The EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway is the first race in the Round of 12 in the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs. It’s also the only “standard” race in this round which means it’s a great race to pounce on some PrizePicks NASCAR plays today. My favorite plays are below and if you want any more explanation for them, check out the NASCAR DFS Playbook, Race Projections, and the NASCAR DFS Podcast for this race on Sunday at Texas.

 

An important note: The fantasy points scoring on PrizePicks is identical to that of DraftKings which should also help when looking at projections.

Alex Bowman OVER 44.5 Fantasy Points

Bowman is starting P17 but ran top-3 speeds in practice. That gives him a ton of position differential points upside as does the fact that he’s run very well at intermediate tracks this year. The Hendrick cars have been quick at these type tracks. If Bowman finishes P8 or better, without getting any laps led or fastest laps, he hits the over on the prop. He’s finished top-10 in six of eight similar races this year.

Chase Elliott UNDER 36.5 NASCAR Points

In order to hit the over on this, Elliott has to finish P4 or better or win one stage and finish P5 or better. I don’t see that happening. He’s not finished in the top-five in the last five Texas races and only has two top-10s in eight similar races this year. Speaking of this weekend specifically, he didn’t show top-10 speed in practice either despite starting P6. Right now he’s simply been coasting on points in playoffs and that’s likely to continue this weekend given the track and his history at it and similar tracks.

William Byron OVER 45.5 Fantasy Points

Byron is my pick to win the race and has been much of this week. He’s been very fast since the playoffs started; now that he’s not the Hendrick test car as he put it. This weekend at practice Byron showed top-three speed and will start P3. That gives him a great shot to lead a chunk of laps and stick toward the front of the pack all race long. Texas is a track position track meaning if you have track position it’s easier to hold it. If he gets a handful of fastest laps and/or laps led and finishes where he starts he hits the over, if he wins he hits even if he only leads the last lap, and if he finishes P2 and gets six combined laps led and fastest laps he hits the over.

Austin Cindric UNDER 27.5 NASCAR Points

Cindric hasn’t been great at 1.5-mile tracks this year. He’s gone backward more than he’s moved up at them as well. While he’s starting in a spot that would net him the over here, the practice speeds, his history here, and history at similar tracks all suggest he’ll move backward and miss the over. That leaves us taking the under. As long as he finishes P14 or worse, the under hits here.

Kevin Harvick UNDER 13.5 Cars Passed

This is not shaping up as a weekend for Harvick. Sure, his track history here is very good. However, the speed he’s shown this weekend isn’t. Nor is the ability to finish in the top-10 at similar tracks this year. Harvick has an average finish of 13.9 in eight similar tracks with four top-10s. In order to hit the over he needs to pass 14 cars a.k.a finish P9. That would be doable if this wasn’t tough to pass Texas and he showed better speed at practice. Neither of those things are true. He may have finished P10-P12, but that still puts the under in play.

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