As we turn the page on another Craftsman Truck Series race it’s worth acknowledging Carson Hocevar and last week’s win. Admittedly, I did just one lineup since I couldn’t personally put a ton of attention towards DFS last week. He didn’t make my lineup, I was hoping to ride the wave of a low-owned Nick Sanchez as a dominator. It was paying off until it didn’t, but still very exciting to see Hocevar secure his first career win. This is a big sports week with The Masters taking place, MLB in full swing, NBA and NHL regular seasons winding down, and NASCAR heads to Bristol, Tennessee for the third straight year of dirt racing. Admittedly, this is another track I don’t love for DFS. This is a short track and we’re a bit robbed of dominator points. But in general, I just haven’t enjoyed watching the Trucks or Cup Series on dirt. Now others may feel differently, and that’s totally fine. I still consider this week to be a lot like the more recent versions of the Clash at the Coliseum. I enjoy watching them, but can’t bring myself to invest a ton of DFS bankroll on such gimmicky races. But I digress, let’s dig into this week’s NASCAR DFS research and top plays for the Weather Guard Truck Race on Dirt.

 

Bristol Motor Speedway is a half-mile high-banked short track that tends to deliver chaos even when there isn’t a mountain of dirt on the track. This race is a “vortex theory” truthers dream given how much dirt gets kicked up between both races. We also tend to see more dirt racers and Cup Series drivers enter into the Truck Series race and that’s no different this weekend as Chase Briscoe, William Byron, and Joey Logano will make their presence known in this race. Fortunately, the Truck Series race does have a history of racing more on dirt than the Cup Series so we have a little more data to pull from. Each of the last two years, the Truck Series has raced at Bristol Dirt and Knoxville Speedway, while having previously raced at Eldora up through the 2019 season. So we have a good idea of who could be good here ahead of the Saturday night heat races.

This race is set for 150 laps and assuming about 25-30% of the race is run under caution, that gives us less than 100 dominator points to work with. Martin Truex Jr. won this race after starting P15 two years ago. He led 105 laps with 53 fastest laps in a truly dominating performance. Sheldon Creed led 38 laps early in the race, but gave those dominator points back via negative place differential since he started P3 and finished 16th. The 2021 race only saw seven of the 40 drivers gain ten spots of PD, but four of the drivers that finished in the top 15, started outside the top 25. Daniel Suarez came close to making that group as he qualified P26 but finished 17th. Last year’s race was a little more predictable. Ben Rhodes started on the front row, led 95 laps with 39 fastest laps and he went on to win the race. Carson Hocevar finished second while leading 55 laps. Similarly, only six drivers in that field gained ten or more spots of PD with five of them finishing 16th or better.

I think it’s also worth noting that, despite the variance factor of these races, we still tend to see the best trucks finish up front. That’s not to say to fade the dirt specialists, but they haven’t blown away the competition. Mike Marlar started P21 in last year’s race and finished 17th. Buddy Kofoid started P32 and finished 27th (but he did have an average running position of 13th). The 2021 race that Truex won even saw plenty of Truck Series regulars and full-time Cup drivers occupy the top 20. So while we have seen plenty of dirt racers cross over into this race, the best performances have been had by drivers more familiar with this equipment, rather than the track.

Now another blow we were dealt was losing the practice sessions on Friday and the Saturday heat races are in flux due to the weather as well. So I’m even more inclined to play light (only five lineups in the Happy Hour) and saving bankroll for Martinsville next week. Once we know the starting order for Saturday’s race I’ll published the NASCAR DFS Core Plays and will post a link in the NASCAR DFS Discord.

NASCAR DFS Driver Pool

Joey Logano ($10,400)

Logano desperately needs the heat races to be run on Saturday otherwise he won’t make the actual race. Yes, you read that right. Logano’s in the 66-truck for Thorsport and that isn’t an automatic to make the truck race so in a sense, he does need to qualify via the heat races. So if the races are cancelled he won’t qualify for the main truck race. Now his resume on dirt is limited, but at the Cup level he won the inaugural race two years ago leading 61 laps and he finished third in last year’s dirt race. Seems a little odd, but he’s followed through in a small sample size and if he does manage to get into this race he should offer some PD unless he passes everybody in his heat race. If, for whatever reason, the heats are cancelled then you can pivot some exposure to William Byron, who is running the 51-truck for Kyle Busch Motorsports and I’ll offer a more thorough update on him once we know where he’s starting. Update: Logano looked comfortable and in control of the 66-trtuck as expected. This shouldn't come as too much of a surprise since he was in play regardless of where he was starting. William Byron struggled at the start of the third heat, but did bounce back and finish fifth. I don't love him a whole lot because it did look like he was just trying to get some laps in, but he'll have PD to work with.

Ben Rhodes ($10,300)

Rhodes dominated this race a year ago. He started on the front row and won the first two stages before winning the race while leading 95 total laps. He posted a driver rating of 149.2 in that race and it only helps his case that he finished second to Martin Truex Jr. in the 2021 Truck race on dirt. Rhodes also grabbed top ten finishes at both Knoxville races in 2021 and 2022 so he seems pretty comfortable in this type of race. Update: Rhodes won his heat but didn't score the most points. He still looked so strong and ran clean, easily winning his heat. He'll be a candidate to win and collect dominator points once again.

Chase Briscoe ($9,900)

I’m giving the primary nod to Briscoe over Byron simply because Briscoe has more dirt racing experience. Briscoe nearly won last year’s Cup Series race on dirt before contact with Tyler Reddick in the final turn spun both. But Briscoe seems excited to pilot the 22-truck for AM Racing. He’s previously run the Knoxville dirt race in the Truck Series but wrecked in that race two years ago, but he did finish fifth in the inaugural Truck race at BrisDirt in 2021 after starting P33. He grew up racing bullrings in cars owned by his father and grand father so I expect him to contend and possibly win this race. Update: Good run for Briscoe in Heat #2. He won't start super far up front, but looked pretty good in the heat race and is a fine play in Tournaments with some win equity.

Zane Smith ($9,700)

I tried to avoid writing up so many top end plays, but Zane Smith looked great in his heat race moving up through the field with ease and scoring a ton of Heat points. He'll start pretty damn high, but that's how it goes with this qualifying format. Good candidate for early dominator points and he could possibly lock in his third win of the season.

Ty Majeski ($9,500)

Majeski was a dud for yours truly last week as he was my pick to win and he had a very quiet day. He was very impressive on dirt a year ago evidenced by his 21 fastest laps in this race without leading a single lap. He ultimately finished outside the top 20 for a bad DFS day, but the speed was there and he had an average running position in the top ten and a 105.6 driver rating. Last year at Knoxville he started P7 and finished fourth with a 102.5 driver rating. Majeski carries a modified background so he’s used to sliding around the track and moving his way up through the field. He should qualify well and be a contender for precious dominator points. I will say that Christian Eckes is priced just below Majeski and he does have a small sample size in dirt races in the Truck Series. He grabbed a top five at this race a year ago, finished 12th at Knoxville last year, and he finished 6th in his lone race at Eldora back in 2019. I do want to see where he starts for this race before committing exposure to him. Keep him on your radar. Update: Good candidate here to dominate the race and win. Looked great in his heat race as he was able to move up through his heat race and finish well.

Stewart Friesen ($9,200)

Friesen is actually one of the more experienced dirt racers in the Truck Series, but we just haven’t seen the production translate the last few years. He started P3 last year before finishing 11th and he started P7 in 2021 before finishing 12th. He grabbed a top five in last year’s Knoxville race with a 130.2 driver rating, but finished 27th in the 2021 race. Now he did have more success at Eldora with three straight finishes in the top three from 2017-2019 including a win in the final race at that track. I’m hoping he can eventually snap out of it and get a good run at some point because he has the equipment and experience to contend in this race. Update: Friesen won the second Heat race, but was outscored by Zane Smith. Still a solid run for Friesen and he'll start pretty high.

Carson Hocevar ($8,800)

It looked like Hocevar had an issue early in the fourth heat race. He had some contact with Enfinger and struggled for the remaining 14 laps and didn't finish well. But he'll have some PD to work with and will likely be a popular DFS target. He loves dirt racing and has some experience on this surface, but he'll need to work his way through the field and stay clean.

Grant Enfinger ($8,600)

We haven’t seen Enfinger’s huge ceiling the last few weeks, but I do think he can win this race. He’s not a noted dirt racer, but his results do lend some weight to the argument. He’s finished 6th and 8th at Bristol Dirt, he finished 3rd and 8th at Knoxville, and he finished 2nd, 3rd, and 4th at Eldora. Clearly it looks like there’s a top ten floor if he stays clean with top five upside and I truly do believe he can win here.

Parker Kligerman ($8,500)

Kligerman has run two races so far this year with Henderson Motorsports and he has a total of (checks notes) negative-three fantasy points on DraftKings. You read that right. Seems wild considering he got a full-time ride in the Xfinity Series and was a DFS darling a year ago in the Truck Series. To be fair, the two races he’s run this year have been high variance races. Casual players may look at his score and overlook him, but I trust him on dirt especially at the very friendly price tag of $8,500. He’s much better than an average salary driver. He finished fourth in this race last year and eighth the year before. Update: Kligerman finished fourth in the second Heat race. And it's not that he looked awful but he was racing against Stewart Friesen, Zane Smith, Chase Briscoe, Christian Eckes, Jake Garcia, and Tyler Ankrum. It was a pretty loaded heat and he just got outraced and won't start incredibly well. He should be a popular PD candidate however and I'm still fine going back to the well with him.

Matt Crafton ($8,200)

There probably isn’t much win equity with Crafton in this race, because he honestly doesn’t carry much win equity elsewhere, but he’s been around the Truck Series for a while and has competed in plenty of dirt races. In seven races at Eldora he has a win and never finished worse than tenth. At this particular track he’s finished 9th and 14th while at Knoxville he’s finished 6th and 7th. This field is a little more loaded than his other dirt races in the Truck Series but he’s fairly reliable overall. Update: Crafton looked great in his heat race and will start toward the front. He's mostly a GPP play since I don't know if he'll dominate a ton of laps, but he could be contrarian.

Jonathan Davenport ($8,000)

Davenport will be on most people’s radar this weekend. He’s running the 7-truck for Spire Motorsports and he’ll be racing for Kaulig in the Cup Series. I fully anticipate every NASCAR DFS provider to at least mention Davenport because he’ll likely have the most dirt racing experience in the field. He won the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series in 2015, 2018, and 2019 and he’s a five-time World 100 champion at Eldora (thanks Wikipedia). He is one of the most accomplished dirt racers in history so he’s worth mentioning at the very least regardless of starting position. Update: Davenport did okay in his heat race but he'll start in the middle of the pack which is fine. Doesn't change the DFS outlook for him. His truck came close to overheating with so much mud on the grill, so that's something to keep in mind for the actual race. All in all? Still a good DFS play.

Tyler Carpenter ($7,400)

Carpenter might be a little overpriced, but he has a dirt racing background having won the Gateway Dirt Nationals in 2021. But his style of racing was criticized by others when he won that event. But he’s gone on record and acknowledged that he doesn’t have the funding to race in a lot of series full-time and if he gets his chance anytime, he’ll do what it takes to win. And I like that from a driver who is willing to do what it takes to win. He’ll be running good equipment with Niece Motorsports. Do I expect him to win? No, but I believe he can grab a top ten if his aggression is on the same level as his equipment. Update: Not quite sure what happened to Carpenter because he was running well and was top five in his heat race heading into the final lap. But Fox didn't show why he only finished ninth. He's an okay PD target if he's not DQ'd, but not a play you need to jam in.

Tanner Gray ($7,100)

Tanner Gray overheated during his heat race (kind of ironic) and didn't finish. The move was just to save the equipment for the actual race. It's not hard for these trucks to overheat if too much mud/dirt gets on the grill and reduces air flow. So Gray's team opted to save the ride for the race and bring it down pit road for the race. The PD alone puts Gray in play regardless of the experience he may or may not have on dirt tracks. Taylor Gray looked pretty impressive as well and is worth a look in Tournaments in this price range.

Hailie Deegan ($6,600)

Deegan looked very strong in Heat 1. She scored the most points with 13, which actually was more than Ben Rhodes who put up 12. She looked very comfortable in the truck despite the front end being loose and catching the surface at times. She's got some momentum following her career-best finish last week and she has a dirt racing background so she's certainly in play for Tournaments this weekend, but the starting positions means she's difficult to play in Cash games.

Colby Howard ($6,200)

Colby Howard should probably be $1,000 more this week. But we won’t complain and we’ll gladly take the discount. He ran both Bristol Dirt and Knoxville last year in the Truck Series finishing 12th in the former and 16th in the latter. Hence why you can understand why I think he should be more expensive considering he clearly has top 15 upside. But Howard also comes from a background of dirt racing since he was brought up on racing Bandoleros and late models. Update: Howard's truck essentially died on the opening lap of Heat 2 and he shredded his right rear tire. Not sure if he blew the engine or if it was a transmission issue, but he had to be pushed to pit row. Howard is perfectly fine in the points and should still get into the race, and now he'll offer plenty of PD as well so he's a good value option as long as the race goes better than Heat 2.

Dean Thompson ($6,100)

Thompson hasn’t had a great season, but he was having a very good run last week at Texas but he was caught in a fairly horrific crash and he finished 28th. He has been cleared for the race this week so more credit to him. He’s much cheaper than his TRICON teammates and proved last week, before his wreck, that he can possibly run with the big boys. Thompson finished 23rd at Knoxville last year and 16th in the Bristol Dirt race. I would limit exposure to just Tournaments/GPP’s. Update: Thompson didn't have the great race in his heat race but he finished 7th and should offer some PD. Gonna have to takes some risks in this price range and I didn't completely hate how he looked.

Timmy Hill ($5,800)

It always feels redundant adding Hill as a value play, but would anyone really be surprised if he put up 25 fantasy points? In last year’s race he started P29 and finished 23rd and then at Knoxville he started P28 and finished 19th. It’s not that he’s a tremendous dirt racer, but overall Hill just tends to mostly run clean. There isn’t a tremendously high ceiling, but no matter the track he somehow happens to move up if he doesn’t wreck. Assuming he starts outside the top 30, he’s going to be a popular PD play. To be honest, I did consider writing up Kris Wright because he’s had some good finishes and DFS performances this year. But historically he hasn’t done well in a small sample size on dirt tracks so exposure to Wright is dependent on starting position.

Andrew Gordon ($4,800)

Andrew Gordon is probably about as low as I’ll go into the driver pool. I don’t have a ton to write up on this particular driver, but he’s been brought on in recent years to race dirt races for the Truck Series. He finished outside the top 30 in the two previous Bristol Dirt races, but did finish 24th at Knoxville in 2021. Please make note that he’s in the G2G Truck and this ride is pretty terrible, but we expect this to be a high variance race. He’s $4,800 for a reason, but he’s the cheapest driver I’m looking at early on. To differentiate your driver pool, Jessica Friesen is worth a look if she qualifies for this race. I believe she’s tried qualifying for this race two years in a row but has failed to do so both times. But she has run Knoxville the last couple years and she does have a dirt racing background. Update: Jessica Friesen likely won't make the race due to a poor performance in her Heat race. Kaden Honeycutt at $4,600 is a good pivot in this range but he's starting P3 and really needs a top ten to be of value.

NASCAR DFS Core Plays

The Core Plays for Saturday’s dirt race will be published in the NASCAR DFS Discord Channel around one hour before the race.

 

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