We’re back from the 2024 Paris Olympic break and we’re kicking things off with the Action Track. The second race at Richmond Raceway with the Cook Out 400 is this Sunday evening, August 11th. The last time the NASCAR Cup Series was in the Virginia capital it was an interesting race with late-race moving and shaking. 
 

 

 

Will we see that once more on Sunday evening? How do we take in the 2-week break into our research? What are the betting trends at Richmond we can look at? All that plus winner predictions for the Cook Out 400 and NASCAR best bets for Sunday at Richmond Raceway coming up.

Richmond Raceway Betting Trends & Strategy

Richmond has been an odd track of late. It’s long been known as the “Action Track” though not a lot of action has actually happened on track in the Next Gen races. We’ve seen drivers lead tons of laps at a time and seemingly only relinquished leads on pit road or on restarts. That’s been typical of the short track package in the Next Gen era as well. 

However, in a bit of a juxtaposition to the “not a lot of action” moniker is the fact that winners have come from reasonably deeper in the field. In the last 12 races at Richmond, only twice has a winner come from inside the top-five in the grid. In that same span, seven winners have started P11 or further back. 

This track more than any short track comes down to pit strategy late and if a driver is in position on the last restart to make a few moves. In the March race that was the case as Denny Hamlin won from P11 with a winning move on the final restart that included moving his teammate out of the way. So don’t count your driver’s position as done until the checkered flag waves since we’ve seen time and again late cautions really shift the field around.

 

 

 

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Winner Predictions & Picks

Christopher Bell +550 (FanDuel)

Bell has been great in this package this year. In the five similar races this year, including the previous Richmond race, Bell has yet to finish worse than P7. That includes two wins. When you couple that consistency with how good Toyota and JGR have been at Richmond in the last 10 years (winning more than half the races), he’s set up to be a major factor on Sunday with a great shot to win.

Martin Truex Jr. +600 (FanDuel)

Had it not been for a bad restart in overtime in March, Truex would’ve won the first race. He led well over 100 laps and was sitting in the catbird seat for the final restart before getting moved out of the way. That finish hasn’t sat well with him all season and he’s been itching for a shot at redemption. Sunday is that redemption shot. While he’s been a bit up-and-down in this package this year, Richmond has always been a place he contends no matter what else is going on during the season and that should be the case again this weekend.

Joey Logano +1200 (FanDuel)

It may be a bit of a weird season for Logano thus far, however he’s still been threatening more often than not. Logano finished P2 at Richmond in March and has three P6 or better finishes at similar races this year. As long as he doesn’t wreck, he’s been running inside the top-10 at these tracks all season. The Ford camp has been better at tracks where aero has less of an effect and Richmond is certainly one of those tracks.

Chris Buescher +2400 (FanDuel)

Buescher won this race last year and still needs a win this year. While he’s likely in the playoffs without a win, the win assures it at this point. The car was quick in the March race here and since the Richmond win last year, he’s posted 4 P9 or better finishes in 6 races; that includes 3 top-fives. Expect RFK to give Buescher everything it has to get a win down the stretch and lock him into the playoffs since Brad Keselowski already is locked in.

Josh Berry +2800 (DraftKings)

Berry has been a short track specialist in his racing career including his rise through the NASCAR ranks. That’s shown up here with a P11 and P2 finish in the two Cup races he’s run at Richmond, both of which have required him to move through the field. As his time at SHR winds down and he’s looking to make a last gasp effort to make the playoffs, this may well be his best chance at a win in the next 4 races.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Cook Out 400 - Richmond Raceway

Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish +110 (FanDuel)

Larson started on the pole in March and led more than half the race before finishing P3. That’s one of 7 top-five finishes in the last 11 similar races in the Next Gen era. That’s remarkably consistent and a hit percentage well above the implied odds of 47.6% with this line. He will threaten all evening and may win but he’s more likely to finish in the top five than win so we’ll take these odds.

Josh Berry Top 10 Finish +110 (BetMGM)

Berry’s specialty is the shorter tracks and that’s shown up at Richmond in the past. He finished P11 in March after starting P30 and finished P2 when he filled in in a Hendrick car previously. In the 7 similar races he’s run in the Cup Series, Berry has 4 top 10s, or 57.1% of the time. The implied odds on a +110 line are 47.6% meaning there is pretty solid value in this line.

Christopher Bell -108 vs. Kyle Larson (FanDuel)

While it’s true that Larson has beaten Bell in 4-of-5 Next Gen races at Richmond, the hot hand is with Bell. He’s finished better than Larson in 4-of-the-last-5 similar races this year including a win. Toyota has historically been very good at Richmond which gives the edge to Bell as well. That added to the closer-to-even-money return for Bell is a nice edge.

Alex Bowman +115 vs. Ryan Blaney (DraftKings)

This is historically Blaney’s worst track and one he’s self-admitted to struggling to figure out. Bowman meanwhile has been consistent here. That’s all we really need as all Bowman needs to do is beat Blaney by a spot. That’s exactly what Bowman has done during the 5 Next Gen races as Bowman has a 14.2 average finish compared to Blaney’s 15.2 average finish in the same span. That gap gets bigger the more races are taken into account too.

Todd Gilliland Top 10 Finish +500 (BetMGM)

Here’s the long shot prop for the week. Gilliland has been very consistent this year including three-straight P16 or better finishes at similar tracks. He also started P6 here in March before fading late. If he has that same kind of speed this time around and holds it, he’s proven he can hang around the top 10 numerous times this year. Gilliland is also pushing for a playoff spot and top 10 finishes would boost that chance.