Pure Michigan, as the state slogan goes, is known for pure speed. Michigan International Speedway is always one of the best tests of all out speed on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule every year. This year will be no different. The FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday, August 18th will be the 3rd race in 4 that’s at 2 miles or longer, however Michigan is a bit different. 

 

 

 

What can we take from the previous races at Pocono and Indy? What can we take from the last two Next Gen races at Michigan? What are the betting trends at Michigan for this race and are there manufacturers who are better here? All of the FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions betting strategy you want and need, plus MIS NASCAR best bets for winners and more!

Michigan Race Betting Trends & Strategy

The duality of Michigan. That’s what I think about every time the Cup Series comes to the Irish Hills track. There are simply some unexplained contradictions about Michigan, how it races, and the tracks we can look at to compare too. The 2-mile track which races fairly wide compares most favorably with tracks like Pocono, Indy, Kansas, and Charlotte. 

While that might seem like a wide-array of tracks, they’re all generally low-tire-wear, high-horsepower ovals in which momentum carries from lap to lap. That being said, there’s also been correlation the last two years in the Next Gen car to Richmond, the track that’s followed it and now preceded it. Yep, a short track nearly 3x smaller than Michigan correlates. 

The other dualities? Ford has won 10 of the last 13 races here including the last 9-straight. Even though they’ve been winning each of those races, they’ve not dominated them. Of the top 10 drivers in laps led per race in the last 5 races here, only two are Ford drivers. Of the top 10 drivers in average running position only 3 are Ford drivers. 

What does all that mean? Expect the Fords to most likely make moves late in the race for the win. Drivers can pass here for top-10 spots though passing under green for the lead can be tricky.

 

 

 

FireKeepers Casino 400 Winner Predictions & Picks

Denny Hamlin +575 (Caesars)

Clearly Hamlin has been in the news this week following the Austin Dillon incident last weekend at Richmond. However, it should be noted that he was fast throughout that race and in position to win when it counted. Speaking of in a position to win, Hamlin has been 3rd each of the last 2 races at Michigan in the Next Gen car. 

When we look at similar races for Michigan in the Next Gen era, Hamlin has 12 top-5s and the best average running position. So again, in a consistent spot to win. Expect him to harness the disappointment he felt coming off Turn 4 last weekend into another strong showing at Michigan.

Kyle Larson +650 (FanDuel)

Larson isn’t called 2-mile Kyle for nothing. He won here thrice in a row for Ganassi back in 2016-17. Since then he’s been a threat to win a few times as well. His average finish mark and top-10s in that span match Hamlin’s pretty well. He and Hamlin have been the fastest two drivers all season so getting a tad better return on a similar driver is nice value in Larson’s favor.

Ryan Blaney +950 (FanDuel)

There is always more pressure on the Penske trio to do well at Michigan. Not only is it Ford’s home track, Penske owned the circuit for ~20 years. Blaney doesn’t necessarily have the stats that the drivers ahead of him do, but he has had speed here and led laps. 

That’s the first step to winning races at Michigan. Blaney has been right with his teammate Logano in terms of green flag speed much of the season so expect him to bring that to bear at Michigan on Sunday and hopefully the speed peaks at the right time in the race.

 

 

 

Joey Logano +1600 (BetMGM)

Over the last 5 races at Michigan Logano has been the third-best driver in the field by most metrics. When we add in similar tracks and the consistency still keeps him third-best in my metrics, we’re looking good. Now factor in he’s in a Ford and drives for Penske and has arguably been the fastest Ford each week the last few months, this could very well be a redemption week for Logano. 

He’s seething mad from Richmond and would love nothing more than to show he should’ve won last week and again this week. Hey what do you know, we could’ve had another Richmond-Michigan double this year.

Chris Buescher +1700 (FanDuel)

Speaking of the Richmond-Michigan double, Buescher pulled that off last year. While his teammate/car owner Brad Keselowski is from Michigan and desperately wants to win here, expect RFK to throw everything to Buescher this weekend to help lock him into the playoffs after last weekend’s Dillon scare. It won’t take much to go his way given his solid track history here already.

Ty Gibbs +2200 (FanDuel)

Gibbs has two solid Cup results here of P10 and P11 along with qualifying well. Gibbs also ran very well at Pocono a few weeks ago before engine issues cost him a shot to win. Other similar tracks haven’t been great for him but the Toyotas in general do well at the larger intermediate tracks and his Xfinity record here is very good as well. Oh yeah, and he’s still looking for his first Cup win and what a time to do it to lock into the playoffs?

Alex Bowman +3500 (FanDuel)

Bowman, like most of his stats, has had an underrated history at Michigan. He nabbed a top-10 in the first Next Gen race here and led 19 laps last year before a steering issue ended his day early. He brought speed to similar tracks this year including Pocono a few weeks ago with a P3. If similar speed is in the 48-car this weekend for Bowman he’s the best Chevy in the field outside of Larson and he comes at a good value for that standing.

 

 

 

FireKeepers Casino 400 Long Shot Winner Bet

Erik Jones 125-1 (BetMGM)

A few things in Jones’ favor this week: firstly it’s a home track for him having grown up going here as a kid. Secondly, he has a solid track history at Michigan, especially in the Next Gen era with two top-10s. 

Thirdly, he pulled those off in poorly performing Chevys and now he’s in a Toyota that typically performs better at the larger intermediates. Now, clearly there’s a leap to go from top-10 to P1 but we did see Dillon do it last week at a track he had a good history at much like Jones at Michigan.

NASCAR Prop Bets: FireKeepers Casino 400 - Michigan International Speedway

Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish -110 (BetRivers)

I don’t usually like taking these bets but with Hamlin it’s different this week. He’s finished P3 here both Next Gen races and in terms of similar tracks, he’s nabbed 12 top-5s in the last 15 races. No one else in the field is even close to that.

Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish -120 (BetMGM)

When we look at the last 15 most similar and comparable races to Michigan, Wallace is averaging a 12.9 finish. Not only that but he’s finished top-10 more than half the time including a P2 here two years ago. The larger, faster, intermediates is where Wallace tends to do well and Michigan certainly fits that mold.

 

 

 

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +130 (FanDuel)

Bowman pulled off a P9 finish here in 2022 and was leading for a chunk of the 2023 race before a steering issue ended his day early. Prior to his issue at Indy, he had a run of four-straight top-10s in similar races going including a P3 at Pocono. He may not be a driver who dominates a lot but he is consistent and that consistency is what we’re banking on for this top-10 finish prop.

Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +400 (BetMGM)

As bad as Legacy Motor Club has been in the last couple of years, Jones still has two top-10s here in the Next Gen car. When Jones is comfortable at a track we typically get the best out of him and that’s what this week is. We saw last week a driver show up and be good out of nowhere, that could very possibly be Jones this week at Michigan.