All I can think of when the NASCAR Cup Series schedule comes to Talladega is the Eric Church song of the same name, that and big wrecks of course. Speaking of big wrecks, it’s pretty apropos that GEICO is the title sponsor of the race on Sunday, or perhaps Monday. The third plate race of the season for NASCAR is at the biggest track of them all and one of the most volatile ones too. Perhaps. There’s that word again, we’ll get into the “perhaps” along with race trends, betting strategies, weather, and of course winner predictions and the best prop bets for the GEICO 500 at Talladega Super Speedway.

Speaking of prop bets, we’ve been crushing them this year and last week at Texas it was a cash cow. Of the seven prop bets given, five of them hit including a +260 top-10 finish prop and we nearly hit six until the last lap. In fact, if you’d have bet a unit on each of the seven, you’d have finished up +5.95 units!

Racing Trends At Talladega Super Speedway

Talladega is the kind of track where chaos reigns supreme. That shows in the trends for this track. In the last 10 races here only four winners have come from the top-10 in the grid. Though another two have come from P11 and P12. All of the winners in that span though have come from inside the top-20. So while it’s possible to win from further back, it’s not all that likely. Top-10 finishers can come from anywhere in the field though as about half of the top-10 over the last 10 races have started outside the top-20.

Betting Strategies For GEICO 500

So given that there is a ton of weather in the forecast, that may even postpone the race to Monday on account of rain, and the trends, how are we betting this race? We’re spreading units around this week. We’re not going to put too much on any one driver thanks to the chaos that keeps the odds longer here. We’re also going to look at more drivers to win than we normally do, as you can tell down below. We’re also going to do the same thing with top-10 props. However, make sure to shop different books if possible because the top-10 finish odds vary widely across books.

All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

 

Winner Predictions For NASCAR's GEICO 500

Ryan Blaney +1100 (Caesars)

Blaney has two wins here and the best average finish in the field over the last 14 similar races. In fact, he’s the only driver in the field with multiple wins at plate tracks in that span. Blaney was toward the front multiple times at both Daytona and Atlanta and should be a strong competitor once more at a track he’s found success at previously.

Chase Elliott +1300 (BetMGM)

Elliott has plate race wins to his credit, though it’s been a bit. Now that he broke the winless streak last week we could see wins come in bunches for the driver of the 9-car. Elliott has 11 top-20 finishes in 14 similar races including seven top-10s. So he’s generally always threatening for a win even if he doesn’t always get it.

Bubba Wallace +1600 (BetMGM)

Wallace has been great at plate tracks and has a win here in the Next Gen car. For what it’s worth this is also technically his home track having grown up in Alabama. I’d have preferred to get these odds slightly longer but the pay off is still nice for a guy who could just as easily be the favorite here too.

Austin Cindric +3500

He’s won a Daytona 500 and he’s been nabbing top-10s at this style of track for bit now. Landing in the top-10 is the first step to winning consistently at tracks. Cindric isn’t usually on my betting slip but this week his history and these odds are a nice pairing that could pay off well at the checkered flag.

Michael McDowell +4000

McDowell has a win and six top-10s in the last 14 similar plate races. However, of late his successes have been fewer and farther between. If lightning strikes though and his form returns back to what it was that had him as a winner of the Daytona 500 and multiple top-10s in a row, these odds are pretty tasty.

Noah Gragson +4500 

Gragson has run well at these tracks in the Xfnity Series and has some solid showings in the Cup Series as well. Basically, we’re simply hoping that those showings, and his top-10 at Daytona earlier this year keep him up front long enough to have a shot at winning at Talladega.

 

Best Prop Bets For Talladega NASCAR Race

Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +105 (BetMGM)

Wallace is one of the preeminent plate racers in the field and he’s shown that with the second-best average finish in the field over the last 14 similar races. That stems from his seven P12 or better finishes in those races. We’re getting a slight value in this line compared to an even-money line.

Austin Cindric Top-10 Finish +130

When you look at the last 14 similar races to Talladega, Cindric ranks 5th in average finish in the field. That comes with five top-10s in the 11 races he’s run or nabbing one 45-percent of the time. These odds show an implied 43-percent chance of it happening. So we have value at this line.

Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +225 (BetMGM)

Gragson has run well at these tracks in Xfinity and did pull off a P9 finish at Daytona earlier this season. Sure, it’s a shorter history of pulling off these finishes in the Cup series but the talent is still there and lets not forget how good SHR has been here in the past.

Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish +160 (BetMGM)

Over the last seven plate races, Suarez has finished P11 or better five times. That’s enough consistency to feel comfy with a solid plus return on a top-10 finish prop.

Noah Gragson +100 vs Ty Gibbs (BetMGM)

Gragson has been very good of late on these tracks including at Daytona where he finished P9. While the same logic works for both sides of this bet in “if they keep it clean they win” but Gragson has the better history of doing that at these races.