UPDATED 9/22/2025: Added and removed players, along with updated ADPs to account for offseason news, moves, and adjusted draft positions.

Before every season, players are ranked, rated, and drafted at a specific ADP. I’m here to deliver the fantasy basketball busts at those draft positions. A bust doesn’t mean you don’t like a player; it means you don’t like where they’re drafting, and you’re not going to get a good ROI or return on investment where they’re being picked. Let’s dive into the top fantasy basketball drops for the 2025-’26 season. For what it’s worth, this will be updated if and when more moves are made this offseason. Let’s dive in.

 

 

 

Fantasy Basketball Busts

Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (ADP - 24.8)

This has nothing to do with the player because Scottie Barnes is really good, but it does have to do with the ADP more than anything. The scoring didn’t level up at all from 2023 to 2024, and the efficiency took a hit across the board. He shot worse from the field, from three, and from the foul line. In fact, the ONLY category he improved in was steals, and he went from 1.3 to 1.4.

I’m not saying he won’t improve across the board, but let’s talk about why it might be challenging to have a better campaign than he did a year ago. Heading into the year, the Raptors are healthy. Immanuel Quickley played 33 games last year. RJ Barrett played 58. Jakob Poeltl was at 57. Brandon Ingram didn’t play a single minute for the Raptors post-trade.

Barnes was one of THREE Raptors last year that posted a usage rate of at least 25% and now you’re dropping Brandon Ingram into that equation. Not sure if Toronto knows this yet, but there’s only one ball. He has had a 27% USG or better in six straight seasons, and in two of his last three, it’s been at least 30%. That’s not going to help Barnes’ case for an early second-round draft pick. On top of that, just diving into more data thanks to our friends at add more funds, Barnes’ usage dipped to just 23% when sharing the floor with Quickley and Barrett last year, and that was a 285-minute sample.

 

 

 

Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz (ADP - 45.2)

There’s a lot to unpack when it comes to the Utah Jazz, but once again, they’re going to be a dumpster fire and lose a boatload of games. We’ve seen over the last couple of seasons what that means; their best players don’t play a lot at the end of the year. It got so bad in 2024 that Utah was fined by the league for resting players who weren’t even injured. That player is Lauri Markkanen.

When Markkanen was on the floor, he took a massive step backwards, averaging 19 PPG, 5.9 RPG, and 1.5 APG, which were significantly lower than the year prior. He is also a 45% shooter and 37% from three for his career, and it was at 42% FG and 35% from three. He’s only played 60 games in two of his last seven seasons and no more than 55 in his last two seasons.

His usage rate has decreased from 26.6% to 25% to 24% during his three years with the Jazz, and with the addition of Ace Bailey this year, Isaiah Collier last year, and Keyonte George the year before, there is no shortage of ball-handlers in Utah. The dip in rebounds is a BAD sign for a guy who does not really do anything other than score.

Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets (ADP - 76.2)

I’m not sure how much Cam Thomas and the Brooklyn Nets actually like each other. I think the answer is not very much at all. I also think highly of Cam Thomas, the scorer, but he hasn’t done much else at the NBA level. He averaged 24 PPG last year, but under Jordi Fernandez, you must defend and compete, or you’ll find yourself not starting or minutes will be cut.

The Nets' offseason was interesting because they drafted FIVE times in the first round of the draft. They also traded for Michael Porter and Terrance Mann. The Nets are going to be bad – again – and at year's end, they’ll be mixing in all of their young players, and their regulars will not be on the floor much.

Just looking at some of the regulars' minutes from the end of the 2024-’25 season;

  • Nic Claxton - rested in three of the final eight. Only played more than 23 minutes in five of seven games he appeared in.
  • Cameron Johnson - final game he played in was 24 minutes (no foul trouble, three-point win) and sat out the final seven games of the year.
  • D’Angelo Russell - Plays in only four of 12 of the final games.

It’s hard to imagine Thomas’ end of season doesn’t follow the same timeline as Johnson and Russell’s if/when/definitely when the Nets season is all but over. Thomas' ADP is too high for the fact that his availability has been lacking to this point, team team isn’t heavily invested in Thomas, and the youth movement is upon us.

 

 

 

Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP - 77.5)

Since 2018, Paul George has played more than 56 games just once, and last year, in his first year in Philadelphia, he played just 41 games. Not only did he play only 41 games, but he also averaged his fewest points per game since the 2012-’13 season. Would you bet the over or under 41 games played this season, considering he’s 35 and just the other, George, underwent arthroscopic surgery on his knee?

RUH ROH.

This is an injury that happened during an offseason workout, not connected to anything he had last year, apparently. So, a new injury to a 35-year-old injury-prone player entering his 16th season in the NBA? I completely believe he’s going to be healthy this season, right? RIGHT?

As someone who understands how good to great he’s been throughout his whole career. It’s hard to envision PG13 paying off a sixth-round ADP. George’s efficiency dropped from the field and from three as well, so if that’s also something that’s going to continue, outside of the peripheral stats, there’s not a lot going for George. With the complete and total weirdness of this 76ers team, I’d be hard-pressed to see George even be a top-100 fantasy player this season, especially now that he’s going into the year already having knee surgery.

Brandon Ingram, Toronto Raptors (ADP - 83.7)

Brandon Ingram made his debut back in 2016, and he played 79 games in that season. Almost 10 years later, Ingram has yet to come close to that game played total. 64 was the most he’s played since. Which means he wouldn’t qualify for ANY season award in any previous season if the NBA awards required 65 games played.

Now, onto the basketball side of things. He will make his Raptors debut this year, and this is one of the weirdest teams in the NBA. Their projected starting five is Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Ingram, RJ Barrett, and Jakob Poeltl. Barnes was a 19 PPG scorer last year. Barrett was at 21.1. Quickley sat at 17.1. Even Jakob Poeltl averaged a career-high 14.5 PPG. There’s going to be a massive step back for everyone, seemingly, but can Ingram come close to sustaining his 23 PPG output he had in New Orleans over a six year stretch?

He’s a very good passer and solid rebounder, but again, there’s only one ball, and Immanuel Quickley, Scottie Barnes, and RJ Barrett all averaged over five assists per game. Jakob Poeltl, Barnes, and Barrett averaged over five rebounds. Something is going to give, and Brandon Ingram, who’s the newest member of this starting five, is likely going to take a hit numbers-wise.

So numbers likely to dip, plus his inability to stay healthy, make it extremely risky to pick him in the 80s.

 

Â