The Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway is Sunday. The 1.33-mile concrete tri-oval has some interesting characteristics that makes it similar to a few other tracks on the NASCAR schedule. Last year in the 2021 Ally 400, we saw one driver dominate the race, that’s likely not the case again this year though. That means we’re in a great spot for props like we see on PrizePicks for the race. If you want to see all of the strategy and data for the race, you can read through the Track Breakdown. The DFS Playbook and the NASCAR Projections should illuminate a bit more on why these picks make sense to hit on Sunday. Keep in mind the PrizePicks scoring is identical to DraftKings when looking at projections and previous race scoring histories.

 

Alex Bowman OVER 33.5 Fantasy Points

Bowman starts P12 on Sunday, that’s good for 31 points off the bat. He just needs to move up two spots to hit this over. He showed top-10 speed in practice and at the track that is among the most comparable to Nashville, Dover, he ran in the top-five. The Hendrick cars are known for long-run speed at these types of tracks and that will do Bowman well here.

Christopher Bell OVER 37.5 Fantasy Points

Bell has been great this year. While he doesn’t have a win on the year, he does have several top fives at tracks like Nashville including Dover and Darlington. Bell starting P9 means he starts with 35 fantasy points, much like Bowman that means he just needs to move up two spots over the course of the 300 laps of the race. He showed top-five speed at practice as well indicating he should be able to move up with some ease.

Chase Elliott OVER 41.5 Fantasy Points

Elliott dominated, and won, at Dover earlier this year. He’s been arguably the most consistently good Hendrick car this year as well. Are we sensing a theme here with the other two picks above him? Elliott starts P4 which is 40 fantasy points so just moving up one spot hits the over not to mention the fastest laps and possible laps led that he can produce as well. This seems like a line that’s too low.

Bubba Wallace UNDER 46.5 Fantasy Points

Yes, Wallace is starting P30. Yes, Wallace ran short and long-run speeds that were either best or second-best in practice. Yes, that gives Wallace a theoretical huge amount of position differential points and a shot to score well. He’s the thing though. He’s yet to put together a complete race at an intermediate track this year. Whether it be getting into the wall, a tire going down, or his pit crew having issues, he’s struggled to produce good results this year. To hit the over he needs a P13 finish without fastest laps or laps led, or one spot further back for every three fastest laps he gets. That’s a tough prop to hit the over on.

Chase Briscoe OVER 42.5 Fantasy Points

Briscoe is starting P28. That’s mainly due to his rough qualifying run in which he got loose in Turns 1 & 2 and that sapped all of his speed. He ran in the top-15 in practice fairly easily. He also won Phoenix, a comparable track, and P13 at Dover after starting P23, good for 40 fantasy points. If he gets back into the top-15 with a few fastest laps, the prop hits.

Kyle Larson UNDER 38.5 Laps Led

Larson has topped this line just once all year. In fact at Dover, where he started P3, just like now, he only led 15 laps while the rest of this teammates led chunks of laps. He’s also without his Crew Chief this week, and the next three, for issues on pit road last race. It hasn’t been the same dominating Larson that we saw here last year and so the under is the better shot to hit this week.

 

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