NBA DFS Playbook Position Coach: January 5, 2016

I often find that perhaps the most frustrating thing is waking up to see you lost your cash games by 2.4 points. I instantly get angry at the thought of just a few points separating me from doubling my money. To be honest I would much rather wake up and see that I lost by 12 points or something like that. This is when you start to question yourself. Why did I take Darren Collison? It is usually about this time I start telling myself the results do not mean I made the wrong decision. The numbers added up. Everyone has a bad game, right? I mean, he is on the bench for a reason. I knew this going in. I counted on him, in my grand scheme, netting 25 fantasy points. If he had met my reasonable expectations I would have cashed. Simple as that.

The beauty of DFS is that I get to wake up and start fresh today.

So I decided to write from my office today as the cat refuses to leave me alone. This is what you get for being kind to animals. They pester you. Non-stop. The whole reason I chose a cat in the first place was because I was always under the assumption that they required less attention. They go to the bathroom in a litter box and they kind of just do their own thing. Or so I thought. I was a “dog” guy prior to getting “Kitty Colvin.” I know this is an unusual name for a cat but I assure you my life is anything but usual. Just like my cat. When I get to my door, he is waiting there, looking at me like a dog would. The second I open my eyes no matter the time of night he is right on me purring. If I get up to go the bathroom he is sitting at my laptop keeping my chair warm. Then, occasionally, he tries to hump my wife’s arm. So at this point I am wondering if he is watching me, waiting to claim my kingdom. Is that why he sits in my chair when I get up? Is the next Position Coach article going to be by Kitty Colvin?  Or maybe he just loves me. Or food, or both of us.

I prefer a four-game slate to a 10-game slate but my favorite is around six games. I find that just right. On a night like tonight I will only use one lineup. With so little to choose from I see no reason to go crazy trying to be the “sneaky” guy who can brag to all his DFS buddies that he played Jabari Parker and got 25 points out of him therefore achieving “value” while the rest of the world got 35 points playing Dirk Nowitzki. Who was craftier? So with my cat finding his way without a reason into a DFS article and my research done I bring you today’s position coach article.

Let’s cash some lineups.

Point Guard

Stephen Curry returned to action last night and absolutely lit it up. He scored 30 points against Charlotte, burning a lot of people and making all the people who took a wild guess he would play at 6:59 pm prior to lineup lock on FanDuel look like gurus. Tonight he gets to face the Lakers, who are playing a little better lately but are still allowing 23.7 ppg over the last five and the most fantasy ppg to point guards. This game has the highest expected point total of the evening at 215 but does have a slight blowout risk with the Warriors being 13-point favorites. I say either way Curry gets you 40 fantasy points tonight making him a must play on a small slate.

If you say nay to Curry and prefer something a little spicier, then deep down in the caves under Mordor resides Gollum, or Rajon Rondo. It has been awhile since I have removed his chains and I have informed him his precious is located on whichever point guard the Mavericks suit up for battle tonight. In his last two games he has scored over 100 fantasy points combined. Tonight he gets the Mavericks, who are allowing 22 ppg and 23.4 ppg over the last five to point guards. Gollum is loose and the Mavericks are in trouble. Just a note the Mavericks are tied with the Knicks for allowing the fewest assists per game in the NBA.

If you do not like either of these guys then I cannot imagine a world where you go lower than Michael Carter-Williams as your PG1. Williams has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in four straight going over the 40 mark once. The Bulls are allowing a whopping 24.8 ppg to point guards over the last five and the 25^th most fantasy ppg. I think this game could be the sneaky stack of the night tonight and I plan on having some exposure to it somewhere in my lineup.

Here is my daily "what if" section of the article. If Deron Williams sits tonight or remains limited and J.J. Barea draws the start he becomes an excellent salary relief play for cash and GPP. The Kings are allowing 22.7 ppg, the second most fantasy ppg, and 26.4 ppg over the last five to point guards. This game has a high 212 expected point total and Barea could get you over 30 fantasy points for peanuts.

Here is my crystal ball fortune for the evening. With Stephen Curry all banged up and the Warriors playing the Lakers, who I am pretty sure can be beaten by the bench, then why not take this chance to rest some of your stars? How about in typical NBA fashion this news will be released at 9:30 pm EST. So I say this, why not take $1 or $2 just like buying a lottery ticket and insert Shaun Livingston in a GPP lineup? Just a thought.

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson is the top play at the SG position tonight and already in my lineup. He has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three straight and tonight gets the Lakers who are allowing 23.1 ppg and the 25^th most fantasy ppg to shooting guards. Unless the Warriors pull a fast one tonight you have to play him.

With Derrick Rose questionable, Jimmy Butler runs close behind Thompson in my model. Butler has scored over 40 fantasy ppg in three straight putting up over 50 fantasy points in his last game versus Toronto scoring 42 points over 39 minutes. The Bucks are allowing 24.3 ppg over the last five and 20.8 ppg on the season to shooting guards and if you are crafty you could pair him with Thompson tonight.

Marco Belinelli is quietly putting up great fantasy numbers for the near minimum across the industry. He has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in three straight while consistently playing over 20 minutes per game nightly. The matchup is less than favorable with the Mavericks allowing the sixth fewest fantasy ppg to shooting guards, but for the price he could be worth a flyer to get some more exposure for cheap to a game with a 212 expected point total.

Arron Afflalo put up over 40 fantasy points in his last game versus Atlanta while scoring 38 points. Now it is totally insane to expect this again tonight. He does, however, get another shot tonight and for the price why not with the Hawks allowing 22.1 ppg over the last five to shooting guards.

Small Forward

Nikola Mirotic has a great matchup tonight. The Bucks are allowing 21.3 ppg, the fourth most fantasy ppg, and 25 ppg over the last five to small forwards. Mirotic is inconsistent, hence the low price, but on a night like tonight with slim pickings to choose from I find Mirotic to be the best play for the price with a 30 fantasy point upside.

FanDuel still has Omri Casspi (GTD – back) in the three even though for a long time he has been playing in the four. This is a good thing tonight with so little to choose from. The Mavericks are allowing 20.9 ppg over the last five to power forwards and Casspi, when he gets hot, can get you 40 fantasy points while a low will get you 20. On a night like tonight I will take it. He was out last night with back soreness so keep a close eye on this one.

Carmelo Anthony I suspect will be highly owned tonight. Have you seen our choices at small forward? Atlanta is allowing nearly 20 ppg to small forwards and Anthony is averaging over 35 fantasy ppg. As of right now I plan on using Casspi / Mirotic but if Casspi is out I will make a cut elsewhere and upgrade to Anthony. I see little choice. Out of the three, though, I prefer him the least.

This position is full of guys who are scoring dependent which always makes me nervous.

Power Forward

The one superstar I plan on figuring out a way to fit in my lineup by night's end is Draymond Green. He has three triple-doubles in the last three games while scoring over 50 fantasy points in each, hitting 70 once. The Lakers are allowing the 24^th most fantasy ppg to power forwards and Green should line your wallets with just that -- green. On this small slate you have no choice but to play him. If he puts up 60 fantasy points your needle will stay just below the cash line for the night leaving you grumpy and with no one to talk to but the cat. You will have already pissed off the wife by now. Or at least I would have.

Even though the Mavericks on paper have a great matchup across the board I find it hard to play most of them. They have low 20 fantasy ppg ceilings. I hate that. On a night like tonight it is all about upside. Now Dirk Nowitzki even though scoring highest in my model only has a 30 fantasy point upside. Regardless of matchup. He has scored 30 fantasy points or more in four of his last seven and should get to that mark tonight facing a Kings team allowing the third most fantasy ppg on the season and 23.6 ppg over the last five to power forwards. Playing Dirk will not make you feel like a jerk tonight. He won’t leave you dazzled either.

Taj Gibson is the guy I am thinking is best to pair with Green tonight as of right now. The matchup could not be better with Milwaukee allowing 23.4 ppg (second highest in NBA) and the 21^st most fantasy ppg to power forwards. Gibson has scored over 20 fantasy ppg in seven straight going over the 30 mark twice against tougher Detroit and Indiana defenses. For the price I will be visiting the Taj-Ma-Hall tonight.

Paul Millsap has a better matchup tonight than it looks like. The Knicks are allowing the 10^th fewest fantasy ppg and a low 19.7 ppg to power forwards on the season. For his price this stinks and you would have to be a fool to play him, right? Wrong, here is where you have to take advantage of a bad situation. Over the last five games the Knicks are allowing a whopping 23.5 ppg to power forwards. I would say this makes him worthy of a chance if you fade Green especially since he has scored more than 40 fantasy ppg in four straight.

Center

There are only two centers I will consider playing tonight. One cheap and one mid-priced.

The last leaves have fallen and the land has settled into a wintery abyss. You see tracks of various wild animals scattered about in the snow as you walk down the long driveway. You think to yourself how happy you are to have had the common sense to have worn snow boots as you trudge through the unplowed snow. You reach a giant gate with words “Green Acres” laid out for the world to see and press the button on the intercom.

“Hello”, you say.

“Yes, can I help you?” a voice answers in a thick accent.

You lean in close and whisper into the intercom, “Is Zaza there?”

Zaza Pachulia is the one guy in the Mavericks lineup you can count on nightly to give you what you pay for. He has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in five straight with three double-doubles. The Kings are allowing 23.1 ppg to centers over the last five and the 26^th most fantasy ppg to centers on the season. With Zaza tearing it up I expect him to boogie all over the Kings tonight.

I have been hitting pay dirt playing cheap centers in my cash game lineups so why not again tonight. The guy I plan on using and perhaps I just like to take a chance when using only one lineup is Robin Lopez. The last time he played Atlanta two nights ago he scored 16 points with 11 rebounds while netting over 35 fantasy points. He has scored over 30 fantasy ppg twice now in his last three and with the Hawks allowing a whopping (this is not a typo) 31.2 ppg to centers over the last five games I see no choice but to play him.

Good luck tonight.