It’s time for the second road course race of the season for the NASCAR Cup Series. The Toyota/Save-Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway is on Sunday, June 9th just outside of Napa wine country. 

 

 

 

Sonoma has been a staple of the Cup Series schedule for a while now but this year it’ll be a bit different with it being repaved. That’s right, the entire track has been repaved this year; you may remember the tiff between Denny Hamlin and Marcus Smith a few months ago. What does that repave mean for betting the Toyota/Save Mart 350? 

What track history are we looking at for NASCAR best bets? What are the top NASCAR prop bets for this weekend’s race? And we can’t forget winner predictions for the 2024 Toyota/Save-Mart 350.

Toyota/Save-Mart 350 Betting Strategy For 2024

Sonoma is known to be a tough track on the schedule. It’s perhaps the most technical road course they race on each year which automatically makes it tough for most Cup Series regulars. Now we add in the addition of stage breaks back to the race and a repave and it’s tougher. 

What makes the repave tougher? Tire wear that is typically a factor here and can shake up the field later in runs depending on how drivers protect their tires, isn’t a factor now. Repaves take a few years to wear in and passing becomes tougher in that span. When we also take into account the low passing environments we’ve seen in the Gen 7 car plus stage breaks, we have an interesting setup for Sunday.

Last year at Sonoma, we saw 7-of-10 top-10 finishers start inside the top-12 – expect more of the same this year. The first race here in the Next Gen car had tire issues and a lot of teams still figuring out the car, so the results were a bit wilder than we typically see. In general, we want to look at drivers who have been great or consistent across the road courses in the Next Gen era.

None of the road courses are really comparable but the racing discipline needed at all of them is. When right turns are involved, the drivers who have shown well, regardless of track, hold weight. That being said, drivers who have struggled at Sonoma regardless of success at other road courses are ones we’re less interested in.

 

 

 

NASCAR Toyota/Save-Mart 350 Winner Predictions & Picks

Martin Truex Jr. +600 (FanDuel)

It’s a road course. It’s Sonoma. And it’s Truex. It’s basically that simple. Truex is arguably the best road racer in the Cup series, though he has been a tad hit-and-miss in the Next Gen car. 

That being said, his last road win was at Sonoma, last year in a similar environment in terms of passing as we expect this year. One other note, with his next Sonoma win, Truex will tie Jeff Gordon’s record of 5 wins at Sonoma.

Christopher Bell +825 (BetMGM)

Bell is one of the hottest drivers in terms of speed in the Cup Series. That’s been the case across multiple track styles. Harken back to COTA where Bell was one lap from winning the race and finished P2 instead. 

The Toyotas, at race they’re sponsoring, should be fast given the way they’ve run at road courses over the last two years. Bell might be the more under-the-radar Toyota driver and the only JGR driver with longer odds is Hamlin.

Chris Buescher +1400 (DraftKings)

Buescher has the best average finish of any driver in the Next Gen era. That’s not just at Sonoma, though he’s tops here too. No matter the track, he’s been impressive and it’s not just from starting up front either. His 7.6 average PD over those 11 races are best in the field as well. 

So even when it’s tough to pass, Buescher has found a way with or without stage breaks. Getting a guy with the best average finish, most top-10s, and who’s finished P2 and P4 in the prior two Sonoma races at these odds is nice for sure.

 

 

 

Michael McDowell +1600 (FanDuel)

We all know the backstory of McDowell being a road course instructor prior to being in NASCAR. That always makes him a threat at a track like Sonoma. He dominated at Indy Road last year on a track that was tough to pass on and had relatively new pavement, similar to Sonoma. He’ll need a good starting spot to be a threat but if he qualifies well, he’s just as much a threat as anyone above him in this piece.

Will Brown +3100 (FanDuel)

Last year the SuperCars championship leader came to NASCAR and won on a new road course. This year Brown is that leader coming to a relatively new track, given the repave. He’ll be in a third car for RCR. 

Even though we don’t necessarily like his teammates this week, it doesn’t mean that on a level playing field we don’t like a guy with the accomplishments of Brown. SVG specifically said that the Cup series cars aren’t that different from the style used in SuperCars which certainly helps Brown’s case.

Alex Bowman +5000 (Caesars)

Bowman has been an under-the-radar road racer for a little while now. His four top-five finishes in the 10 Gen 7 road races Bowman has run is tied for the second-most in the field in that span. He’s coming off a P4 at COTA earlier this year and he’s desperately looking for a win to solidify his playoff standing and join the rest of this Hendrick teammates with a road course win to his credit.

Cam Waters +8000 (BetMGM)

Why not take a shot on this year’s SVG? He’s a skilled and accomplished SuperCar driver who’s going to be in a very solid RFK third car. That seemed to work well for SVG last year at Chicago, though for a different team. 

Waters’ teammate, Chris Buescher, can show him the ropes perhaps better than anyone else given the successes he’s had in the Next Gen era thus far. If Waters qualifies well on Saturday, these odds will get shorter.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Toyota/Save-Mart 350 From Sonoma Raceway

Christopher Bell Top-5 Finish +150 (BetRivers)

Two of the last three road races have seen Bell finish in the top-five. He’s gotten a win at this discipline in the Cup Series previously as well. Bell has been roughly the same driver as Elliott over the Next Gen era at road courses and he’s had better finishes recently. So, getting these implied odds on Bell with a top-five is nice for one of the hottest drivers in the Cup series at the moment.

Chase Elliott Top-5 Finish +150 (Caesars)

Sure, it’s been a little bit since we’ve seen Elliott finish in the top-five on a road course. However, in the Next Gen era, he’s still managed to do it half the time, that includes here last year. His road course skills haven’t gone away; it was just bad luck and no rhythm last year. Getting one of the best road racers in the series at a nice plus money return makes sense to bet it.

Will Brown Top-10 Finish +125 (FanDuel)

Have to like hedges, right? The SuperCars championship leader, as of now, follows in the path of Shane Van Gisbergen last year and with this prop we don’t need him to do anything but have a solid run on Sunday. I’d like a little longer odds but when he’s in a Chevy and they’ve been running very well at road courses of late, it’s hard to argue they should be longer.

 

 

 

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +210 (FanDuel)

Bowman has five top-10 finishes in his 10 road course races in the Next Gen car. Three of those have come in the last four such races. He is an under-the-radar road racer who’s put up a better average finish in the Next Gen era than drivers like Martin Truex Jr., AJ Allmendinger, and Michael McDowell, noted road racers. Getting this nice of a return on a prop that has hit at least 50-percent of the time is too hard to turndown.

Cam Water Top-10 Finish +250 (Caesars)

Just like with Brown, we’re hedging here, with twice the return. If we like him to win, granted as a long shot, why should we be taking these returns and only have to finish roughly in the top-third of the field?

William Byron -114 vs. Tyler Reddick (BetRivers)

Reddick has struggled in his career at Sonoma while Byron is on a bit of a roll on road courses of late. Over the 11 road courses in the Next Gen car, Byron has beaten Reddick’s average finish by 3 spots a race (9.9 to 12.7) which also nudges this prop in his direction.