NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: December 12, 2015

My wife says I talk to myself when I write. She makes comments about how funny it is because she says she can see my “wheels” turning while I work.

Today while driving I caught myself having a full conversation with myself. So now I am thinking about it and starting to realize I talk to myself a lot. To the point where I looked up at an old lady staring at me the other day at a red light and pretended I was on my Bluetooth in my car so I would not look absolutely insane. I must say I have some of the best conversations while hashing things out in conversation with myself. I solve lots of my problems this way.

The Fantasy Executive Corey Parson over dinner while I was on my phone last month near lineup lock in NYC at the DFS player’s conference, said the same thing. That he could see my wheels turning as I hash out the late minute swaps.

The thing is with the NBA you cannot relax. You cannot take any kind of comfort in assuming your guys are going to play. I find that crucial time between 6:30 and 7:00 pm EST especially stressful. I swear last night I must have made 10 lineup changes over three sites in the last eight minutes. Sadly, I was unable to get my swaps in on DK so I missed out on Draymond Green last night. Also in all this madness I somehow ended up taking out Ersan Ilyasova and putting in Jon Leuer. So once again I missed out on a great night from old Ersan.

My favorite part of the evening still remained checking the FantasyAlarm Playbook Pro NBA League that I have been running nightly. I look at every lineup in that contest. I am even starting to wonder if I should be sending a few of you tweets asking questions instead of the other way around.

This is what makes all this worth it. I am not a rich big wig high roller who jet sets across the country doing DFS stuff. I am a father, a business owner, and an avid sports fan. I do not play thousands of dollars each night. I play a certain amount and stick diligently to my bankroll management. Not because I want to, because I have to. Let’s cash some lineups tonight.

Point Guard

We have a few big wigs on the slate tonight for superstar power but it is limited at the point guard position. The one guy who I absolutely plan on using tonight in some way is Derrick Rose. The New Orleans Pelicans are allowing the most points in the NBA to point guards at 25.3 and the 29^th most fantasy points. In six out of the last eight games Rose has scored more than 25 fantasy and more than 30 on two occasions. He makes a fine cash and GPP play.

Here we are again. Is Klay Thompson going to play? If he does not play the guy you have to use once again is Stephen Curry. He was held slightly in check last night shooting percentage wise but ended up putting up a ton of fantasy points with the double overtime victory over my beloved Celtics. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 24.4 ppg to point guards in a game with a high 207 expected point total and Curry has had back to back double-doubles. I expect Curry to dominate tonight either way but only becomes a must play IF Thompson sits.

The Wizards are a little beat up. I had a GPP lineup go dead with Bradley Beal sitting last night and as of today it is up in the air if he plays tonight or not. For the low price of $4,500 on FanDuel Raymond Felton who is playing at SG but slotted at PG is a great value. Felton has scored over 25 fantasy points in three straight games now hitting 31 versus none other than these very same Wizards. With Washington allowing the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to shooting guards I expect Felton to be the true Wizard in a game with a high 208 expected point total. I smell a double-double.

Getting back to spending up you cannot ignore John Wall. There are a few great plays in the Washington-Dallas game and Wall is without a doubt one of them. He has had three double-doubles in the last four games and is averaging almost 40 fantasy ppg facing a Mavs team allowing 22 ppg to point guards. If Beal is out he gets a major boost tonight much like Curry if Thompson sits.

In four out of the last five games Patrick Beverley has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg. Tonight facing a Lakers team allowing 24.1 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to point guards, Beverley for $4,200 on FanDuel sure is inviting. We do have blowout potential here to watch for with a high -11.5 HOU line. The way I see it, if you can get 25 you scored.

Shooting Guard

Ok, this one is easy tonight. Insert James Harden and start building the rest of your lineup. Harden put up over 60 fantasy points versus the Wizards on Wednesday night. Tonight he gets the Lakers who play below college level at times. They are allowing 21.2 ppg and the 24^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and with Fozzy the Beard averaging nearly 50 fantasy ppg, blowout or not I am all in on Harden.

I hate taking Wesley Matthews. He is the shooting guard version of Ersan Ilyasova as far as my recency bias goes. The last two times I have taken him on FanDuel he scored 16.2 and 18.5 points. Far from what I consider value. Since then he has scored 53.7, 26, and 29.3. He is facing a Washington team allowing a whopping 23.7 ppg and the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. I am going back to this well for the price.

If you do not like the blowout risk with Harden but still want that stud shooting guard then Jimmy Butler is the guy. He may not do your laundry, he certainly will not make you a drink, and I have never seen him in a penguin suit, but he will, however, get you a ton of fantasy points. The Butler did do it, putting up back to back games of 40 fantasy points or more. He is averaging over 20 ppg and faces a Pelicans team that allows people in the crowd at random to score off of them. He is a great play in any format.

I am not a very religious man but I have to admit I love the pope. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or KCP to the layman is facing a Pacers team allowing 21.2 ppg and the 28^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. He has that double-digit scoring ability and 30 fantasy point upside in the right matchup like tonight. With this game slated to be a close one (DET -1) I well imagine KCP will get plenty of minutes and shot opportunities.

I love that late bullet. You have to have at least one. It is just the way I play. Those of you who play in the nightly FantasyAlarm league will notice I always have at least one. I feel dead if I do not have that one guy. Well a great late bullet with an incredible matchup tonight is Arron Afflalo. This game is slated to be fairly close with Portland being four point favorites. The Trailblazers are allowing 22.3 ppg to shooting guards and Afflalo is scoring into the double-digits most nights. His price is low at $4,700 on FanDuel and he is a great cash and GPP play tonight.

Small Forward

Nicolas Batum is the top option in my model today for the small forward position. I know a lot of people will be on Paul George but he actually scored lower than Jared Dudley today. This is, of course, in a model designed to flush out the best value at cost versus production. In the last five games Batum has scored over 30 and 40 fantasy points twice each with two double-doubles. The Celtics, as much as it saddens me to say, are allowing over 20 ppg to small forwards and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg as well. Batum should feast tonight.

Trevor Ariza (back) remains questionable for tonight. This opens the door again for Corey Brewer. In the two games since he has started he has scored 59.5 fantasy points on FanDuel. For two games at the low price of $4,100 that is superb value. Now you add in the fact that the Lakers are, well, the Lakers, and I honestly hope Ariza takes another day off.

If Beal sits tonight and as of right now, Garrett Temple is still listed as the starter, then Otto Porter gets a bump tonight. Although Dallas is tough defensively allowing the 5^th fewest fantasy ppg and a low 16.3 ppg to small forwards most of the scoring will be done by Wall, Gortat, and of course Otto Pop Porter who has produced good fantasy numbers in five straight games.

I always have a GPP lineup loaded with Celtics. Except for last night. Figures, right? In the last minute shuffle I exported another lineup over it and lost what might have been a big cash in. It was four Warriors and four Celtics with Andre Drummond.

Tonight I will make sure to get some exposure to Jae Crowder. In nine straight games Crowder has produced 20-plus fantasy points for what I consider a decent price across the industry. With this slated to be a close game with Charlotte being two-point favorites, Crowder should get plenty of minutes and net at least 25 fantasy points. Something he has done now in four of the last eight games.

Andre Iguodala is becoming a great cheap play on a nightly basis. Even when the Warriors are healthy he is playing more than 20 minutes per night and has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in three straight. He had a double-double last night and has a great shot at producing big time numbers tonight facing a Milwaukee team allowing the 27^th most fantasy ppg to small forwards.

Power Forward

Draymond Green was fantasy gold last night and I see that very same trend moving in the same direction tonight. This is the other guy I feel tonight you have to have with Harden in your cash game lineup. His fantasy numbers over the last nine games are top tier starter quality for mid-tier starter pricing. He is coming off a monster game facing a Milwaukee team allowing 24 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards.

If you feel like after a double overtime game you want to fade Green then the next-best option tonight for the price is Pau Gasol. He is playing center but FanDuel still has him in the PF slot. The Pelicans are allowing 21.5 ppg and the most fantasy ppg in the NBA to power forwards. Gasol has scored more than 40 fantasy points in four out of the last six games hitting the 50 mark twice for a fair price.

Marvin Williams. For some reason whenever I see his name I think of that little green Martian character on Bugs Bunny. Williams has been hot lately scoring into the double-digits in two or three games with a double-double. He also has scored nearly 25 fantasy ppg in four of the last five. For the low price of $5,100 facing a Celtics team tonight (sigh) allowing 22 ppg and the 22^nd most fantasy ppg as well to power forwards sure opens the door for some value.

Cue Snap, Cue Crackle, and Cue Pop. Enter the bevy of little woodland elves and their master Kristaps Porzingis. I have to admit for a few games my favorite Keebler character Kristaps was making me nervous. Then…boom. He’s back. He is averaging over 14 points and eight rebounds per game and has the ability on a nightly basis to score over 40 fantasy points when he is hot. Tonight he gets a Portland team allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Break out the icing, Porzingis is bringing cookies.

Sully, or Jared Sullinger, continues to dominate and look like every bit of the Celtics stud he is. As you might have guessed I am a Sullinger fan. He has two double-doubles in the last three games and is a rebound machine. In the last three games he has scored 36, 37, and 28 fantasy ppg. He is starting in the center position but FanDuel has him in the PF for a low $6,200 price tag. Just remember the Celtics are not undefeated and my man Sully is a bit overweight. He may get the night off for a red hot Kelly Olynyk.

Center

Dwight Howard tonight scores the highest in my model for centers. He has a number of things going for him. First, he is playing in the game with the highest expected point total on the evening. Second, he is playing the Lakers who are allowing 21.6 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to centers. In his last four games he has two double-doubles and should have his way with the Lakers tonight.

Tim Duncan took the night off early last night with the Spurs absolutely beating the crap out of the Lakers in the third. The Hawks are allowing 20 ppg and the 20^th most fantasy ppg to centers and Duncan has failed to score 20 fantasy points in three straight games. I expect him to have a big bounce-back game tonight.

I cannot help myself. Even though he is not starting I plan on using my giant Viking-looking friend Kelly Olynyk. Not only does he look like an extra in a bad 1980’s B surfer movie but he has scored over 30 fantasy points in three of the last five games hitting the 40 mark once. Tonight he gets a Hornets team allowing the 22^nd most fantasy ppg to centers and Sully is probably a bit worn out.

Well that is all for tonight. I will be back on later to see if you guys have any questions and as always you can hit me up on Twitter: @geraldcolvin73.

I will be posting another Position Coach league tonight sometime around 4:30 pm EST. Congrats to all of last night’s winners below. Great Job!