The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season is in full swing and Tyler Reddick went to victory lane for the third straight race to kick off the season. We saw Christopher Bell win three straight races early in the 2025 season. But Reddick is now the only driver in NASCAR history to win each of the first three races to start the year. And that’s a huge accomplishment when you consider the variance and type of racing we see from Daytona, Atlanta, and COTA.

But this week we’re heading to the desert and getting some short track action from Phoenix Raceway. Phoenix has been on the schedule twice the last few years with an annual spring trip and it was the previous host of the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race. That is no longer the case but we will still see Phoenix appear in the playoff portion of the schedule in October.

We have all your coverage this weekend with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. And after a year away, we’re bringing back the NASCAR DFS Show to offer up some analysis on every race in under 30 minutes each week. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Straight Talk Wireless 500!

 

 

 

Phoenix Raceway

Phoenix Raceway is a short, 1-mile track with some banking (about 9-11 degrees) so it mostly qualifies as a short, flat track. It has a unique dogleg feature as well so it’s not a perfect oval. Diving down on the apron of the dogleg is a popular move to gain track position and we could very well see the field go 8-wide through that portion of the track.

The name of the game here will be track position. This is a short track so it’s easy for drivers in worse equipment to lose the lead lap on a long green flag run. Moreover, this track has a bit of an older surface so drivers need to manage their tires as well. And we always need to acknowledge that this NextGen car has struggled at times on the shorter tracks. But NASCAR did increase the horsepower for this package in the offseason so hopefully we see more passing for Sunday’s action.

Based on the trends table above, we should expect most of the win equity come from drivers starting in the first six or seven rows. While passing has been difficult on the shorter tracks, we can find comfort seeing that Phoenix has averaged 11.6 drivers per race that can gain 6+ spots of position differential over the last five races. And on top of that, 62% of the drivers to finish in the top 10 have actually started outside the top 12.

For Sunday’s race we’re going to see the field run on the exact same tires as the Championship race this past November. That’s significant because there were a decent amount of issues with the tires going down as teams tried to decrease the tire pressure as much as possible to lower the cars for better aero. It’s a fine line teams have to walk but it adds a little randomness to Sunday’s race.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

Position differential (PD) has been the name of the game for the first three races to start the 2026 campaign. That will not be the case for Sunday’s race. Yes, we will need some drivers to move up and score well because we simply can’t squeeze six dominators into our lineups. But you’ll notice that drivers starting deeper in the field haven’t scored as well as drivers starting closer to the front.

A big reason for that is the back of the field is in danger of losing the lead lap if they’re in poor equipment and there aren’t many cautions. With over 300 laps on the table for this race we have about 200 dominator points available. So building lineups with two-to-three dominators is important. But also, don’t shy away from taking a stand with a unique solo dominator build in the event we see one driver win with over 200 laps led. It’s unlikely but still possible.

Based on the table above, the front row will be popular. A driver starting on the front row has made the optimal lineup in all eight NextGen races at Phoenix Raceway and based on the averages in the tables above you can understand why. Clean air is king and the front row has easy access to getting out front and collecting laps led and fastest laps. I’ll be making 20 lineups for Sunday’s race and I imagine I’ll play at least one driver from the front row in about 70% of my lineups.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Straight Talk Wireless 500

 

NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 500 Top Tier DFS Picks

Ryan Blaney (Starting P5) – DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

Blaney rolls off P5 for a track he has great history at. Since the start of the 2023 season, Blaney has the second-best average finish at Phoenix (6.7) and that includes a win and five top five finishes. Despite going out in the second group during practice he still had the seventh-fastest lap and he was sixth in 10-lap averages.

All three Penske cars qualified inside the top five for Sunday’s race. Even Austin Cindric flashed some good speed in P&Q so we should be feeling pretty good about those Fords. Blaney has dominated the comparable tracks in recent years with a win at Iowa in 2024 (201 laps led), and he’s won twice at Martinsville in the NextGen era and in both performances he collected 145+ laps led. He’s one of the favorites to win this race and for good reason.

Denny Hamlin (Starting P11) – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

I’m not in love with this play as much as I want to be, but Hamlin has a chance to exorcise some demons this weekend. We all remember the loss at Phoenix last fall that will haunt him for a long time. He easily had the best car all day and he was cruising to a win with over 200 laps led. But William Byron cut a tire with less than 10 laps to go and the field had to be reset. Hamlin lost track position for taking four tires on the last pit stop while Kyle Larson only took two. From there, Hamlin couldn’t make up the track position and Larson laid claim to his second Cup Series Championship.

Here’s the good news for Hamlin: we’re running the exact same tire combination for Sunday’s race. While others struggled in last fall’s race with tire management, Hamlin managed his well over the course of the race. He will draw ownership as a secondary dominator, but he has the kind of car that can get better as the race progresses on Sunday.

William Byron (Starting P9) – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $13,500

Based on the notes I made above regarding the starting spot charts, it may surprise people that I’m not going with Larson in this section. But I have to remain committed to Byron here as I was during this week’s NASCAR DFS Show. Larson has the better track position to start after he qualified P2. So yes, I’ll be getting exposure to him along with shares of Logano because a front row driver tends to hit the optimal lineup at Phoenix.

But Byron is always a threat to lead laps at Phoenix even if Larson has the easier path to the early lead on Sunday. In four of the last six races at Phoenix, Byron has led 50+ laps. Last fall we saw him dominate at Martinsville with over 300 laps led. And at Iowa last summer, he led over 140 on his way to a win. My one concern is how the new Chevy body runs in this package but I’m not going to let that be a strong influence toward fading Byron. He starts with good track position and as long as he doesn’t blow a tire like he did last fall, I think we once again see him get up front and lead laps.

Joey Logano (Starting P1) – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,000

Logano is going to be wildly popular and he 100% should be. It’s not just the fact that he starts on the pole and can easily collect dominator points and then be optimal with a top 10 finish. But you just get so much roster flexibility because he’s $1,500+ cheaper than the three drivers we’re already previewed.

Logano probably doesn’t win this race and that’s fine. We don’t need him to. But he has such an easy path to clean air and he can certainly lead the first 30+ laps with ease. He started on the pole in the 2022 Championship race at Phoenix and he went on to lead 187 laps in a winning effort. In the 2024 Championship race, he started on the front row and led 107 laps on his way to a win. In this very race a year ago, he started P2 and led 81 laps but finished 13th. But we know what the upside is when this guy is given a front row starting spot at Phoenix and he can smash at this price tag.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott (Starting P26) – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

It was not the greatest qualifying effort from Elliott on Saturday. Starting this deep isn’t ideal but he’s not in any immediate threat to get lapped from P26. He’s still in far better equipment than most of the drivers starting in rows 7-13. While it’s difficult to pass here, I do think he can get around those drivers and it’s a long race. I’m sure the team will make some bold calls to gain track position.

This isn’t one of his better tracks but he did win here prior to the NextGen era and on top of that, he really doesn’t need to be elite to deliver a great score. As long as he keeps the car clean, and the team strategizes properly he can still pull off a top 10 finish. If he does that and logs a few fastest laps along the way, he’s going to return 50+ fantasy points on DraftKings. That’s awfully hard to pass up despite the mediocre showing in practice.

Brad Keselowski (Starting P37) – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $7,200

Brad Keselowski is not a tough sell by any means. He starts dead last because he failed to post a qualifying lap. He cut a tire in practice and had contact with the wall so they were unable to make a qualifying lap. As if dealing with a broken femur isn’t hard enough, he’ll have to start at the rear.

While we need a top 10 out of Elliott for him to pay off his price tag, the same can’t be said for Kez. Realistically, a top 20 finish is going to return at least 40 fantasy points on DraftKings and over the last six Phoenix races he has a 14.5 average finish, including a runner-up finish in this race back in November. Ownership will be heavy but you likely want to lock him in your cash game lineup(s) and determine your own exposure in tournaments. We don’t want to go all in on this play, but 40-45% exposure still gives you plenty of lineups that can score big in case Keselowski is a bust.

Josh Berry (Starting P10) – DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $9,000

Most will flock to Kyle Busch and I understand why. He starts P29 and offers a lot of position differential at a reasonable price. He’s going to make the driver pool below.

But I mentioned Josh Berry in the latest NASCAR DFS Show and think he’s a great GPP play. The Penske cars appear to have speed and while Berry isn’t in a direct Penske car, he’s in the 21-car for Wood Brothers Racing and they have an affiliation with Penske. Sure enough, Berry qualified P10 so there’s speed in this hot rod.

A year ago in this race, Berry started and finished 4th. Then later in the fall he started and finished 7th. So if you’re worried about the starting spot, then you should take some comfort in the fact that he can hold his track position and if he comes in with less than 15% ownership then our tournament lineups are cooking with gas. But be mindful we may want to cap our Berry exposure to 20% and even that seems a bit high.

From a lineup theory perspective we do need some of the chalk to bust but given what we saw from these tires last fall, I’d say there’s a good chance we see some chalk bombs on Sunday and Berry has shown he can finish well at this track.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Connor Zilisch (Starting P19) – DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,000

We’re now a week removed from the first road course of the season. Zilisch had a frustrating day but the 14th-place finish at COTA is not indicative of his performance. The car was fast and he arguably drove through the field three times after getting spun twice going into Turn 1.

So now we have Zilisch starting in the middle of the pack at a short, flat oval. The narrative a year ago in the 2025 Xfinity Series season was that Zilisch would contend on road courses and we’d see how he progressed on the ovals. He’d eventually go on to win at tracks like Pocono, Dover, Indianapolis, and Gateway while finishing as the runner-up at Charlotte, Nashville, Kansas, and Las Vegas. I expected him to find his footing and gradually get better on the ovals.

For this race he offers PD, isn’t at risk of getting lapped early on, and he’s still an incredibly talented young driver. And if you look at the table above, he was pretty quick in practice. After he was chalk a week ago on a road course, I’m anticipating the ownership numbers regress and we have a chance to jump on this kid and see if he can register a top 10 finish for our NASCAR DFS lineups.

Bubba Wallace (Starting P28) – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

Wallace starts P28 after a disappointing qualifying run but so be it. We’ll take a very affordable driver in good equipment. The two Phoenix races in 2025 are low points for Bubba. A year ago he wrecked in stage three of this race and then in the Championship race in November he had an issue with his brakes a little over halfway through.

But in four races here from 2023-2024 he had an average finish of 11.75 and in the November 2024 race he started P29 and finished 7th. Most of the attention is likely on teammate, Tyler Reddick, as he chases his fourth straight win to start the year. But from a DFS perspective, it’ll be hard to completely lay off Bubba for Sunday’s race.

Michael McDowell (Starting P16) – DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,200

I’ll be quick on Michael McDowell because he’s finished inside the top 10 in three of the last five races at Phoenix. And if we extend that sample size to the last six Phoenix races, then we’re looking at four results of 13th or better.

I do want to caution you that it’s not entirely based on speed. He’s mostly gaining track position through good strategy calls. But at the end of the day, if you don’t have speed then you better be willing to make bold moves to put yourself in position to finish well and McDowell’s team can certainly do that. And those Spire Motorsports cars looked pretty sporty in the first practice group on Saturday. At this price tag, if McDowell can steal another top 10 finish then he’s returning at least 40 fantasy points on DraftKings at just $6,100.

Todd Gilliland (Starting P30) – DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $3,500

We probably don’t need to go this low on FanDuel, but Gilly might be my favorite punt on DraftKings. He starts P30 so there’s position differential but that also puts him at risk of losing the lead lap, right? That is a logical train of thought but it’s a long race and you can move up through the field even if you’re multiple laps down.

I mention this because Gilliland’s results at Phoenix aren’t great. In eight career races in the desert, his best finish is 17th (each of the last two spring races). But the interesting thing about Gilly is that he’s gained at least eight spots of positive PD in each of his last four races here. He also grabbed a pair of top 10 finishes in both Martinsville races a year ago so he’s pretty good at these short, flat tracks. He will draw some ownership as a cheap value play but he can move up and deliver 33+ fantasy points if he finishes in the top 20.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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