NASCAR DFS Picks: Duramax Grand Prix Playbook, 3/1 – Circuit of the Americas

We might be done with the chaos of plate racing, but we’re only subbing it for the chaos of Circuit of the Americas, or COTA. Perhaps the change from plate to road racing will temporarily take the shine off of Tyler Reddick following his historic back-to-back wins. It’s time to head to Austin, Texas for the Duramax Grand Prix.

Much like what Brad Keselowski might be looking at, we’ve got a sub in this week. I, Matt Selz, am back — for one week only — filling in for Dan who’s moving this weekend. I will try and keep the early season roll going as I break down the field for DraftKings and FanDuel for COTA.

Last year we saw some different racing following the change to the shorter COTA circuit rather than the longer, slightly less technical one. They’ll be back on the shorter circuit again this year for the sixth visit to this gem of a road layout.

We have all your coverage this weekend with the NASCAR DFS Playbook for DraftKings and FanDuel in addition to the NASCAR DFS Projections and the NASCAR DFS Ownership outlook. And after a year away, we’re bringing back the NASCAR DFS Show to offer up some analysis on every race in under 30 minutes each week. Let’s dive in and take a look at the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Duramax Grand Prix!

Circuit of the Americas

In some respects, our first road race of the year holds true to assumptions but also differs some too.

First, how does it hold up to assumptions? There are only a couple of drivers each race who top the 20 laps led mark. In addition to that, we’ve seen an average of 32 drivers finish on the lead lap, which makes sense as it’s incredibly tough to lap fellow drivers and most accidents are single-car spins. Lastly, most of the laps led in each race come from drivers starting in the top-10.

How does it differ than preconceived notions? The place differential stats and the winner spots are not what we expect. Nearly nine drivers a race move up at least 10 spots. A remarkable number for tracks where passing are notoriously challenging. In addition to that we see that nearly 2/3 of the top-10 finishers start outside the top-12 in the grid and as many drivers have won starting P16 or worse as have from the front row.

We expect to see more of the moving through the field this year with the changes to the package on the cars. With more horsepower, 750 HP, and more tire wear than we’ve seen before it should put long runs in the hands of the drivers.

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

Just like the racing at COTA and the roller coaster on the property, the scoring trends follow a similar up and down pattern.

Four to five drivers starting in the top-10 rank in the top-10 of scoring with another three starting P11-P20 ranking in the top-10 of scoring too. In general though, these scoring charts fit the race trends shown above given they are still a bit front loaded with some key spots throughout the rest of the field.

These trends do include the first two races which were incredibly chaotic with big crashes and wet weather. Now we have the shorter track and more horsepower so don’t take these trends as a be-all-end-all.

Duramax Grand Prix Practice and Qualifying Results

The following table shows the qualifying spots for each driver as well as their single-lap and 5-lap averages from Saturday’s practice sessions. It is designed to give a rough outline of who may move up or who may be a contrarian play.

NASCAR Duramax Grand Prix Top Tier DFS Picks

Shane Van Gisbergen (Starting: P13) — DraftKings: $13,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

It’s SVG and a road course. There’s very little reason not to play him. He won 5-of-6 road/street course races last year with this being the lone exception. The 97-car was one of the best cars in practice as well. Qualifying simply didn’t go his way.

The only real reason not to play him is to be contrarian and hope the race doesn’t get all the way according to plan for him. Starting P13 with a top-3 car indicates there’s a lot of PD points waiting but, if, and it’s a big if, van Gisbergen doesn’t actually capitalize on all that speed and only gains a few spots… that’s the risk at this price tag.

Other than that if he does what’s expected, it’s hard to win without those points in the build.

Connor Zilisch (Starting: P25) — DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

The 19-year-old so-called road racing ace has been talking a big game this week. Zilisch has been quoted as saying he expects to go speed-for-speed with SVG. That’s a big task. Is he confident or cocky?

Well, practice and qualifying told different sides of that question. He ran P4 and P3 in single-lap and 5-lap metrics in practice before qualifying P25 after blowing the laps. Looking at his practice speed is likely the better sense of what he’s capable of given his O’Reilly Series history. Zilisch has run eight road races in that series and has six wins with no finish worse than P5.

If you’re looking for a top-flight pivot from SVG with a bit more PD upside, Zilisch fits that mold and will be popular thanks to the P25 starting spot.

William Byron (Starting: P10) — DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

Byron is just a consistent driver on road courses. There’s no better descriptor for him than that. At COTA specifically he’s averaged a 6.2 finish here in the last five races including a win while averaging the most laps led in the field.

At 16 road courses in general since 2023, Byron has seven top-5s (tied for second most), 10 top-10s (tied for third most), and has averaged the most laps led outside of SVG.

Practice wasn’t great for him but we have to trust that they’ll make adjustments and his road course bona fides will come to the fore on Sunday afternoon. Slick Willy B might get overlooked in this group compared to others and that helps his case too.

Christopher Bell (Starting: P8) — DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

Bell won this race last year and is now starting in the top-10 this year. That sounds like a good combo and it is. What else makes it a good combo? The second run of practice when his speeds and feel in the car all improved quite a bit according to him in a post-qualifying interview.

Outside of the win here, Bell has the most top-5s, third-most top-10s, second-best average running position, and second-best driver rating in the last 16 road races. So we’re basically getting William Byron for about the same price and slight differences in starting spot and practice speeds.

Tyler Reddick (Starting: P1) — DraftKings: $9,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

Talk about a driver being on a roll. Reddick is coming off back-to-back wins at Daytona and Atlanta and now has a shot to do something that’s never happened in the history of the sport. No driver has ever won the first three races of the season, until maybe now?

He’s on the pole for Sunday’s race after a blistering qualifying time and typically speaking, P1 is a great spot to be here. It’s been on average the best scoring starting spot and has produced a winner two years ago in William Byron. The only question for Reddick is if he can use that qualifying speed to translate into race pace. The practice speed was missing a tad bit of pace but there’s time to make adjustments and tweaks.

If Reddick’s history at Circuit of the Americas of a win and 4.6 average finish as well as road course successes elsewhere hold true it could be a dominant day for Reddick on his way to an historic win.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Elliott (Starting: P5) — DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel $11,000

Elliott is a trickier case than he used to be. In the Gen 6 car he was dominant when right turns were involved. However, in the Gen 7 it’s been a tougher go. Elliott has had zero wins and just three top-3s in his last 15 road races.

On the good side though he’s had seven top-5s and nine top-10s in those same races. So he’s got the solid finishes down but not the laps led or dominating races yet. If Elliott and can hang onto a top-5 finish, there’s enough here to make him worth the play but it is a narrow path to viability.

AJ Allmendinger (Starting: P7) — DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $8,500

We all know Allmendinger’s road racing bona fides across all three NASCAR series. The starting spot matches the practice speeds we’ve seen from him at COTA as well. Keep in mind that he was in line to win two years ago before getting shoved out of the way in one of the final corners of the race. With Dinger being basically the average price on DraftKings and a tad under average on FanDuel, he’ll be a popular pick with good upside on both sides in the mid-tier.

Chris Buescher (Starting: P14) — DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $9,000

By a wide margin, Buescher has the best position differential in the field in the five races at Circuit of the Americas. That mark is 13.8 spots a race. Buescher’s 8.7 spots of PD in the last 16 road races is also the best mark in the field among active drivers with at least two races in that span.

The practice speeds weren’t ideal but the team clearly made adjustments during the session and before qualifying. All we need from Buescher is to move up inside the top-10 to give us the ~40 points we’re looking for. For a man of his talents that should be in play.

Ross Chastain (Starting: P2) — DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $9,500

Chastain barely missed landing on the pole for Sunday. He was tracking faster than Reddick before he overstepped one corner and lost all the momentum in the lap. We’ve seen drivers win from starting P2, namely Tyler Reddcik his grid-mate, and Chastain won in his own right a few years ago when starting P16.

At practice, Chastain had the more convincing speed of the drivers starting this far up the grid. If that holds, it could be another good day at COTA for Chastain. Also of note is the fact that his 5.6 average finish here, is a full nine spots better than his average finish overall in the last 16 road races. Something about his layout suits him better than most.

Alex Bowman (Starting: P16) — DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $9,200

Bowman has never finished outside the top-10 at Circuit of the Americas thus far. In fact, Bowman’s 5.2 average finish at COTA and +7 PD are both some of the best in the field, right there with Chastain.

The short run speed for Bowman at practice was in the top-10, however, like some other Chevys the longer-run speed was in search of improvement. If that improvement comes, it should be a good day for Bowman, snatching another top-10 while starting P16 and getting us PD as well.

Michael McDowell (Starting: P6) — DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $8,200

McDowell had the best car in practice across basically all metrics. He then went out, in session one of qualifying, and couldn’t quite match the pole time of Tyler Reddick. I mentioned the McDowell history in the preview show above and how far back his road racing career goes. In short though, he’s moved up an average of 6.2 spots a race at COTA and ranks inside the top-10 of all Cup drivers on road courses in the last three years combined.

Giving this consistent of a driver a car with the speed in the Spire 77-car this week could very well be a recipe for success and perhaps give McDowell and excellent chance at nabbing a win.

Ryan Blaney (Starting: P4) — DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $7,500

Blaney has been a very good road racer for a while now but perhaps hasn’t had a car as noticeably good as it appears to be this weekend. If there was a car better than McDowell’s at practice it was the 12-car of Blaney.

Blaney was in the playbook when I started writing it before practice and qualifying and then I briefly thought about taking him out thanks to the qualifying spot. However, the speed is too good to ignore. Why was there doubt though? Well, Blaney has five top-10s in the last 16 road races, but zero top-5s. So there is a risk that the starting spot doesn’t stick but we’ll take that shot and get a bit different while trusting his speed this weekend.

Austin Cindric (Starting: P28) — DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

Quite simply, Cindric’s starting spot doesn’t match the practice speed he showed. That coupled with what we all know about Cindric’s road racing history he makes sense to sprinkle into lineups.

His average finishes at COTA and road courses in general are just so-so on their face, however when starting P28, if Cindric matches those averages, it’ll be 10 or so spots of PD he’d be in line for.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Daniel Suarez (Starting: P23) — DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $6,800

Suarez has won a road race before, at Sonoma, but still a good win. He’s been a bit more shaky at Circuit of the Americas with a negative PD in the past five races. However, that came from starting inside the top-10 which he’s clearly not doing this time.

In fact, the metrics are flipped this time. Normally he’s only been so-so at practice and good in qualifying but that’s flipped. Suarez ran inside the top-10 all of practice before missing in qualifying. There is upside here given the speed in Spire cars and the price tag on both sites.

Todd Gilliland (Starting: P17) — DraftKings: $6,100 | FanDuel: $5,500

Gilliland has a 9.5 average PD in his time at COTA and nine top-20s in his last 16 overall road races. That’s helpful if he’s starting outside the top-20 but starting inside the top-20 makes him a bit more of a risk.

The practice speed was good in terms of single lap and 5-lap average and if those make it to the race, he could nab his sixth top-15 or perhaps a fifth top-10 in those 16 road races. Gilliland is fine for either style of build but he is a bit more capped in upside than some other value plays.

John H. Nemechek (Starting: P31) — DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $4,500

There’s not a ton here for Nemecheck other than he’s had a good history of moving up through the field at COTA and other road courses. To be fair to him that’s all we’re really looking for in this range of salaries. The single-lap speed was promising, at least compared to starting spot, but the longer run speeds are just eh. Either way we need some value guys in builds this week and Nemechek does hold some nice PD upside based on track history.

Zane Smith (Starting: P11) — DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $4,800

Admittedly Smith was in the playbook before qualifying P11 and even before he ran P11 and P15 in practice. The road racing history is good enough for a guy this far down the salary lists to make him intriguing…but that tricky starting spot. Smith can afford to drop back a few spaces and still be worth playing but if he sticks in P11 or P12 like practice speeds suggest he could, there is plenty of value here. The starting spot will scare people off but for GPPs or contrarian builds he’s worth a shot.

Jesse Love (Starting: P27) — DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $4,000

Love put his road racing chops on display at practice on Saturday. He ran P12 or better in all metrics before qualifying P27 for the race. Love does have experience at COTA previously, as he ran here twice for RCR in the O’Reilly Series and finished P6 both times. The speed was evident at practice and he won’t have to move up too far to bring us some nice scoring in return. Depending on build, we’ll need a few value tier drivers and Love is easily in play.

Riley Herbst (Starting: P32) — DraftKings: $4,900 | FanDuel: $2,000

I’ll grant you that Herbst’s practice speeds weren’t great and nor is the starting spot. However, last year he started P31 and finished P17 here at COTA. Herbst has posted an average finish just inside the top-25 in six total Cup Series road races which is also solid results for a guy who’s the second-cheapest option on both sites.

High-Risk Special Case Driver:

Brad Keselowski (Starting: P26) — DraftKings $6,300 } FanDuel: $5,200

I talked a bit about this on the preview show above. Keselowski historically isn’t good on road courses, however he’s unlikely to actually run anywhere close to the whole race. Assuming he gets out of the car, Joey Hand is in line to takeover driving responsibilities while still giving Keselowski the points. That’s where the value comes. Hand is a very good road racer who finished P4 at Chicago last year in the Cup race. The risk comes in if Keselowski doesn’t get out of the car and we’re stuck with him and his road racing history and one leg.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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