NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 23, 2015

OK, this slate is huge. 13 games huge. I cannot express enough to exercise extreme caution tonight in bankroll management. We have tons of possible players sitting due to injury which spells lots of late value. I expect a busier than normal night of these shenanigans and if you are not that guy who is going to sit by your phone then I recommend staying with safer plays. I myself will be playing about 50 percent of my normal play tonight.

I am going to focus on more of the cheaper plays today where I find them worthy with so many stars on the slate. This should help you free up some cash to spend up for superstars. Of course, value at some positions is better than others.

With a lot to go over we will get right into it.

Point Guard

As far as I am concerned tonight you go to the site you are playing on. Go to the PG selection and insert Russell Westbrook. First off he is facing the Lakers who are allowing 23 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to point guards. Now he has the dubious honor of being that proverbial late bullet. Oh, and he is Russell Westbrook who is averaging over 48 fantasy ppg and three double-doubles in the last five games while easily scoring into the double-digits. The Thunder may be 13-point favorites but all that tells me is Westbrook might put up 60 fantasy points before being benched.

Damian Lillard is a GTD suffering from plantar fasciitis. Tim Frazier played 41 minutes last night and scored over 30 fantasy points. The New Orleans Pelicans are allowing the most points (24.8) and the 28^th most fantasy points to point guards on the season. Simple rule here in DFS. When value like this pops up you play it. If Lillard plays then completely forget about Frazier unless you are watching re-runs.

Raymond Felton is playing at SG even though FanDuel has him at PG. Felton has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in nine straight hitting the 30 mark twice. Tonight he faces a Brooklyn team allowing the most points to shooting guards on the season at 25 and the 28^th most fantasy points to go with it. For the price of $4,900 on FanDuel, Felton is just what you look for… a guy who could get you 30 or more but almost guarantees you 20. I will be using Felton in cash games tonight if Frazier does not draw the start.

If you do not like the Westbrook blowout factor John Wall, despite having tender ribs, says he is going to play. If Wall does play tonight he scores very close to Westbrook at the elite starter tier. The Memphis Grizzlies are allowing 23.7 ppg and the 23^rd most fantasy ppg to point guards. In the last two games Wall has scored more than 45 fantasy ppg while posting three straight double-doubles. If you were extremely crafty you could even find a way to get Wall paired with Westbrook.

Last night everyone was on Jameer Nelson. I was not. Last night there was little need for value as opposed to tonight it is in high demand. The Denver-Phoenix game has a high 207.5 expected point total with Phoenix being almost nine-point favorites. Nelson should see plenty of minutes tonight if Emmanuel Mudiay remains out and before last night had scored more than 20 fantasy ppg in six straight going over 30 twice. If Danilo Gallinari is out he also gets a slight bump along with another guy we will get to.

J.J. Barea could get the start tonight facing a Brooklyn team allowing 21.2 ppg and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to point guards.  Deron Williams trashed talked and now, as luck has it, he has hamstring discomfort. Dallas has a great matchup today and Barea is another possible way to get some upside and all the superstars in.

Shooting Guard

I do not remember a night where I have had 10 shooting guards score 20 points or higher in my model until tonight. This is by far going to be one of the easiest positions to fill with value abound.

The guy to spend up on at SG also happens to have the worst matchup. Fozzy the Beard or James Harden, is facing an Orlando team allowing the eighth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards but on the positive side are allowing 21.4 ppg to them as well. Harden put up over 50 fantasy points on Monday versus the Charlotte Hornets and if I can afford him I can tell you now I will be playing him. On a huge slate like this I am going to be trying to get all the upside I can out of each position and maximize value that is what I deem safe enough for cash games. I will not sugar coat it, I do not like this game outside of maybe Harden and one other.

The game with the highest expected point total of the evening is the Pacers-Kings game coming in at 212. The Pacers are seven-point favorites and have defensive matchups galore. Monta Ellis over the last seven games has had two duds while scoring over 20 fantasy points three times, 30 fantasy points once, and 40 fantasy points once. The Kings are allowing a whopping 23.7 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. His price is fair and if you are not looking to spend up at SG then he is a great lower-priced option with some upside.

The Celtics are a great source of value on quite a few nights. You take Amir Johnson and Jared Sullinger out of the picture and that sure boosts Avery Bradley. The Hornets are allowing 23.9 ppg and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. Bradley had a few duds but made a decent comeback scoring over 20 fantasy points in his last game. If he gets hot he can easily net you over 30 fantasy points tonight.

If C.J. McCollum is out tonight (ankle) then Allen Crabbe -- who I have to be honest I am sure is said with a fancy twist like (Crab-bay) or if it is pronounced like the term for being in a bad mood (“Boy that Jerry Colvin sure gets crabby when he loses” -- is in a great spot for a great price. He is the near minimum across the industry and with both Lillard and McCollum out last night scored 19 points while putting up over 25 fantasy points. The Pelicans are allowing 21.5 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and if he starts you will not be crabby...I hope.

In what is a long position coach article full of "what ifs" I propose this…if Gallinari is out again then Will Barton becomes almost a must play. In the last two games he has scored 52 and 38 fantasy points while playing over 35 minutes in each. If this scenario plays out he will play heavy minutes again facing a Phoenix team that allows the 26^th most fantasy points to shooting guards.

Small Forward

Paul George absolutely lit my model up at this position tonight. His last outing was terrible where he only put up seven points, seven rebounds, and six assists for a whopping 22.4 fantasy points on FanDuel. This would be OK if his salary was under $5,000 but as we know it is much higher. The bottom line is George is in that Big Papi after two weeks without hitting a home run stage. Way overdue. The Kings are allowing 21.5 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards and George should be a fairly low owned except for my lineup…where he will reside.

How about Matt Barnes? In the last five out of six games he has scored more than 30 fantasy points while posting back-to-back double-doubles. The Wizards are allowing the most points at 24.1 and the most fantasy points as well to small forwards. He should be 100 percent owned and for good reason.

Slates are weird. Last position I was overloaded and really had to nitpick and narrow it down and this position I find a bunch of well…nothing.

Tobias Harris is one of only two guys that I am willing to consider tonight in the Houston-Orlando game in cash play. In the last five games Harris has scored more than 20 fantasy points four times hitting the 30 mark twice and the 40 mark once. He scored 20 points against a Knicks team that defends well so he should do well tonight facing a Houston team allowing the 28^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards. If Elfrid Payton sits tonight then Harris gets a huge boost.

I often find myself looking for players in any Celtics game. This is due to my propensity to watch them. Go Celtics! Tonight they face a formidable foe in the form of Nicolas Batum. Batum is averaging over 30 fantasy ppg facing a Celtics team allowing 21.4 ppg to small forwards in a game with a decent 202 expected point total. Should be an interesting one and I will be watching it.

Kevin Durant is facing the Lakers. I could go on and on and on about how the Lakers are horrible and such. We know this. We also know that Durant is an absolute monster on the court and can pretty much, along with Westbrook, have his way with most defenders. He is a great play if you can afford him. I am reserving him more for GPP on my end though.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis has the highest ceiling at the PF position tonight and therefore tops the list. The problem with Davis is every time I take him he makes me nervous because he has not scored 50 fantasy points in seven games. Usually I take this as a sign he is way overdue and probably should assume so tonight with the Portland lineup up in the air. The Trail Blazers are allowing the 16^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards which isn’t great but not all power forwards are Anthony Davis.

I really feel at some level you need some exposure to some Suns players tonight in some way. Jon Leuer finds himself in my articles and many others as well quite often and for good reason. His minutes are down a bit with Markieff Morris returning to the lineup but he is in a great spot to get you 25 fantasy points tonight facing a Nuggets team allowing 21.4 fantasy ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. I feel he still has a little value to squeeze out in GPP play.

You did not think I would forget my little Martian buddy Marvin Williams. I can see him peering through his long telescope from the moon looking in at the latest in humanities developments while practicing free throws. He is waiting, waiting for that one moment, that one second when the right matchup comes along, like tonight.

My beloved Celtics are allowing 21.2 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Williams is averaging over 23 fantasy ppg and even posted a double-double versus a tough Toronto defense last Thursday night. I will be hanging tight with my little friend in the green suit in my cash game lineup tonight.

The other guy I am running my cash games tonight if he gets the start is David Lee. Last night while filling in for Jared Sullinger at center he scored 13 points and eight rebounds in 22 minutes. As of the moment both Johnson and Sullinger are both GTD so keep an eye on this. If he starts for $4,100 on FanDuel he is a must play.

Let’s try some extreme value here. Channing Frye is averaging a touch under 20 fantasy ppg in the last five. A few good performances mixed with a few bad. The typical matchup-dependent player you fade in bad ones and take a flyer on in good ones. Like tonight, for instance, where the Rockets are allowing 23.8 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to power forwards in the NBA. His price is the near minimum across the industry and Frye could grab you a quick 25 fantasy points for pennies. Something he has done nearly three times in the last five. He is a risky play but could free up some major cash.

Center

The center position is loaded tonight at all price levels and you should easily find a decent matchup for whatever budget you have left when you get there.

OK, I am not going to go nuts. I am simply going to get in my car, take a drive down the nice country road taking in the scenery as I wind down mile after mile of farmland. I take the right fork in the road past the old oak tree and stop at the gate. The gate that reads…Green Acres. I ring the intercom and ask, “Is Zaza there?”

Zaza Pachulia is that guy I only use when I feel I can get 30 fantasy points out of him. In order for me to take this shot he has to score pretty high in my model. Like tonight. The Nets are one of the six fantasy cash register teams I like to pick on. They allow 21.5 ppg to centers which is high by the standard and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to boot. The game is also slated to be close with Dallas only 3.5-point favorites and a point guard in doubt.

Next up for cheapies is Ian Mahinmi. In the last three games Mahinmi has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg twice. His price is dirt cheap facing a Sacramento team that allows the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers. In the last four games he has had two double-doubles and should boogie out a third.

Mason Plumlee is in a great spot as well. He is another matchup-dependent player that you only take when everything lines up. Tonight he is playing as the eight point underdog in a game with a 202 expected point total facing a Pelicans team that allows 21.1 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to centers. Plumlee has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg twice in the last five games and has a legitimate shot again tonight. I almost just typed myself off of Zaza.

Kelly Olynyk looks like he belongs on a 1984 US Olympic team of some sort. I remember watching the Olympians with the Olynyk swag when I was a wee lad. If things stay the way they are he should start tonight facing the Hornets, and thus far when starts, he scores. His price is dirt cheap and he is a great play. I am not just saying this because I am a Celtics fan. I am saying this because he has put up 47 fantasy points before, a ceiling these other guys have not reached.

Enes Kanter is a great GPP play tonight facing a Lakers team allowing 22.3 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to centers. If this is a blowout his minutes should increase, I hope. The last time I took him versus the Lakers he gave me almost 40 fantasy points.

That is it until Christmas. Do not forget about the FantasyAlarm Christmas League. Top three winners will win a FantasyAlarm T-shirt. The entry is FREE. You cannot lose. First 19 only.

I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.

I will be posting another FantasyAlarm DFS Playbook PRO league tonight sometime around 4:30 pm EST.