The NASCAR Cup Series races under the lights Sunday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Coca-Cola 600! This is considered a Crown Jewel race for NASCAR and it wraps up one of the best days of the year for motorsports. The F1 Monaco Grand Prix kicks things off Sunday morning followed by Indycar’s Indianapolis 500 in the afternoon. Then we get the longest race of the year Sunday night. 400 laps around Charlotte’s track will equate to 600 miles and the big narrative heading into Sunday will be how Kyle Larson performs in both the Indy 500 and the Coke 600. Here are the NASCAR best bets and driver props for Sunday night’s huge race.

 

 

 

Racing Trends at Charlotte Motor Speedway

With the introduction of the NextGen car a couple years ago, seeing one driver purely dominate any one particular race has become more rare. In the Gen6 car it was possible to see a driver lead over 350 laps in this race. That isn’t the case anymore but we still usually see a primary dominator lead anywhere from 80-160 laps with secondary and tertiary dominators along the way. Essentially, we’ve seen more balance among our leaders. But at the end of the day this is a war of attrition. The longest race of the year is physically demanding on these drivers. So betting outrights, while always risky, isn’t necessarily something I’m leaning into heavily this weekend. Most of my wagers are on top 10 odds and some other props. As it stands right now I have just three outright bets for winners. 

Additionally, we’ve now seen Ford really come around and find more speed in their cars. This wasn’t the case all year. Ford got off to a sluggish start to the season and the Chevys and Toyotas won every race for the first three months. But the Ford teams have found more speed of late, and wouldn’t you know it, this is a track Ryan Blaney ran away with in the cooler conditions of last year’s race.

 

Betting Strategies for the Coca Cola 600

This certainly is a race that feels wide open. Kyle Larson is a heavy favorite and you can really only get him at +550 odds to win outright ahead of qualifying. Those odds are too short for my liking, especially after he’s set to run the Indianapolis 500. I’d rather parlay 0.25 units on him winning both races which you could get at around +4700 earlier in the week. Is it likely to happen? Of course not, hence why I’d only go with a quarter-unit. 

Some of the bets odds we’re getting are on the top 10 market so as I mentioned previously, that’s most where I’m living.

 

Winner Predictions for NASCAR’s Coca Cola 600

Martin Truex Jr. (+1100 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is a trendy one among most betting experts this weekend. MTJ has won this race twice before and he’s led 100+ laps on multiple occasions at Charlotte. It has been quite some time since he’s gone to victory lane, especially on an intermediate. However, he has the endurance and stamina to avoid the fatigue most drivers will experience and he had one of the faster cars a few weeks ago at Kansas. Similarly enough, that was another race where the track conditions cooled off as we carried on into the night.

Chris Buescher (+1400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

DraftKings is strangely offering some of the best outright odds ahead of qualifying. But we shouldn’t be sleeping on Buescher. He won three races last year and has finished top 10 in four of the last six races for the Coca Cola 600. But I’m more drawn to the recent trends with Buescher especially because Buescher and Brad Keselowski are emerging as the best Fords at the moment. Three weeks ago at Kansas (a comparable intermediate track) he led 54 laps and finished second in the closest finish in NASCAR history. Then he was contending for the lead late at Darlington but was wrecked on an aggressive move by Tyler Reddick. But it was Buescher’s teammate, Brad Keselowski, who went to victory lane. So Buescher is knocking on the door and may just be in the mix come Sunday night.

Ty Gibbs (+1600 on BetMGM)

You can also get the same line ahead of qualifying on DraftKings. Earlier in the week this line was around +1400 but we get it at slightly longer odds for this race. Gibbs has won here in the Xfinity Series and had a competitive ride for Saturday’s Xfinity race as well. Is this great value? Not quite, but it’s reasonable. Everyone wants to be in on his first win and the Toyotas have looked great on the intermediates this year. He was top five at Vegas earlier in the year and was the runner-up at Darlington prior to last week’s All-Star race. It does feel like he’s trending closer and closer to that first career Cup Series win. I also like him at +800 to finish as the top Toyota.

Bubba Wallace (+3500 on BetRivers; 0.3 units)

You can also get him at +3300 at Caesars if you don’t have access to BetRivers. This is an outright I’m not currently riding. I like Bubba. And he’s in great equipment. He has previously won at Kansas and the Toyotas have been great in this aero package this year. That’s basically what draws me to this bet. He grabbed a top five here in last year’s race and the car should have speed. Do I genuinely believe he wins? No, but at anything longer than +3000 I think it’s worth a little exposure just knowing how good Toyota has been on these tracks this year.

Noah Gragson (+6600 on BetMGM; 0.2 units)

Here’s another outright I’m not riding, but one that merits consideration. And you can even get his teammate, Chase Briscoe, at +8000 odds at BetMGM as well. We mentioned earlier how the Fords have found a little more horsepower. And there’s some uncertainty with the Stewart-Haas Racing drivers and their future. It’s rumored the team wants to sell off their charters and that could leave their futures unknown to an extent. But for now, they have a race to try and win. Gragson has been a little better on the intermediates this year. He was sixth at Vegas and ninth at Kansas. He also wasn’t awful at Darlington either. Briscoe, to his credit, was sixth at Texas and fifth at Darlington. He even finished fourth in this race two years ago. I think both are worth a fraction of a unit, but I’m going to be riding MTJ, Buescher, and Gibbs as my outrights.

 

 

 

Best Driver Prop Bets for the Coca Cola 600

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to Finish Top 10 (+500 on BetMGM)

Stenhouse has finished seventh in back-to-back Coca Cola 600’s in the NextGen car. We’ve acknowledged this race requires endurance and stamina. Stenhouse is one of the most physically “in shape” drivers in the field, and as it turns out, the guy can throw a punch too. Even if we expand our sample size at Charlotte, he finished fourth in the mid-week Alsco 500 during the 2020 COVID season, and he was fifth in the Coca Cola 600 in 2019. Even in 2021 he finished 12th at Charlotte. So it’s a track he’s previously said is one of his best and getting him at these odds for a top 10 seems like a steal.

Austin Dillon to Finish Top 10 (+650 on BetMGM; 0.5 units)

I don’t have as much faith in this one as I do for Stenhouse, but I still have action on it. Dillon wrecked in this race in 2022 but did grab a top 10 here last year. But we can again expand the sample size and acknowledge that he was sixth here 2021 and he won this race in 2017. The larger concern with Dillon is that he’s been dreadful this year. The only reason his job is safe is because Richard Childress is his grandfather. He has just one top 10 finish this year so momentum is not on his side. We’re mostly rolling with track history for this top 10 prop.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1600 on BetMGM; 0.3 units)

As you can see, BetMGM is offering some of the best top 10 odds. DraftKings is delivering on outrights, but you can really hammer a lot of top 10 props on BetMGM. I also like Corey LaJoie for a top 10 at the same odds, but Zane Smith looked impressive in his debut at Charlotte last year when he finished 10th. Now he doesn’t have a top 10 at all this year, but there’s talent with this driver. It’s mostly the equipment that’s an issue but if he avoids the chaos this could pay off for us. He’s a former Truck Series champion and it’s generally believed he’ll get an equipment upgrade next year by moving over to Trackhouse Racing. We aren’t going with a full unit but he’s certainly worth a sprinkle of your bankroll.

 

 

 

Chase Briscoe to Finish as the Top Ford (+2500 on DraftKings Sportsbook; 0.2 units)

We already wrote up Briscoe as a driver with respectable long shot odds to win. And we mentioned how he and Gragson have been solid on the intermediates this year. Briscoe’s longest odds for a top 10 are currently +275 for a top 10. That’s decent equity, and we’ve seen him finish with top 10 equity already this year. There are a lot of Fords in this field, but Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, and Noah Gragson are all getting +1000 odds or shorter to finish as the top Ford. The next closest is Briscoe at +2500 who has been arguably as good as Gragson on intermediates this year.

Toyota as the Winning Manufacturer (+140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

The only downside is that the Toyotas are getting the shortest odds among the three manufacturers and they field the fewest cars. However, I’ve mentioned ad nausea how they’ve been fantastic on intermediates this year and in this package. Plus, three of my five favorite outright bets are on Toyotas, so why not piggyback and go with Toyota as the winning manufacturer? Even if Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, or Tyler Reddick go to victory lane we can still cash this ticket if MTJ, Gibbs, or Bubba don’t take us there.