The NASCAR Cup Series is seeing its regular season slowly wind down as the playoffs loom around the start of NFL season. Denny Hamlin got the win last weekend at Dover and was rewarded with a two-year contract extension with Joe Gibbs Racing. Given the legal battle his 23XI Racing team is embroiled in, you can understand why he’s in no rush to race for his own organization.

Perhaps a bigger storyline coming out of Dover will be the Ty vs. Ty battle at Indy for $1 million. We’ve reached the final round of the NASCAR In-Season Tournament. Ty Gibbs, who has zero career wins with Joe Gibbs Racing, can at least win the inaugural tournament and secure himself a hefty bonus and use it as a confidence boost. He’ll go against the longshot, Ty Dillon with Kaulig Racing. The consensus appears to be that everyone is pulling for Dillon given the underdog story. He’ll have a tough test in front of him to finish ahead of Ty Gibbs, who will arguably have a top 10 car.

But we head to a crown jewel track this weekend. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is the host for this weekend’s Brickyard 400! We saw NASCAR return to Indy’s traditional oval after experimenting with the road course for a few years. By and large, the racing is much better for IndyCar at this venue but the stock cars tend to put on a decent show as well. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS picks and strategies for Sunday’s Brickyard 400!

 

 

 

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a MASSIVE complex. In total, this area covers about 560 acres and it also hosts the Brickyard Crossing Golf Course which has four holes inside the grounds of the track. The track itself is a 2.5-mile rectangular-oval. The track is 50-feet wide in the long straights and 60-feet wide in the turns. Speaking of the turns they feature about nine degrees of banking. One of the more dangerous aspects of Indy is the very narrow pit road. We’ve seen wrecks and pileups on pit road in the past. I believe the track has made an effort to create more space on pit road, but I still get a bit nervous during pit stops because it never feels like there’s enough room.

Now given that this is another larger track that’s not a superspeedway, we do need to acknowledge the lack of comparable tracks. Perhaps the best options available to us are Michigan and Pocono given the horsepower required to be competitive. But you can also look at the remaining 1.5-mile intermediates if you are looking to justify more of your own DFS plays.

Now this is a 400-mile race on a 2.5-mile track. We only have 160 laps to work with. On FanDuel that gives you just 16 dominator points (0.1 points per lap led). On DraftKings we’ll probably be working with about 100-105 dominator points when we account for cautions and stage breaks.

We’ve also only seen once NextGen race on Indy’s oval. That was last year and the dominator points were relatively spread out. Tyler Reddick led the most laps with 40 but had just six fastest laps for a total of 12.7 dominator points. In total there were five drivers that led 15+ laps and there were six drivers who started outside the top 15 that finished inside the top nine. So we do need a good blend of win equity and drivers that can provide PD.

We also need to nail the right strategy plays. With fewer races we should know who will be prioritizing wins to make the playoffs and who will go for stage points. The is a larger track so fuel and tire strategy also come into play this weekend.

 

 

 

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

This week’s trends table deserves a bit of an asterisk. Given that the weather hasn’t cooperated entirely I expanded the trends table and the below DK and FD scoring tables to include the last five Indianapolis races on the oval. So that does take us back to four races that were well before the NextGen era. So we have last year’s race from 2024 but also the races from 2017-2020.

This isn’t going to be a track where we see one dominator. With differing strategies it’s like the dominator points are spread out. Is it possible we see three or four drivers lead 20+ laps? Yes, but even 20 laps equate to just five additional fantasy points on DraftKings. Even registering 10 fastest laps comes out to just 4.5 additional points.

Should we be punting dominator points when building our lineups? Not necessarily. The best drivers and the fastest cars will get to the front at this track. So I’m looking at two or three drivers that carry win equity and from there I’ll look at position differential.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

We have some rather telling starting spot charts this week. The polesitter obviously has a significant advantage. That track position is huge because it can be difficult to pass here. The polesitter in the last five oval races at Indy has led at least 10 laps in each race and they’ve finished 2nd, 10th, 1st, 8th, and 34th. But it’s at least worth mentioning in the race Kyle Busch finished 34th he did collect 41.75 dominator points (fastest laps were 0.5 points back in 2017).

So this table does back up my lineup building strategy of chasing win equity with two or three drivers and hoping they score a good portion of the dominator points while finishing well. From there, I’m targeting PD starting in the back half of the field. The size of this track fortunately makes it difficult to get lapped naturally so really only a wreck can take a driver out of contention.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Brickyard 400

 

Brickyard 400 DFS Picks

Denny Hamlin – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Hamlin is going to be the most popular play of the slate. He wrecked his car in qualifying after pacing towards the pole earlier in the run, but alas he’ll start dead last. In a race with fewer dominator points available to us we can just play Hamlin in cash games (and tournaments) and eat the chalk with the rest of the field.

Hamlin wrecked in last year’s race but did manage to lead 21 laps. This year will be a bit of a challenge, but he provides a very safe floor since he starts dead last. We know the car at full strength can spank the field as we saw last week. We could lay out track history, comparable tracks, betting lines, etc. At the end of the day from a DFS perspective he’s an easy click for all formats but maybe cap exposure at 50-60% in tournaments and just match the field so you have some lineups remaining if he busts.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,700 | FanDuel: $11,500

Next to Hamlin, Ryan Blaney is another easy click on the slate, but not necessarily a lock. Blaney starts P24 after he finished third here in 2024. It goes without saying, this race and the track, mean a lot to Team Penske when you consider Roger Penske owns the whole complex.

Blaney also finished third a few weeks back at Pocono and shapes up to be a solid PD play although he doesn’t offer the same floor/ceiling that Hamlin offers. If Hamlin comes in dead last, he’s not losing you any points. But Blaney still has room for error. I still like the play for cash games but we don’t go to 100% exposure here in tournaments. The problem is there are clear cash cores this week and Blaney isn’t necessarily a “must play” in that format.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

I am personally hoping that the field flocks to Kyle Larson in this spot. He’s only $300 more but he offers more PD. I am leaning towards Byron more for tournaments (and potentially cash games for that matter) because I think he might be better in the long run.

But keep in mind, we’ve also seen Byron dominate the field at the intermediates this year. He may have just one win on the season but let’s not forget he led 243 laps at Darlington, 283 at Charlotte, and he led 98 at Michigan before running out of fuel with just a couple laps remaining.

There are five from the Toyota camp starting immediately in front of him, but I do think he has the upside to once again get us some dominator points on a high-speed intermediate and it’s possible he goes to victory lane as a +650 favorite.

Chase Elliott – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

We can be rather quick with this write-up because this is a similar play to Denny Hamlin. Elliott is also cheaper and offers more PD than Ryan Blaney, which is why I didn’t declare Blaney a “must play.”

Not much analysis is required other than he’s a pretty basic PD target. The practice-to-qualifying table obviously likes him but at the end of the day this is still a Hendrick Motorsports car starting deep in the field and he should be able to move up. 

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $10,500

Briscoe starts on the pole and that’s an easy path to early dominator points. That’s not a bad thing but dominator points are de-valued slightly for this race. Track position is key for this race and Briscoe gets it from the jump. We saw Sam Mayer lead every lap of stage one from the pole in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race.

We also saw Briscoe win at Pocono over a month ago and he’s coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes at Sonoma and Dover. Overall, it does feel as if Briscoe is hitting his stride with Joe Gibbs Racing and he’s emerging as the winner they thought he could be.

We also noted earlier in the article how the polesitter has led at least 10 laps in each of the last five Indy oval races. And again, that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things but track position is key and Briscoe has a path to the optimal lineup if he can collect dominator points and finish well.

Ty Gibbs – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

We were on board with Ty Gibbs last week and it paid off. Sure, he was underpriced and a bit of an obvious play. But we return to the well once again.

The Toyota camp had a great round of qualifying as they occupy the top five spots on the starting grid. Gibbs is also racing against Ty Dillon in the final round for the NASCAR In-Season Tournament. And Ty Dillon starts about 10 rows behind Gibbs.

It’s an easy path for Gibbs to win a million bucks but he even said on Friday that he’s not just racing Ty Dillon, but 38 other drivers. The kid is still hungry for that first win and he did pull out a top three finish at Michigan last month. The P5 starting spot isn’t ideal but I do think there’s a little win juice for the 54-car.

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $7,200

Chastain is probably the second piece in cash games given the price and starting spot. He rolls off P33 and in this race last year he started P28 and finished 15th. Overall, it’s not a great day but he added eight laps led which is due to Chastain at least taking some gambles for track position.

He already has a win this year and is seemingly locked into the playoffs. So I do think he’ll stay out for stage points and potentially gamble late in the race to gain track position. Chastain’s equipment is certainly good enough to finish well. He’s definitely a better cash game play than tournament option because we can probably look for some leverage here.

At the end of the day we know track position matters based on the scoring charts above. Chastain’s equipment is well above average so he should move up if he keeps the car clean.

Alex Bowman – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

Bowman is certainly good enough to contend for a top 10 and possibly a top five. He starts P21 and returns at least 45 fantasy points on DraftKings with a top 10 finish. He’s kind of like the Ryan Blaney of the mid-range. He’s obviously a good driver in a great ride. But in his price range there are just better PD options available.

Perhaps that lowers Bowman’s ownership numbers. But a top 10 is 45 fantasy points while a top five finish would be 55 points and that would likely make him optimal. So if playing Bowman in tournaments this is a play where you’ll need some drivers with more upside to bust.

Bowman finished 11th at Pocono with 15 laps led but wrecked out of Michigan earlier this season. But he also has top 10’s from Homestead, Vegas, and Kansas on his resume for the 2025 campaign.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $6,500

Preece is popping up on several radars in the NASCAR DFS community. If we look strictly at comparable tracks he’s performed very well this year. He finished 7th at Kansas, 9th at Charlotte, 9th at Michigan, and 8th at Pocono. And let’s not forget he was also top 10 at Vegas and Homestead.

Preece rolls off P23 for this race and we don’t really need any dominator points for this play. He could easily hit the optimal lineup with another top 10 finish on a high-speed intermediate. I wouldn’t play him in cash games. My own personal guess is that he comes in around 25% rostered in tournaments and I’d be fine going a little overweight with this play.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $5,200

Suarez is a play I’m not necessarily sold on and just feels overpriced. But we can at least hang our hats on the fact that he was top 15 at both Pocono and Michigan. But mind you, he technically lost five spots of PD at Pocono. But on the larger tracks he can at least contend.

For this race he starts outside the top 30 so there’s appeal with Suarez as a position differential play. If he gets inflated ownership then we probably lay off this option and look elsewhere. Remember we never want to go all in on a value play and that’s incredibly true with the next driver. But with regard to Suarez, the practice speeds indicate he could struggle to finish top 20 and that shouldn’t surprise us since he’s been so bad this year. 

John Hunter Nemechek – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $6,000

The smart DFS players are going to lay off JHN and pray that he busts. JHN was incredibly fast in practice but qualified very poorly. He jumps off the page as arguably the best play on the slate. He isn’t cost prohibitive and he has a great floor since he starts P36.

JHN was pretty good here last year when he led 16 laps but wrecked in stage three. Prior to that he did finish top five in stage two. As far as this year goes, JHN finished 6th at Pocono and even grabbed top 10 results at Kansas and Texas.

Be very mindful of your exposure to JHN because he’s such an easy play to lock in based on what we saw yesterday. Definitely play him in cash games but utilize some discipline when building your tournament lineups.

Justin Haley – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $3,000

There are some other value options to consider this week before I get to Haley. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is always in play for me on these larger, high-speed intermediates. He finished 11th at Indy last year after starting 9th so at least he held his position. But his practice speeds are a bit of a concern and I’m worried the ceiling might be a bit capped.

Ty Dillon is another honorable mention as he’s chasing a million bucks. All he needs to do is finish ahead of Ty Gibbs and he wins the In-Season Tournament. But Gibbs is in better equipment and starts closer to the front. So Dillon and his team know they need to make some aggressive strategy calls for track position. Based on pure speed, this isn’t the greatest play. But he has more to race for compared to the rest of the value plays.

Now we get to Justin Haley. Haley started P31 and finished 21st at Michigan and then started P22 and finished 19th at Pocono. If he can crack the top 20 and maybe finish 18th then he’s returning well over 6X value and if there’s chaos he could finish in the top 15.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

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