NASCAR DFS Picks: Coke Zero Sugar 400 Playbook, 8/23 - Daytona International Speedway

The 2025 NASCAR regular season comes to a close this weekend at Daytona. This race has historically been a wild card for teams and drivers trying to reach the playoffs. It’s no different this season.

While the playoffs are nearly all but set — there’s just two open spaces left — we could still have a Harrison-Burton-esque showing in the Coke Zero 400 on Saturday night. We all know just what it means to race at Daytona and what comes with it for both the IRL drivers and what we’re hopping for for DFS. The 160 laps around the 2.5-miles of Daytona International Speedway on Saturday will be full of drama, wrecks, and possibly weather. Let’s get onto the trends and NASCAR DFS picks for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 shall we?

Weather Forecast For Daytona Beach

First things first, we’re starting with a weather forecast as it is summer in Florida. Just like most summertime days in the Sunshine State, there are chances of rain much of the week and weekend in Daytona. Temps in the upper-80s with chances of rain over 60% are forecast for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday in the area. That doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed rain, but what it does mean is that we have to be prepared for a rain-shortened race to happen. If it starts raining after Stage 2 and they don’t see a window to finish the race, they could just call it. Remember it will take quite a while to dry the 2.5-mile behemoth to get it ready to race.

Daytona International Speedway Race Trends

We’ve long referred to Daytona and the restrictor-plate racing that happens there as a crapshoot or a stack-the-back track. To a degree that’s true. You can certainly set lineups in cash games with drivers starting at or near the back and wait for the chaos to erupt and hope you miss it. However, to build smart, winning, lineups for the Coke Zero 400 we’ll want to look at some of these trends from the last 5 races at Daytona.

Some of the trends above from the last 5 races are to be expected at a place like Daytona. Some though are interesting. We’ll start with the obvious ones. There is a ton of position differential available with 11 drivers on average moving up at least 10 spots a race. Roughly 35% of the field on average moves up at least six spots. Like I said, there’s a ton of moving up. What else is obvious here? More than half of the drivers finishing in the top-10 come from outside the first six rows of the starting grid. Lastly, only about half the field finishes on the lead lap in each race and the average starting spot for the winners since 2023 is P17.

Now, if we want a differentiator stat for building lineups, we can hone in on nearly 61% of laps led coming from drivers starting inside the top-10. Laps led aren’t typically a focus at Daytona but when building GPP builds, it could be a fun way of separating your build(s).

DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends At Daytona

The scoring averages for DraftKings kind of fits what we expect to see at Daytona right? Scoring gets higher the further back the driver starts in the field typically. While that’s mostly the case, there are still chances for good scorers closer to the front of the field too.

Overall, there are 12 starting spots for DraftKings that average 10 or more points above average. Seven of those spots are for drivers starting P25 or better. So while in general, focusing on some drivers starting in the back, we’ll also want to mix in some mid-grid drivers too.

As far as FanDuel goes, it’s a more interesting case study. There are fewer spots that average 10 or more points over the average with just 7 of the 40 taken into account reaching that threshold. The highs and lows of the trends are more muted thanks to the laps completed points but the general thoughts are similar to DraftKings. Playing some drivers mid-grid and the rest from the back of the field is the way to build the lineups on FanDuel too.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Coke Zero Sugar 400

With everything being taken into account, how are we setting lineups for the Coke Zero Sugar 400? Just as with most plate races, it’s a bit of dart throw in setting lineups. The best way to mitigate the chaos, is to focus on the trends and scoring averages mixed with drivers who have performed admirably in similar races. Remember this is also a track where we can stack teams and manufacturers in our builds as they tend to work together on race strategy for better or worse. When we add into it drivers with stake in the race for the impending playoffs, it’s a pretty good mix for a driver pool. That’s what you’ll see in the selection below.

Full disclosure, this playbook was written prior to qualifying though that generally doesn’t carry a ton of weight at Daytona and similar tracks.

Coke 400 DFS Picks

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

Daytona is the type of track that sets Keselowski up perfectly to crack the playoffs. Historically he’s long been thought of, and rightfully so, as one of the best plate racers in the field. That’s remained the case over the last 2 years with 3 runners-up finishes and 4 top-10s in the last 8 such races including at Atlanta back in June. It’s been a rough season for the owner-racer at RFK but he’s been consistent in the second-half of the season with all 8 of his top-10s coming in the last 13 races. Keselowski will still need a win to notch a spot in the playoffs but he’s needed wins before and nabbed them. Watch for him to throw everything possible at the race on Saturday night.

Austin Cindric - DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

While Cindric is already locked into the playoffs, he’s looking for more points and to not be in the cutoff zone once the playoffs start next week. We’ve seen Cindric nab a win at Daytona before and in the last 8 similar races he’s posted the best average driver rating in the field. He does tend to start closer to the front than we’d like but, given his pedigree and car and best average running position, we’ll take that shot on Saturday night in the hopes that if he does start in the top-10 he can at least maintain it and lead a chunk of laps. There is risk here but at a deflated price and a shot for a win is enough reason to play him.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Kyle Busch - DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,500

It’s a must-win spot for Busch once more but the good news is, he’s been really good at these races. The 3rd best average driver rating in the field over the last 8 races and a win in that span. We’ve seen Busch perform in the past when he’s been up against it and there’s no time like the present to do that once more. It’s been a rough season for the 8-car team and he’s not had the best runs at Daytona nor Talladega nor Atlanta (twice) but that just means he’ll be less played for us this Saturday as he works his magic in an all out run for a win.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $7,200

It’s a plate track and that always means that Stenhouse and his aggressive driving is in play. Of the drivers in the field with multiple plate races run in the last 2 years, Stenhouse has the 2nd-best average finish at 11.9. That goes along with the best PD in the field in that span too. This year over the previous 4 plate races he’s started in the 30s each time and finished inside the top-15 thrice. He’ll be a popular pick at this price and with his pedigree but some times playing chalkier plays at Daytona is something we almost have to do. Oh yeah, and Stenhouse needs a win if he wants to make the playoffs which will only add to the upside he possesses considering he’s the highest scoring driver for DFS of any driver with at least 2 races run since 2024.

Chris Buescher - DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

Buescher is one of the most consistent plate racers in the field with 3 top-10s in his last 8 similar races. Two of those top-10s have come this year, though without a ton of PD accompanying them. The 17-car team is currently out of the playoffs and almost assuredly need a win to make it. We’ve seen him be in good positions at Daytona before and if he works with his teammate in Brad Keselowski, the 2 of them could make a good duo pushing toward the front late in the race. That being said, he’s probably the least likely to be played of the mid-tier drivers listed.

Tyler Reddick - DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $6,800

Reddick is about as locked in to the playoffs that a non-winning driver could be heading to Daytona. Above the cutline by 89 points, all Reddick really needs to do is make it through stage 1 and he should be safe. However, let’s not forget the boost and further security a win would give him heading into the first round not being in the immediate cutoff zone. Is this style of racing a fit for Reddick? You bet it is. In the last 8 similar races, he’s posted a win, 3 top-5s, 4 top-10s, and is just a tick behind Stenhouse Jr. in terms of average finish at 12.0. For our purposes, he also ranks 4th among drivers with multiple races run in the last 2 years in DFS scoring. Everything points to Reddick being a high-upside mid-tier play that might slide under the radar.

Alex Bowman - DraftKings: $7,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

We’ve arrived at the spot in the playbook where it’s time to talk about the best driver in the field this week. I know, you’re saying “…it’s Bowman?” Yep. Among drivers with multiple races run at plate tracks over the last 2 years, Bowman has the best average finish (10.8), the most top-5s (3), most top-10s (5), most top-20s (7), and second-most top-15s (5) only behind Stenhouse Jr. The Hendrick cars are always a threat at plate tracks and Bowman has made the most of that threat. Couple his stats with the car and the fact that he’s still looking for a win this year — though he’s virtually locked into the playoffs on points — it all makes Bowman a hard driver to ignore in builds on Saturday regardless of where he’s starting.

Michael McDowell - DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $6,500

McDowell is steady-as-he-goes at plate tracks this year and over the last few years. He doesn’t light up the stat sheet but consistency here can’t be understated. Back in February McDowell nabbed a P11 and backed it up with a P13 at Atlanta the following week. In fact, all 4 plate races this year have seen McDowell finish top-20 while posting at least 9 spots of PD in 3 of them. He’s a long shot to win, but we just need him to show up and be himself and bring it home with another top-15 and that should be enough for him to pay off this price.

Carson Hocevar - DraftKings:  $7,200 | FanDuel: $8,200

For all of the flack that Hocevar gets for his on-track style, it comes in quite handy at tracks like Daytona. In the last 8 similar races, Hocevar is one of just 4 drivers with 7 top-20s in that span along with Bowman, Reddick, and Stenhouse Jr., Hocevar is also one of just 5 drivers with 5 or more top-15s as well moving Byron and Elliott into that group with Stenhouse and Bowman. That’s some pretty high-quality to be grouped with. The only plate race this year Hocevar hasn’t moved up at least 20 spots of PD was the Daytona 500. If he can improve on that run from February he’ll be a big part of builds on Saturday night.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ty Gibbs - DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $5,800

It’s hard not to envision that JGR will be doing everything they can to get Gibbs a shot at the win to make him the 4th of the JGR drivers in the playoffs, not to mention his first career Cup win. It’s not just that though, Gibbs has been quite solid at plate tracks even without the big payoffs. Gibbs ranks top-11, among drivers with multiple races run, in the field in terms average finish (17.3), average driver position (17.1), and DFS scoring on both sites. Thanks to leading 32 laps in each of the last 2 plate races, he’s also 4th in average laps led too. Because the stats aren’t eye-popping, he may fly a bit under the radar when it comes to building lineups for Saturday night.

Erik Jones - DraftKings: $6,300 | FanDuel: $5,500

It’s a Matt Selz playbook and it’s a plate track, did we expect to not see Jones in the driver pool? This isn’t just a “let’s throw one in for old time sake pick”, there’s reasons here. Jones has run well in 3-of-the-4 plate races this year and he showed speed at Daytona in February as well.  Over the last 2 years of the drivers with at least 2 races on plate tracks, Jones ranks 6th in DraftKings scoring and 7th in FanDuel scoring and in that range of PD too. See I told you there were reasons to put him in the pool… oh yeah, he needs a win too to make the playoffs as a Burton-esque move.

Todd Gilliland - DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $5,200

I’ll make this one quite short and simple: Gilliland needs to match his finish position with his average running position. In all 4 plate races this year, Gilliland has finished worse than he started which isn’t a great pitch, however, over the last 2 years, he ranks 8th in average running position at 15.6. That ties him with Reddick and puts him just behind noted plate track racer Bubba Wallace in that stat. If Gilliland can stem the tide of the rough finishes, and match the running position, there’s some risky value here for the Toddfather.

Justin Haley - DraftKings: $5,700 | FanDuel: $4,800

Haley’s pedigree on plate tracks along with a strong showing in the prior 4 plate races this year make him an easy inclusion in some lineups this week. He needs a win to likely save his Cup Series career, let alone a spot on his own team. What a time to check a bunch of boxes in one night at a track he’s won at before in lower series and a discipline he’s won at 7 times in total. Getting another top-20 finish from him should be enough at this price but pay attention to the starting spot as there might not be as much PD as you’d expect from a value play.

Cody Ware - DraftKings: $4,900 | FanDuel: $4,200

Ware’s best career finish of P4 came in this race last year. He’s also coming off of a huge race at Atlanta back in June in terms of the last plate race. A top-25 finish is about all we need from Ware and that’s what he’s averaged over the last 8 plate races for finishes (22.0) with 3 top-20s. Aside from the good finishes, Ware has also posted the 7th-best DFS scoring average over the last 8 similar races which makes this price really pay off. Reports are that Ware has had this race circled on his calendar nearly all year and now it’s time to back up that reasoning for circling it.

B.J. McLeod - DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $4,000

McLeod has been a plate specialist for the last several years and it’s paid off for him more often than not. He’s average more than 13 spots of PD in his last 7 plate races and while it’s not exactly comparable, McLeod did post at least 16 spots of PD in 2 of his 3 plate races this year. He’s sure to be starting at or near the back of the pack and has a knack for missing the big ones, at this price, that’s all we need.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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