevin Durant on any given day. While his inconsistency has made him frustrating to play at times, it has also kept his price down. Only two teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing small forwards than the Lakers this season, and George could easily score 30 points for the third consecutive game.

LeBron James has scored at least 20 points in 10 consecutive games, and he is the safest play against a Kings team that has given up the most points in the NBA this season. Paul George may be a better value, but LeBron is money in the bank.

The Bulls have allowed nearly as many fantasy points to opposing small forwards as the Lakers, and that was even before Jimmy Butler went down. The Bulls simply do not have anyone who can stay with Nicolas Batum consistently, and he has at least 21 points in each of his last two games. 

Stanley Johnson has averaged 41 minutes with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out the last two games, and while he may not play quite that much Monday, he should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of a Toronto team that is awfully weak on the wing since James Johnson went out. Stanley Johnson has at least 11 points and nine rebounds in three straight games, and I like his chances at a double-double Monday.

Jeff Green came back down to earth Saturday, and I expect him to stay there for a bit, but it is worth noting Marc Gasol is questionable and Green would be a great bet to bounce back if Gasol is out. Green has scored at least 20 points in four of his last six games.

Power Forward

You can try to find room for Anthony Davis if you want to, but you are better off just picking the best of the middle class at power forward Monday. At the very least you should get solid production at a modest price, and a couple of these players have a chance to really go off.

In Cody Zeller’s three games back, Kevin Love had a double-double, Hassan Whiteside had a triple-double, Chris Bosh scored 20 points and Marcin Gortat had a double-double. I just don’t see how Zeller and Marvin Williams are going to keep Taj Gibson off the glass, and he will be well worth the price if he gets a double-double.

Speaking of being well worth the price, Markieff Morris has averaged 39.2 fantasy points on DraftKings since Earl Watson took over in Phoenix. Paul Millsap is averaging 39.4 fantasy points this season on DraftKings and he costs $1,700 more. Morris will probably continue to be a bit inconsistent, especially while he remains on the Suns, but Phoenix only has seven actual NBA-caliber players on their roster, so Morris should get plenty of minutes and shots. You should play him now before his price rises even more.

Myles Turner costs roughly the same as Taj Gibson and Markieff Morris, and he is essentially a hybrid of those two. He is safer than Morris and has more upside than Gibson, and I could easily see playing Turner and Morris together in a tournament lineup or Gibson and Turner together in a cash lineup. Turner is the cheapest of the three on FantasyFeud, which certainly helps.

In three games against the Trail Blazers this season, Zach Randolph has averaged 19.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists. The Blazers just do not have anyone to match up with Z-Bo and Marc Gasol inside, and that was even before Noah Vonleh was listed as doubtful. Gasol is questionable, and while I’m probably playing Randolph either way, he would be a near must-start if Gasol sits.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins is averaging 30.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.6 blocks and 1.1 steals with Rudy Gay out this season. It will be interesting to see how the Cavs match up with Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein, but it is doubtful any of Cleveland’s bigs can slow him down.

Cody Zeller has been solid since returning from a shoulder injury, averaging 6.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 27.7 minutes in three games. The Bulls have been terrible against opposing bigs all season, and while Cody Zeller probably isn’t good enough to really take advantage, he has an excellent shot at a double-double, which would more than justify his modest price.

Pau Gasol has taken 16 shots in each of the games he played without Jimmy Butler this season, and if he gets 16 more Monday, he should easily top 20 points. Gasol should take advantage of Charlotte’s bigs just as easily as Taj Gibson, and he is a nice play if you can’t quite afford DeMarcus Cousins.

Nikola Vucevic has averaged 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds in three games against the Hawks this season, including 22 and nine Sunday. If you can’t afford Gasol or Cousins but don’t trust Cody Zeller, Vucevic is a solid alternative.