The first true short track of the 2024 NASCAR season is here this week. Bristol Motor Speedway and the Food City 500 is on Sunday, March 17 and the high banks of the Tennessee short track will be roaring. The last few years this Bristol race has been a dirt race, but this year it’s back to the high-banked concrete that’s a fan favorite. How does the surface change alter the strategy for betting the Food City 500? What tracks and aero packages can we look at for Sunday’s Bristol race? What are the betting trends for Bristol? All that plus winner predictions and the best prop bets for the Food City 500 on Sunday below.

 

Bristol Betting Trends

The theme at Bristol is that regardless of the package on the cars, it’s still a short track. What does that entail? Well first things first, in the last eight concrete races here, the winner has come from the top-eight starting spots seven times. So even though the intermediate package will be on the cars this week, like they have at Dover, we are still looking at this as a short track for betting. Other trends to pay attention to are where the drivers who finish in the top-10 start. In general, they’re starting P20 or better in the field. Over the last five concrete races at Bristol there have been 11 total drivers to finish top 10 and start P21 or worse, so just over two a race.

Food City 500 Betting Strategy

Based on the trends above, and the different track surface, how are we betting this race? Wait, hold up, different surface? Yes, the last three spring Bristol races have been dirt races. We’re now, thankfully, back to concrete once more. That means that we can use all of the concrete races at Bristol, plus comparable tracks like Dover, Richmond, and a couple others, for numbers and trends. The main strategy for betting Bristol is to bet on drivers who have shown momentum on similar tracks as Bristol is a track that rewards momentum. We also, clearly, want to look at drivers who’ve been very good here previously as well. In general, this is a track that has raced the same across car generations and between day and night races as well. As for how the aero package this week changes things, drivers who have had more speed on intermediate tracks may show up better here than we’ve previously seen rather than banking on short-track-only drivers.

All odds listed are from DraftKings unless otherwise noted.

 

Bristol NASCAR Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson +550 (BetMGM)

He’s been dominant here. It’s that simple. In the last four races on concrete here, Larson has posted an average finish of 3.7 with a win and runner-up. That’s far and away the best average finish in the field. He’s been fast at similar tracks since last season, outside of Phoenix last week, and Larson should be a top contender again.

Christopher Bell +550

Bell won Phoenix last week and has had great speed for the better part of a season now. In the last two concrete races at Bristol, he finished P4 and P3 respectively. Those finishes combined with the general speed in the Toyota camp should make Bell a very real threat to win on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney +1200

Blaney has been tantalizingly close to winning at Bristol a few different times. He’s consistently had one of the fastest cars on track here, but bad luck has bit him more often than it should. In each of the last six concrete races here, Blaney has started inside the top-14 which gives him the starting spot he needs to challenge for a win.

Ty Gibbs +1400

In all honesty, I’d prefer for Gibbs to be at longer odds here but we can’t deny the speed he’s shown in the 54-car since the middle of last year. The JGR contingent is consistently fast and Gibbs is perhaps second among them. Gibbs finished P5 here last fall and is coming off strong runs at Vegas and Phoenix. If he can start inside the top-10 Gibbs should be able to bide his time and make a move for the win late in the final stage.

Brad Keselowski or Chris Buescher +1500

Both RFK drivers are together this week and for good reason — they’re both very strong. Keselowski and Buescher are within 1.5 spots of average finish of each other (10.8 and 12.3 respectively) in the last six concrete races. Both have wins, both have at least three top-10s, and both are coming in hot off of good finishes at Vegas and Phoenix. The only real difference between the two is that Buescher has proven he can move up through the field for good finishes while Keselowski needs to start closer to the front.

Michael McDowell +8000 (Caesars)

Here’s the long shot for the weekend. Long shots don’t hit all that often here, but McDowell has the pedigree to make him not your typical long shot. He’s finished P11 or better in three of his last four concrete races here and has three top-10s in the last four similar races as well. McDowell will need some breaks to go his way and will need some top flight speed that’s landed him on the front row twice already this year for starting spots. But, if he gets those, a long shot might hit.

Best Prop Bets For Food City 500 at Bristol

Chris Buescher Top-5 Finish +240 (BetMGM)

The resurgence of RFK has been real dating back to middle of last season. To back that up, we’ve seen Buescher finish P5 or better in four of the last five similar races to Bristol including a runner-up last week in Phoenix. Buescher won here two races ago and finished P4 last fall. The speed and consistency is there for Buescher to get a top-5 once again.

Kyle Larson Top-5 Finish -110 (BetMGM)

Frankly, I’m surprised that the return is this close to even money. In the last four Bristol concrete races Larson has run, he’s finished P6, P1, P5, and P2. When we look at P6 or better finishes at similar tracks, he’s done that 15 times in the 26 Next Gen races or 57.6-percent, which is higher than the 52.6-percent implied odds based on this line.

Michael McDowell Top-10 Finish +230 (Caesars)

McDowell has been known as a solid short track driver for a little while now and that’s been evident at Bristol with a P11 and P6 finish in the last two races. In three of the last four races on similar tracks and aero packages, McDowell has three top-10s. If the hot streak continues, this is a great return.

Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +170 (Caesars)

Wallace has been getting better at short tracks in the Next Gen car and since moving to 23XI. In the six Bristol concrete races in the Gen 7 car, Wallace has nabbed three top-14 or better finishes. Overall on short tracks, the last 23 races, he’s posted 10 top-15 finishes including six of his last seven such races.

Ryan Preece Top-10 Finish +550

Preece is a short-tracker at heart and he’s done well in his chances at them in the Cup series. He’s finished P12 or better in three of his five Next Gen races at Bristol and five top-15s in 15 races in this package. That’s enough to take a shot on a longer shot prop.