New Hampshire Motor Speedway is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule as we hit the halfway mark. The Magic Mile in Loudon, New Hampshire is one of the more interesting tracks on the schedule as a 1-mile flat track. What other tracks can we use as a base for comparing to New Hampshire? What are the trends we’re looking at for the recent races here? Are there weather concerns for the USA Today 301? Who are we predicting to win the race on Sunday and what are the best prop bets? All that as we preview the betting markets for the USA Today 301 at New Hampshire.

 

 

Weather Forecast for Loudon, New Hampshire

Rain. That’s the simplest way to put it. On Saturday it is likely to rain from mid-afternoon through overnight. Then on Sunday, scheduled race day, it is likely to rain off-and-on throughout the day with some being strong storms. Drivers will have rain tires at their disposal for damp conditions but they’re not really for running while it’s actively raining. So we could see delays, especially the race.

Trends and Betting Strategy for USA Today 301

Despite the track being a 1-mile in length, it races similar to a short track. They do in fact have the short track aero package on the cars. That means that over the last five races, we’ve seen things that mimic short track results. Passing here can be tough, especially in the top-10. Only 32% of the top-10 finishers in the last five races have started outside the top-12. That does include a couple of race winners. We’ve seen pit strategy and tire issues cause chances for jumping through the field and then holding that position on the track. The pit strategy comes in to play late in the races to grab a lead. That’s what’s led to half of the last 10 winners starting from outside the top-10 including as far back as P22. 

 

 

USA Today 301 Winner Predictions & Picks

Kyle Larson +700 (FanDuel)

Larson has the ability to win everywhere and was running up front at Iowa for a big chunk of last week. While he’s yet to win at New Hampshire in the Cup series, there’s no denying the setup has been good enough to win at places like Richmond and Gateway and Iowa this year.

Ryan Blaney +750 (DraftKings)

Blaney has been on a roll with a fast car at at the shorter, flatter tracks this year. After a good run at Richmond, he should’ve won at Gateway before running out of gas on the final lap and then dominated Iowa. If that same car comes to New Hampshire, it could be another day of Blaney running up front and getting the checkered flag.

Joey Logano +850 (DraftKings)

It’s been a while since Logano has won at New Hampshire but he’s been a car to threaten at nearly every shorter flatter race over the last year and change. That goes for this year’s similar tracks too. He may not have the pure speed to dominate a race but he has the skill and strategy to be in the right place at the right time and that’s all we really need for him to cross the start/finish line first at this point.

Chase Elliott +1400 (FanDuel)

If there is a set of tracks where Elliott has run better at recently it’s the shorter, flatter tracks like New Hampshire. That was the case again last week in Iowa and in Richmond with two top-fives in those races. Aside from running well, if qualifying is in fact rained out for the Cup series, Elliott would be starting up front which would give him the advantage right off the bat and a front row started won here last year.

Brad Keselowski +1600 (BetMGM)

It’s been four straight top-10 finishes this year at similar tracks. That includes a few top-fours. Being that consistent is the precursor to winning consistently. In the Next Gen car, Keselowski has finished P7 and P5 in the two races and won here as recently as 2020. There’s that consistency again.

 

 

USA Today 301 Picks: Long Shot Bets

Josh Berry +3500 (BetMGM)

Berry is known as a shorter, flatter track specialist. It didn’t necessarily go all his way last week at Iowa but he did have speed to run up front. If that same speed shows up again at New Hampshire, it could be another good run for the 4-car team, which has won here in the past with their previous driver and a good setup.

Chase Briscoe 100-1 (DraftKings)

There’s a couples of things buoying Briscoe this week. Firstly, he’s been known as a guy who is competitive at these types of tracks including a win at Phoenix. At New Hampshire in the Next Gen era Briscoe has moved up the best through the field of any one. If he can qualify better, he’ll have a better shot to challenge for a win late. The other thing buoying Briscoe? He was announced, however accidentally it was, as the MTJ replacement at JGR for next year. That’s got to give him some extra confidence too.

 

 

USA Today 301 Best Bets: Props

Kyle Larson Top-5 Finish +100 (FanDuel)

Before the wreck at Iowa he was the most dominant car. Prior to that and Gateway, Larson had a stretch of 7-of-9 top-five finishes. He’s capable of a top-five at basically any track so getting even money at a track where Young Money has won before and seemingly always runs well, is too hard to pass up for a prop.

Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish -106 (BetRivers)

The fact that it’s this close to even money is surprising. Sure it was a rough day in Iowa but prior to that, Hamlin had posted 5 top-fives in the prior 8 similar races. His consistency is hard to match thus making it a minor miracle we’re seeing these odds, plus the fact that he’s won at New Hampshire multiple times.

Brad Keselowski +135 vs Ryan Blaney (BetMGM)

On the off-chance that Blaney isn’t in similar form to what he’s been in similar races, we’re taking a high return on a matchup. Keselowski is a previous winner at New Hampshire and has been in the top-10 in four straight similar races this year. Blaney’s only accomplished that twice, though his P24 at Gateway should’ve been a top-five. The consistency here and elsewhere is on Keselowski’s side.

Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish +470 (FanDuel)

The newly minted US citizen, congratulations Mr. Suarez, is heading to a track he’s done well at previously. Suarez ran a P9 here two years ago and P12 last year and P13 or better thrice in the last five similar races.

Justin Haley Top-10 Finish +850 (FanDuel)

Haley has been finding his grove of late with a P9 and P13 in the last two similar races to New Hampshire. He’s not run spectacularly well here previously, though always finished better than he started. So this is more of a current form long shot prop than anything.