NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 8, 2016

So the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association) released the 2015 list of finalists for the various writing awards. Sadly, despite my hardest efforts and enormous amount of dedication to the DFS community I was not among them. Do not misunderstand me. I do not feel as though I am entitled to anything nor do I feel that anyone who did make the final cut are undeserving. To be honest I have never heard of most of them or read anything by them. Maybe I should. Perhaps I could learn something.

Among the finalists is Fantasy Alarm's own Jeff Mans along with Tommy G for radio show of the year and our own Ray Flowers also received the same nod for his show with Kyle Elfrink. Pretty cool if you ask me.

I am not sure you have noticed but I think Jeff is on the radio about 12 times a day. Pretty sure in the near future we are going to have a show called “Sleeping with Jeff Mans” where people tune in to hear him rant in his sleep. I can hear him now, “Catch the F*****G ball Sammy Watkins #Bills”.

I heard he even tweets in his sleep. When he does, I well imagine they go something like this…Just in case you were wondering what @Jeff_Mans looks like when he’s sleeping? #Sleep #DFS

So to Jeff Mans, Ray Flowers, and the rest of the finalists I say congratulations and good luck. I will be coming for you all next year.

I played heavier than usual last night for some reason and if you played me in the nightly leagues I run with our subscribers then you already know how well I did in DFS. Somedays you just have to be the guy that comes in 20th out of 20. It happens. So with my pity party thrown to the wayside, I bring you today's position coach article.

Point Guard

Stephen Curry is listed as a game-time decision but there is little doubt he is going to play tonight. The Warriors are 9.5-point favorites tonight in a game with the highest expected point total of the evening at 214.5. As long as Curry gets the minutes he should have no problem beating up on a Portland team allowing the 20^th most fantasy ppg to point guards. Point to note, as long as he gets the minutes.

The guy who I really like tonight is Damian Lillard. He played over 40 minutes on Wednesday night versus the Clippers racking up 20 points, seven rebounds, nine assists, and over 40 fantasy points. With the Warriors allowing 22 ppg and 24.9 ppg (second highest in NBA) to point guards over the last five this leaves little doubt in my mind that for the price, Lillard is the top play at the position tonight.

Mike Conley is dealing with an achilles issue. If he sits tonight then Mario Chalmers pretty much becomes a must play. The Nuggets are allowing 23.3 ppg and the third most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. Chalmers, in his last game with Conley sitting out, scored 23 points and over 45 fantasy points and should provide plenty of value tonight as long as Conley sits.

Goran Dragic is one of those typical matchup-dependent players who you take advantage of his low price at the right time. In his last seven-out-of-nine games, Dragic has scored more than 20 fantasy ppg going over 30 twice versus Orlando and Dallas. The Suns are allowing a whopping 29.5 ppg over the last five and the second most fantasy ppg to point guards on the season. I see a real shot at 30 fantasy points tonight for cheap here.

Jordan Clarkson kind of let me down last night. Actually, he single handedly helped in my demise across the board. Well, I am not going to take it personal and plan on going back to that well again tonight in some form. Not only do you get a late bullet, but the Thunder are allowing 23.7 ppg over the last five and the 25^th most fantasy ppg on the season to point guards. Clarkson has scored 25 fantasy points or more in five straight going over 30 twice and should see the minutes even in a blowout making him a fine cash game play tonight.

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson is the first guy I plug in lately as long as the matchup is favorable. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in four straight and tonight faces a Portland team allowing 21.2 ppg and 21.9 ppg over the last five to shooting guards. It seems blowout or not, Thompson keeps hitting that 40 mark, which is a safety net I feel comfortable with for his price.

If you do not want to use Thompson tonight then I would spend up a little bit and plug in DeMar DeRozan. He is averaging over 34 fantasy ppg and has that huge 50 fantasy point upside in the right matchup, like tonight. The last time he played the Wizards he scored over 50 fantasy points. I see no reason why he cannot repeat that tonight with Washington allowing the second most fantasy ppg to shooting guards and 22.2 ppg on the season.

The Pacers are facing one of the fantasy cash register teams in the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. The Pelicans are allowing the 25^th most fantasy ppg overall in a close game with the Pacers being two-point favorites. The game also has a decent 206 expected point total.

Monta Ellis has scored over 30 fantasy points in back-to-back games and should have no problem getting there again tonight with New Orleans allowing a whopping 24.1 ppg over the last five and the 27^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards on the season. This is the best guy tonight to pair with one of the bigger guns like Thompson or DeRozan and I have already inserted him in my lineup.

Courtney Lee is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game with a hip injury of some sort. I am no doctor but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. Sorry, always wanted to say that.

Anyhow, if Lee sits then Tony Allen becomes a great value play tonight. In the last four games Allen has been playing heavy minutes scoring over 20 and 30 fantasy points once. The Nuggets are allowing the most fantasy ppg to shooting guards, making Allen a great play for the near minimum price across the industry providing Lee is out.

I really hate to recommend Wesley Matthews but he scored higher today than any player at any other position in my model. This makes me take a closer look for sure. In his last game versus Sacramento he scored over 30 fantasy points while playing over 40 minutes. I do not see that happening again tonight, but he deserves a serious look with Milwaukee allowing an incredible 25.1 ppg to shooting guards over the last five games. GPP play at its finest.

Small Forward

Danilo Gallinari, who always makes me proud to be an Italian American, (well at least the good half) has been on fire since returning. In the three games since coming back from injury he is averaging over 36 fantasy ppg. The Grizzlies are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg on the season and 21.1 ppg to small forwards over the last five. For cash games I find the Italian Stallion the most reliable play in this matchup for the price at the position. Cue the Rocky theme song.

Otto Porter has a tough matchup tonight with the Raptors allowing the fifth fewest fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards. I know this sounds terrible but his price remains low at $6,000 on FanDuel. In his last five games he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg twice and 40 fantasy ppg once. The Raptors are allowing 22.2 ppg over the last five to small forwards and in a GPP Porter has great eye appeal.

Matt Barnes is back and he has been absolutely terrible in his last five games, failing to hit the 20 fantasy point mark one time in this span. The thing is, we have seen that 30 fantasy point upside he can provide in prime matchups. The Nuggets are allowing 23.1 ppg over the last five to the SF position and with both Conley and Lee in question it sure lends credence to Barnes having one hell of a night. His price is low and I plan on having exposure to him myself in GPP and if the two guys mentioned sit I will upgrade him to my cash game lineup.

Luol Deng as crazy as this sounds scores over 20 fantasy points every third game. You think I am lying? Check his game log over the last nine. I am not a big believer in this sort of thing but when I look at his matchup I find it more than possible. The Suns are a mess right now allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season and 21 ppg over the last five to small forwards. Deng has a bottom basement price tag and could grab you 23-to-25 fantasy points tonight for pennies.

Don’t hate me for doing this twice but another guy who absolutely lit my model up today was Chandler Parsons. His whole team rested last game except for him, opening the door for a huge night where he scored more than 30 fantasy points. The last time he faced the Bucks he scored 27.8 fantasy points on FanDuel and has scored over 30 fantasy points in four of his last 10  games. The Bucks are allowing a whopping 25.6 ppg over the last five and the fourth most fantasy ppg on the season to small forwards. I will be using Parsons tonight in some way.

Power Forward

I find that at the PF position tonight you are going to have little choice but to spend up to an extent. If you do not, the point difference per category could leave your needle slightly behind the cash line for the evening. We do have at least one good cheap option I will get to later.

Draymond Green has three triple-doubles in his last four games. I am a firm believer when a guy is hot you ride that train until it stops. Even though the Warriors are almost 10-point favorites I still have to put my money on a guy who has posted 53, 77, 50, and 30 fantasy points on FanDuel in his last four games.

If you decide the blowout risk is high and want to avoid Green then the way to go is Anthony Davis. He has scored over 100 fantasy points in his last two games combined and with the Pacers only being two-point favorites, Vegas is telling us we have little risk of a blowout. The matchup could be better but Davis leads this offense on a nightly basis and I see no reason why this would change tonight.

Thaddeus Young is way undervalued. His price is only $7,100 on FanDuel which I find low for his ceiling. He has easily scored over 20 fantasy ppg in 10 straight. In this span he has scored over 30 fantasy points six times going over the 40 fantasy point mark three times hitting 50 once. I know this sounds confusing, but what it means is he is pretty good. The Magic put on a horrible act versus the power forward position allowing 22.8 ppg over the last five and 21.2 ppg on the season. Young should do well tonight in a Nets offense without a viable point guard.

One guy I love tonight and more than likely will be using in cash games is Tristan Thompson. He is playing center nightly for Cleveland with little other options that can score. He is averaging well over 30 minutes per game in his last five and has scored over 20 fantasy points in three of them nearly hitting 30 once. He also has two double-doubles in his last three games. The Timberwolves are allowing 24.7 ppg over the last five and 21.3 ppg on the season to centers. Thompson has shown that 30 fantasy point upside and seems to be in a position tonight to do it again for the low price of $4,600 on FanDuel.

You want a cheap boom or bust GPP play who is in a prime matchup? Jabari Parker is about as reliable as public transportation. Sometimes it shows up on time but more often than not, you could have gotten to your destination sooner by walking. That is what it is like when using Parker. He is cheap and for a good reason. One night he will get you over 30 fantasy points and the next he will get you nine. So you take a stab when everything lines up. Like tonight. The Mavericks are allowing more points over the last five games to power forwards than any team in the NBA at 24.5. They also are allowing the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season to power forwards as well. Just keep in mind the last time he faced Dallas he failed to score 10 fantasy points, but he only played 18 minutes. Use at your own risk.

Center

Nikola Vucevic has failed to score more than 30 fantasy points in his last four games. Prior to this he scored over 40 fantasy points in four-of-six never going below 30. He scored higher than any other center in my model tonight and I am inclined to agree he is due. The Nets are allowing 22.3 ppg and the 26^th most fantasy ppg on the season while surrendering 24.3 ppg over the last five to centers. Right now he is sitting in my cash game lineup and it will take a lot to remove him.

The young stable boy has worked hard through the winter. When he is not tending to the horses he is playing basketball. The benefits of being rich is the luxury of having the money to afford both horses and your own private basketball court.

It is approaching game time. A 1979 Ford Pinto pulls up to the gate to gain entrance. It appears the stable boys ride has arrived.  He greets his guest and gets in the car. The driver executes a three-point turn and heads back out of the gate from which he came. The stable boy looks back and waves to the security guard standing under the giant sign that reads, “Green Acres”.

Zaza Pachulia is by far the safest cash game play at the center position tonight. His price remains at $6,700 even though he has scored over 30 fantasy ppg in six straight. The Bucks are allowing a really high 24.3 ppg over the last five games to centers and Zaza should have no trouble hitting that 30 mark tonight. He would be my No. 1 if his ceiling was a little higher.

You want to try and save a few bucks and grab a quick 25 fantasy points then take a look at Ian Mahinmi. He has been quiet as of late on the DFS front but has back-to-back games where he has scored over 20 fantasy points. The Pelicans are allowing the most fantasy ppg to centers on the season making him a fine GPP play to save some money and load up elsewhere.

Good luck tonight. It is a big slate with a lot of “what ifs”. Be cautious and pay attention.