Happy Easter! We get NASCAR racing on Easter night with the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway. The Virginia short track, known as the Action Track, is set for the first night race of the 2024 NASCAR season. 

 

 

 

Racing under the lights has a special vibe that’s different than standard races. Just like the vibes of a night race, Richmond Raceway is different than other short tracks. Not just in distance but in how it races and shape. What do those differences mean for the racing and betting? What are the trends and betting strategies we’re using for the Toyota Owners 400? 

All that plus winner predictions and more in our Toyota Owners 400 best bets at Richmond Raceway.

Richmond Raceway Trends

The three-quarter mile, relatively flat Virginia short track is an interesting one to dissect trends for. It’s really a tale of two different tracks. Richmond hosts two races a year on the NASCAR schedule but typically one is in the day, and one is a night race. 

It’s the night races we’re looking at this week as the Toyota Owners 400 is at 7pm ET on Sunday night. The night races vary from the day races in a significant way — track position. It’s a lot harder to move up through the field in the night races than the day races. There have been no night races at Richmond since the Fall of 2021.

However, between the four night races from 2019-2021 only a handful, total, of drivers starting outside the first seven rows have finished in the top-10. That’s what I mean when I say it’s tough to move up. There is tire wear here, but the cooler track temps at night tend to give more grip then the worn tires would otherwise produce. More grip means holding a spot is easier.

 

 

 

Toyota Owners 400 Betting Strategy For 2024

So, if we don’t have a ton of recent night races here to go off of, how are we looking at strategies? Firstly, we have to realize that in the Next Gen car, the short track racing hasn’t been that different than the previous generation so the time gap matters less. Secondly, we can compare results and driver histories on similar tracks in the Next Gen car. What are those similar tracks? 

Aside from Richmond, we’re adding in Nashville, New Hampshire, Gateway, and Phoenix. Those tracks are all between 0.75-1.33 miles in length and they are all pretty flat and tough to pass at. When we look at those tracks since the start of 2022, that gives us an 11-race span to look at for driver histories and racing styles. 

The first thing that stands out in that sample is that the race winner, unless some chaos is involved, started in the top-10 a vast percentage of the time. The second thing that stands out is that to nab a top-10 finish, they almost always have to start inside the top-20.

*The below NASCAR odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted

 

 

 

NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 Winner Predictions & Odds

Christopher Bell +500

Bell has been rounding into form this year with a lot of speed the last few races. That’s just in time to come to a style of track he’s excelled at in the Next Gen car. Over the 11 similar races since 2022, Bell has two wins, three top-fives, and seven top-10s in that span. That is the type of consistency we’re looking for. Let’s also not forget that Toyotas tend to dominate the Toyota Owners 400 for good measure.

Martin Truex Jr. +650 (BetMGM)

Truex at night in Richmond has been a near lock of sorts over the last few races. Over the last four night races at the Virginia track, Truex has three wins and a P2 finish. He had good speed in the 19-car at Phoenix, the same package and tires as this weekend, which also helps as well as the P2 finish in the high-tire-wear race that was Bristol. Getting a better return for a guy who’s dominated this race in the past is nice too.

Kyle Larson +1000 (BetMGM)

When it hasn’t been night races at Richmond, Larson has been shining. Larson has had five top-fives in the last 11 similar races to Richmond and has been tantalizing close to winning in a few of those. While it’s been a few years since Larson has won at Richmond, if he can bring the same speed he’s had in those races, he should have a great night ahead of him on Sunday.

Brad Keselowski +1200

In the last four similar races, Keselowski has posted four top-11 finishes. He did win the Richmond night race in the fall of 2020, however that starting grid was a little stilted being set by a formula rather than qualifying speed. The RFK cars have shone well at short tracks the last year and change and with the consistent speed that Keselowski has had, and inciting closer to the front, this could be the race that ends his long winless streak.

Alex Bowman +4500 

Bowman has won here in the past and is starting to show that top-flight speed once more. Even when it hasn’t been a night race at Richmond, he’s posted three top-eight finishes in a row here. These odds are too long for a driver of his ability, ilk, and being in the Hendrick foursome.

Chase Briscoe +8000 (BetMGM)

Briscoe’s specialty has seemingly been shorter, flatter tracks in the Cup series. When we look at the similar races to Richmond, Briscoe has three-straight top-11 finishes and four such finishes in the last six such races. If he continues to qualify the 14-car in the top-15 like he has been this year, he should have a path to competing for a win late if he keeps it clean and doesn’t make a mistake on pit road.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Toyota Owners 400 From Richmond Raceway

Martin Truex Jr. Top-5 Finish -110 (BetMGM)

Truex loves Richmond at night. In the last four night races here, Truex has three wins and a P2. Once known for struggles on short tracks, he’s turned those right around and is now a threat to win, let alone finish top-5 every time he shows up. Getting barely under even money odds for a guy who’s squarely finished inside the top-five four-straight races is worth jumping on.

Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish +225

In the last three similar races to Richmond, Briscoe has nabbed three top-11 finishes. When we look back through the last six similar races, Briscoe has four top-11 finishes. His skill set is generally quite helpful at the shorter, flatter tracks and that includes Richmond where he’s been known to move up well. The SHR foursome has been overlooked this year but Briscoe has arguably been the most consistent car all season thus far.

Chase Elliott Top-10 Finish -115 (Caesars)

Elliott is starting to find his footing and speed again. When we look at what that speed has produced over the last nine similar races, plus what Josh Berry did in his stead last year, Elliott has averaged a 9.8 average finish and Berry finished P2 here last Spring. Getting just a bit under even money for a guy averaging a better-than-top-10-finish is pretty solid.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +165 (BetMGM)

Bowman has been under-the-radar this year. That’s what these odds are showing. Bowman has finishing P8 or better in the last three Spring Richmond races. Richmond also tends to be one of the better tracks for Hendrick Motorsports in general, so we’ll take the nice ROI on a bet that’s hit three races in a row.

Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +300

Gragson is coming off a P12 finish at Phoenix, in the same package and tires as they’ll have in Richmond. He’s also driving the 10-car, formerly piloted by Aric Almirola who was a master at short, flat tracks — like Richmond. Assuming they use a similar setup to Phoenix and Almirola’s successes, Gragson should be competing for a top-10 by race’s end.

Joey Logano -129 vs. Ryan Blaney (BetRivers)

Blaney has stated this is his worst track — and the results bear that out. In the last 15 races at Richmond, across different car generations and day and night races, Logano is 14-1 in finishing better than Blaney. Remember, all Logano has to do is finish one spot better than Blaney and it hits.