NASCAR returns to the Lone Star State this weekend with the Autotrader Echopark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway. Sunday’s race will be the first time at an intermediate track since Las Vegas in the third race of the season. 

 

 

 

This should give the drivers a chance to find the speed in the cars again and get back to multi-groove racing. What does a return to a 1.5-mile track mean for NASCAR betting? 

How do we approach Texas Motor Speedway predictions in general? What are the betting strategies for the Echopark Automotive 400? And, most importantly, our picks for winners and best prop bets for Sunday’s Cup Series race at Texas are just below.

Texas Motor Speedway Trends

Texas is a track that seems similar to a few different intermediate tracks, yet it’s not. It seems similar in layout, distance, and racing style, yet the results put it in a class of itself. We can look at Charlotte, Kansas, and Vegas as comp tracks for Texas in terms of distance and tire wear. 

However, in terms of racing lines, Charlotte might be the most comparable to Texas. Over the last 11 races at Texas, dating back to 2017, eight of the winners have started P9 or better while the other three started P18, P21, and P24. In the last five races here, 70-percent of top-10 finishers started inside the top-12 which should tell us something for prop bets. 

If we’re looking at top-10 finisher bets, of which there are a few below, we want drivers starting mostly inside the top-12. The only outside factor to that is if they have a history of moving up well here.

 

 

 

Echopark Automotive Betting Strategy For 2024

So, with the trends covered, how does that inform our strategies for this week? Well the first thing that stands out is the track history matters here. This is a track that can be tricky to figure out and once a driver sorts it out, they continue to run well here. 

Just because they’ve run well at similar tracks doesn’t necessarily carryover to Texas in results. The other strategy we’re using is to generally bet the favorites. This week I’ve listed more favorites in winners than typical because of the type of track this is shown to be. 

We can take chances on finish position bets with slightly longer odds but for winners it’s better to bet the shorter odd drivers.

*All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

 

 

 

NASCAR Echopark Automotive 400 Winner Predictions & Odds

Below are our predictions for the winners of Sunday's Cup Series race in Texas.

William Byron +700 (BetMGM)

Byron has been great here in the Next Gen car. Over those three races, Byron has the best average finish in the field at 3.3 including a win. He’s been fast at multiple tracks this year and is already leading the Cup Series in wins. His teammate Kyle Larson has been fast here too, about half the time, so we’ll a longer return and more consistency in Byron.

Denny Hamlin +700

While Hamlin has yet to win a Next Gen race at Texas, though he’s been getting closer to the front each time. Last year’s P5 finish is one of 10 top-fives in 19 similar races in the Next Gen car that includes three wins. Hamlin has been the best of the Toyotas at intermediates this year in terms of long-run speed and that’s what’s needed to succeed at Texas.

Tyler Reddick +750

Reddick has a win at Texas and a knack for running well at the similar tracks. Over the 19 similar races in the Next Gen car, Reddick has the fourth-best average finish. While I’d like slightly longer odds for Reddick, it’s hard to deny that this track fits his style where speed can be found outside a typical racing line, just like Reddick likes it.

Ross Chastain +1800

Chastain finished P2 here a year ago and then backed that up with three-straight P5 or better finishes at similar tracks. There’s more risk here than the favorites but the upside is just as strong including a history of winning similar races. If the 1-car is fast in practice, expect these odds to shorten.

Brad Keselowski +3000 (BetMGM)

I know we don’t typically think of Keselowski as a 1.5-mile threat but the record at Texas doesn’t bear that out. He’s posted the second-best average finish here in the Next Gen car at 6.7 and he’s been similarly consistent on the similar tracks with eight top-10s in the 19 similar races. 

That includes three top-10s in the last four races. Keselowksi was a threat at times last year here in the RFK 6-car and looked quick in this package earlier this season as well. If he qualifies it solidly, these 30-1 odds could pay off handsomely.

 

 

 

NASCAR Longshot Winners This Week

Erik Jones +7500 (Caesars)

Had Jones not finished P30 last year after a late race wreck, these odds wouldn’t be this long. The line with Jones for the last few years has been that when he’s at a track he’s comfortable at the performance is top tier. That’s Texas for him. Based on his speed the last two years here has made him a threat and if he harnesses that again, he could hit at these odds.

Daniel Suarez +8000 (BetMGM)

Suarez has finished in the top-third of the field each of the last three years and has improved his finished each year. That’s the kind of trend we want to take advantage of. Sure, there’s a difference between finishing P12 or P10 and winning, but the first step in winning is consistently being in position to win and that’s Suarez at Texas.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Echopark Automotive 400 From Texas Motor Speedway

Check out the top NASCAR prop bets for the upcoming Cup Series race at Texas down below.

Brad Keselowski Top-10 Finish +100 (BetMGM)

We said above his average finish here is great at 6.7 and he’s posted three top-10s in the last four similar races. That’s enough for us to take even money odds on Keselowski to nab another one on Sunday given his consistent start to 2024.

William Byron Top-5 Finish +120 (Caesars)

His average finish, again, is 3.3 here in the Gen 7 car. Then add in his seven top-fives in 19 similar races that lead to his 8.7 average finish, and we’ve got a guy who’s far too consistent and fast to have plus odds on this bet.

Ross Chastain Top-10 Finish -120 (BetMGM)

For the same reason we’re taking him to win above, we’ll take this bet. Eight top-10s in 19 similar races, most of which coming recently, indicates he’s figuring out how to pilot these Gen 7 cars around these intermediates.

Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish +200

This is a pseudo home track for Suarez as it’s one of the closest that his family can get to when coming from Mexico. That kind of boost tends to show itself in performance on the track. That’s the case for Suarez at Texas. 

He hasn’t finished worse than P12 in the Next Gen era and has two top-10s in his last four similar races. If that hot streak and good Texas showings continue, those top-10s odds beat the implied odds giving us value on the bet.

Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +200

Like was said above, Jones was running P2 late last year before finishing P30. If we factor that into his Next Gen numbers here, that’s two top-10s in three races with the worst finish being P12. He shines here and has generally been racy at the 1.5-mile tracks especially at Texas which plays into our hands with these odds.

Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish +260

Quite simply we’re going off his average finish here in the Next Gen car which is 10.0. He’s posted a P5 and P10 in the last two trips to Texas. That being said, his recent showing at similar tracks have been a bit up and down. Even with that he’s posted three top-10s in the last nine similar races which beats the implied odds of this return.

William Byron +115 vs. Kyle Larson

This is a case of a hot driver against a consistent finisher. Larson is hot and has been fast, but Byron has been more consistent. Taking plus money on a driver with the best average finish in the field in the Next Gen era is a no brainer to be honest. Remember, we don’t need Byron to finish a certain spot here to win this, just to best Larson by a spot.