We have reached the penultimate race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season and we’re due for some short track racing in primetime from Richmond Raceway! To the surprise of only a small group of people, Shane van Gisbergen collected his fourth win of the season last week, and they’ve all come on road courses. It’s the most wins NASCAR has seen from a rookie and Trackhouse Racing has been criticized for exposing a flaw in NASCAR’s playoff system. “Don’t hate the player. Hate the game.” SVG sits 25th in the overall driver points standings despite being tied for the most wins in the series.

Regardless he’s clearly the class of the field on road courses, but we should expect him to likely get lapped Saturday night as NASCAR heads to a very challenging short track in Richmond, Virginia. It’s the second-to-last race of the regular season before next Saturday’s finale in Daytona. With 13 different drivers collecting a win this year, there are just three spots available in the point standings so let’s take a look at the latest NASCAR DFS drivers and strategies for the Cook Out 400!

 

 

 

Richmond Raceway

For those who may need a bit of a refresher, Richmond Raceway used to receive two races on the NASCAR schedule but that’s been cut back to just one as NASCAR’s been attempting to mix up its schedule over the last handful of years.

Richmond is one of those short, flat tracks that has often struggled with the NextGen car. It measures in at just 0.75 miles in a D-shaped oval. What may separate this short track from others is that it does feature a good amount of tire wear. This is a bit of a moderate-to-high tire wear track and it’s historically been very difficult to pass here.

And because it’s a short track we’re likely going to see drivers lose the lead lap and to nail the optimal lineup at Richmond, you likely need everyone finishing on the lead lap or at the very least, still finding value plays that can gain 10+ spots of PD despite losing the lead lap.

The trends table looks like your traditional table you’ll see most weeks. It’s a short track so we have plenty of dominator points available and we should see at least 10 drivers reach double-digit fastest laps in addition to 2-4 drivers leading 50+ laps. So targeting two or three dominators seems like the way to go when building tournament lineups.

The tricky part is making sure we do try to fine some win/dominator equity starting outside the top 10. Over half the top 10 finishers in the last five Richmond races have started outside the top 12. And 39.21% of the laps led have come from drivers starting outside the top 10. Across a race with 400 laps, there’s likely a strong secondary/tertiary dominator coming from outside the first five rows.

But we do need to emphasize the short track aspect and cars starting in the back losing the lead lap. And to that point, mistakes on pit road can be very costly for this race as it can be difficult to regain the lead lap. The first race in 2024 went to overtime but saw 22 drivers finish on the lead lap. The second race also went to overtime but saw 19 drivers finish on the lead lap. The first race in 2023 saw 24 drivers finish on the lead lap and the second race saw 19 drivers finish on the lead lap.

So maybe the narrative of losing the lead lap is a bit overplayed (even by me) but by the time the race comes to its closure, it’s likely that if you’re in the top 18-20 then you’re likely on the lead lap. But if you’re rostering drivers starting outside the top 30, you’ll be sweating out the first stage as you hope they don’t get lapped by the leader(s).

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

The starting spot charts this week doesn’t shed significant light. It’s not that we should discount the images above. But typically for superspeedways we’ll see that the back of the pack scores well because of the position differential. The same could be said for road courses. Maybe for short tracks the polesitter does well because they can lead significant laps early on.

The polesitter obviously scores well here at Richmond. In Richmond-2 last year, Denny Hamlin won the pole, finished second, and registered 45.85 dominator points on DraftKings. In the first race last year, Kyle Larson started on the pole and finished third with 57.15 dominator points. In Richmond-2 back in 2023, Tyler Reddick was on the pole and lost 15 spots of PD so he finished 16th but still put up 32.4 dominator points. So the last three polesitters have all managed to lead 80+ laps at Richmond.

Definitely mix in plenty of research with the trends table above, the starting spots charts and how scoring has played out, in addition to the practice-to-qualifying table below. Richmond is a very tricky track for DFS because you really do need the top three dominator plays and you somehow have to squeeze in three other drivers that don’t destroy your lineup(s).

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Cook Out 400

It’s hard to put a ton of weight into the practice results. Unfortunately it was another practice session where the field was split into two groups. Group A had the better track conditions and that group featured the likes of Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, John Hunter Nemechek, Todd Gilliland, Corey Heim, and Noah Gragson. Those drivers stick out like a sore thumb in the practice-to-qualifying table because of their practice speeds compared to where they qualified.

I’m not doubting the setups or saying they’ll show up slow. But we have to be somewhat analytical and not view the practice numbers as scripture. They practiced around 4:00-5:00pm ET on Friday. This race goes green after 7:00pm ET Saturday night and the track conditions/temperatures will only get cooler as the night progresses.

 

 

 

Cook Out 400 Top Tier DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

This is pretty easy. Richmond is one of Hamlin’s best tracks, especially in the NextGen era. In the last six races here since 2022, Hamlin has two wins and five finishes inside the top five at Richmond. And in that six-race span he’s led 10.7% of the laps at Richmond.

Here’s what we’re looking at in total with Hamlin at Richmond. He has 36 total races under his belt with five wins, six runner-up finishes, and 20 top five finishes. He’s finishing in the top five in over half his race here and there are also three other results where he finishes sixth. In nine races here he’s led over 100 laps. This is considered one of his home tracks and for good reason.

In general, we know that Joe Gibbs Racing thrives at these short, flat tracks. Toyota was even the sponsor for a handful of Cup Series races at Richmond in previous years. The track history alone puts him in the Playbook as a driver to lock in on because we know how elite he is at this specific track.

Christopher Bell – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $13,500

Bell and Hamlin are the top two drivers in terms of pricing on DraftKings and FanDuel. Hamlin is definitely the 1A play prior to practice and qualifying and Bell might be 1B.

Bell doesn’t have a win under his belt at Richmond but the results are still strong. In Richmond-2 last year he finished first and second in the first two stages but finished sixth with 122 laps led. He’s a fellow JGR driver so the short track prowess is definitely in play and we saw him dominate in winning fashion at Phoenix earlier this year when he started the year with three straight wins. And even though it’s an exhibition race, he also won at North Wilkesboro earlier this season.

Pricing becomes a bit tough if you’re trying to play Bell and Hamlin together. But if you nail the right low-owned value options that can hit the optimal build then you’re sitting pretty with two heavy favorites to dominate and win in your lineup.

Bell’s practice speeds look really bad but even the broadcast team acknowledged that may have been gamesmanship and not showing all his cards. I would be surprised if an organization like JGR failed to get the race trim setup correct.

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $13,000

It was yet another disappointing qualifying effort from Kyle Larson but alas we land on Kyle Larson chalk as he’ll roll off P30. Now if you need me to weigh in on who I prefer between him and the two drivers above, I’m probably leaning with the JGR guys. Larson offers PD which is great. But in this range, I prefer going with the drivers that have track position and a path to dominator points so they can return 70-80 fantasy points on DraftKings.

In the NextGen era, Larson has an average finish of 8.2 at Richmond and he won here in the spring of 2023. And then in the spring of 2024 he finished third with 144 laps led. So this qualifying effort is truly baffling.

Some believe Larson is in a bit of a rut. He had issues early on at Watkins Glen and he spent most of the race down about 15 laps. Prior to that he finished 28th at Iowa. He hasn’t won a race in over three months and he’s led 22 total laps since the start of June. I guess by Kyle Larson’s standards that’s a rut. But for this race we can plug him into our cash game lineups because of the position differential he offers.

Joey Logano – DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $11,500

I was genuinely excited about Logano coming into this weekend because, if you’ll recall, Team Penske has won three straight NASCAR Cup Series championships and those “hot streaks” they’ve gone on in the playoffs have typically started right around this time of the season.

And to top it all off, Logano has solid track history at Richmond. In four-of-six NextGen races at Richmond, Logano has finished 7th or better. He even led 222 laps in Richmond-2 during the 2022 season after starting P17.

He’s also won here twice prior to the NextGen era and he has plenty of top five finishes. But for Saturday’s race, there is no ownership discount. Logano is going to be wildly popular because of his starting spot. He cut a tire in Friday’s practice session and the car went straight into the wall taking on some damage. The team will repair it and they won’t go to a backup car. But they didn’t qualify so they’ll start deep in the field.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Kyle Busch – DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $7,800

Busch will draw some ownership for this race because of the starting spot. A lot of talk this weekend will be about teammate Austin Dillon’s “effort” to win last year’s Richmond-2 race. He’s still credited with the win, but he was penalized heavily for it.

But overall, this is a sneaky good track for Richard Childress Racing. After his practice session, in which Busch laid down the best lap, he didn’t complain at all about the car. It honestly felt like he was mostly satisfied with it, and then laid down a bad qualifying effort. But that’s been the case for Busch this season.

Busch has four straight top 20 finishes at Richmond with RCR and three of those results he cracked the top 15. He doesn’t have much dominator upside but the PD sure is nice.

In this price range, you can spread exposure around a little bit because Ross Chastain is priced similarly and starts P33. Chastain offers up five finishes of 19th or better in six NextGen era races so he provides a similar outlook to Busch for this race from a DFS perspective.

Josh Berry – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

Berry comes from a short track background so it makes sense to give him some love for this race. He also rolls off P17 for this race so there’s a nice combination of position differential, without much risk of being lapped early on.

Of all the tracks on the NASCAR schedule, Richmond is one of Berry’s best. He’s raced here three times and Saturday’s race will mark his fourth Cup Series race at Richmond but with his third different team. In Richmond-1 during 2023, he started P30 and finished second with Hendrick Motorsports but that was because of a big strategy call as he substituted for one race. Then last year with Stewart-Haas Racing he finished 11th and 14th respectively in both races.

But he’s still in a good car for this race and he has that Penske affiliation. We’ve already discussed how this is a good track for that team so Berry may not draw much ownership and he comes with top 10 upside. Do I wish he was a bit cheaper? Sure. But I don’t expect significant ownership to flock to Taylor Swift’s high school classmate.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $6,500

We kicked off this article highlighting the good fortunes of the last three polesitters and their ability to basically lead all of stage one. Preece certainly has experience here with nine career Cup Series races under his belt. However, he only has one top 15 result in his career.

I’m sort of operating under the assumption that we should treat him differently for this race. He may certainly have his hands full early on but if he can get the lead and rattle off a significant run with clean air, then he can afford to lose some spots with negative position differential and still be optimal if he finishes in the top 10.

Preece has plenty to race for this weekend. He’s still in the hunt for a playoff spot so they know the importance of points and a good finish.

Austin Dillon – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $6,800

Austin Dillon’s performance in last year’s second race at Richmond will get plenty of attention because he intentionally wrecked two other drives to win the race. Part of me doesn’t necessarily blame him for doing it. He went from being the underdog everyone was rooting for who surprisingly had the fastest car, to being villainized for intentionally wrecking two other drivers. And when they interviewed him after the race, he basically said “I did what I had to do.”

But he’s still credited with a win at Richmond. And for all the love and attention we’re giving to Joe Gibbs Racing, we have to give some to RCR as well. We’ve already mentioned Kyle Busch but Dillon’s worth discussing as well. Even outside last year’s win, he has favorable track history and great track position to start this race. Last year he started P6 and this year he rolls off P11 so we get a little more PD. If he maintains the track position and even moves up a few spots he should hit the optimal lineup at Richmond for a second straight year.

His ownership numbers will be worth a look over once they become available later in the day. If it’s looking like the field will buy into last year’s win a little too much, then we can consider laying off in hopes that he busts.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $7,200

Ty Gibbs is priced way down this week. And honestly, I’d be okay playing him regardless of where he starts. Iowa is a somewhat comparable track to Richmond when you consider the distance and shape, but Iowa has much more banking. But all in all, Gibbs was priced at $7,800 for that race and finished 21st but he had an average running position of 16th that day.

The car should definitely be a top 15 ride and we know how the Toyota camp and JGR have high expectations for this track. And again, this price is absurd for a driver who finished 16th or better in three of the last four Richmond races. He raced here twice in the Xfinity Series and grabbed a win with 181 total laps led across both races.

Now he is in the middle of a cold stretch with three straight finishes outside the top 20. And he’s disappointed time and time again with no wins in his Cup Series career to this point. But the equipment is too good to be pricing him this low. It’ll be good enough to stay on the lead lap and potentially grab a good finish. A wreck or an error on pit road are the only concerns because I would be stunned if the team whiffed on the setup for race trim.

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $5,000

Nemechek is finding his way into the Playbook a lot lately. It helps when you’re this cheap and have more top 10 finishes on the year than anybody immediately priced around you. And he has more top 10 results than drivers like Brad Keselowski, Josh Berry, Carson Hocevar, and Ty Gibbs.

JHN had some great runs here in the lower series. In a pair of races in the Truck Series he finished first and second in 2021 and 2022. In three races in the Xfinity Series from 2021-2023 he finished top three in every race including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2022 and 2023 where he led 146 laps combined.

The Cup Series is obviously a different beast. But I don’t want to ignore the fact that this year he’s finished top 15 at both Phoenix and Iowa so I do like him as an affordable driver that should provide some PD and (hopefully) maintain the lead lap.

Zane Smith – DraftKings: $5,900 | FanDuel: $4,000

This is more of a gut call because his practice speeds weren’t electric by any means despite going out in the earlier practice session. If you prefer to pivot to his teammates, Noah Gragson or Todd Gilliland, then you can go that route. Their practice times were better and Gilliland offers more of a safety net.

But it’s because of his teammates’ speed that I’m thinking Zane might have more in the setup than he let on. This hasn’t historically been his best track so that may knock his ownership down a bit. But he offers position differential and he has cracked the top 18 on plenty of occasions this season.

All of Front Row Motorsports went out during the first session when the track conditions were better. So Gragson and Gilliland’s metrics look better than they might be. But I don’t think the speed throughout FRM is a mega downgrade and I think Zane offers more than what we saw on Friday.

Ty Dillon – DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $2,000

Very risky play here with Ty Dillon. And you probably don’t need to dip this low into the driver pool on FanDuel. But he starts P16 so he likely isn’t getting lapped if he holds track position. And those who took chances on his brother in last year’s Richmond race were rewarded handsomely.

Ty went out in the first practice group and had the third-fastest long run speed behind Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. Even after practice he seemed very happy with his car so I am led to believe that Dillon’s team may have been fed some information from RCR. Plus, A.J. Allmendinger, Ty Dillon’s teammate, saw his car fail tech inspection twice. Is it possible that Kaulig is pushing some limits and boundaries with their setups this weekend?

Obviously we aren’t playing Ty Dillon in cash games but he’s dirt cheap and likely optimal if he can surprise us all with a top 12 finish.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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