week is the Cook Out 400 at Martinsville Speedway. Known as the Paperclip for it’s shape, it’s been known to produce tight racing, just like a paperclip holds paper tightly. Alright enough with the bad dad jokes, let’s get to why we’re all here — bets and betting strategy. With this being the third short track in four races, what can we take from the other races for this one? How is Martinsville betting strategy different than other tracks? What drivers have been good here and how are we betting them? All that plus winner predictions for the Cook Out 400 and best prop bets for Martinsville, just keep reading.

 

Martinsville Betting Trends

The Virginia short track is known for tight racing, tight racing lines, and a lot of laps. This weekend should be no different. The barely-half-mile track is one of the flattest on the schedule and that means that typically, there is one, maybe 1.5, racing grooves to race on. Hence the tight racing. It also means there are some certain trends we see at a track like this. Mainly that passing is hard here and winners come from the front of the field. The last winner to start outside the top-20 came in the second race of 2014 and in the 18 races since then, 2/3 of winners have started inside the top-10. When we’re looking at prop bets, the trends also suggest that starting inside the top-20 is the best way to finish inside the top-10. There isn’t a lot of moving up from far back in the field at Martinsville. Why? Because being lapped happens quickly at Martinsville, even faster than it did at Richmond and Bristol.

Cook Out 400 Betting Strategy

So how are we betting this race? Firstly, we’re going with drivers who have shown consistency at Martinsville. Christopher Bell put it best this week, Martinsville is a different track from anywhere else and it takes a while to figure out how to drive it best. The drivers that have shown consistency have figured it out and that makes them threats eery time they come to the track. Drivers with the best long run speed at practice are also drivers we want to be targeting for winning and prop bets. Races at Martinsville tend to be full of green flag laps and long run speed will come to the forefront as the race gets to the later stages.

All odds shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

 

Winner Predictions For NASCAR at Martinsville

Martin Truex Jr. +750 (BetMGM)

Is it enough to say it’s named after him? I mean it is Martin’s Ville right? He won three of four races here a couple of years ago and had that speed in his car again last week. Not only does he have speed, he has revenge and emotion on his side too after he felt he was robbed of a shot to win last week. Considering he has a better record here than Denny Hamlin yet he is well longer than Hamlin in terms of odds, we’ll take the bigger return for Truex.

Ryan Blaney +800 (BetMGM)

The last Ford driver to win a race at Martinsville, Blaney has been consistently good at Martinsville. That’s the type of record we’re looking for at a track like this. He appeared to have good speed at Richmond last week and at Phoenix earlier this year too. In the same package and tires, we’re expecting another good showing from Blaney here with a shot at a second grandfather clock.

Kyle Larson +800 (BetMGM)

The last three races at Martinsville have seen Larson finish P2, P1, and P6. He was a threat much of the day at Richmond last weekend in a very similar setup to what they race here. When Larson figures out a track, it’s hard to keep him from racking up wins in bunches and he’s clearly started figured out Martinsville in the last year and change.

Joey Logano +1100 (BetMGM)

I understand he’s been bad this year. However, even when he’s been bad elsewhere, he’s shown up at Martinsville. The last six races have seen him post the best average finish in the field and the same can be said for the last 14 similar races too. With that much consistency here and similar tracks, this line turns into value compared to some of the other drivers ahead of him.

Chase Briscoe +2200 (BetMGM)

Briscoe runs best at shorter, flatter tracks like Martinsville, Richmond, and Phoenix. Briscoe has four straight top-10 finishes and that’s a precursor to winning at a track. He has been consistently one of the fastest Fords let alone SHR cars each week would should also help him challenge for the win when all is said and done on Sunday.

 

Long shot Winners

Daniel Suarez 150-1 (BetMGM)

Suarez is one of nine drivers to have multiple top-10 average running position races at Martinsville in the Next Gen car. The finishes haven’t always equaled his mid-race performances  but the fact that the other drivers who have the same average run position as Suarez are all far shorter odds means we have value here. He’ll still need a break or two during the race to threaten for a win but if he gets them and his strong performance again, there’s value here.

Austin Dillon 250-1 (Caesars)

This is an absolute longest of long shots. Why is Dillon here? A change on the pit box. Justin Alexander is back as Dillon’s crew chief and that’s good news for Dillon. The top-10s and average finish stats are far better with Alexander not to mention that all four of his wins in the Cup Series have come with Alexander on the box. He’ll need a great run, similar to his P3 run in the 2022 Spring race, but maybe the mojo is enough to threaten for a win.

 

Top Prop Bets For Cook Out 400

Martin Truex Jr. Top-5 Finish +125 (BetMGM)

Like was said above, he’s coming off a great race last weekend in a similar package. This track he’s been great at with a few wins and a handful of top-fives in the last several trips here. Coming off the emotions of the end of last week’s race, we can expect Truex to show up strong again this week.

Joey Logano Top-5 Finish +190 (BetMGM)

In the last six races at Martinsville, Logano has a 5.3 average finish. In the last 14 similar races to Martinsville, Logano has a 6.6 average finish with eight top-fives. This line is a reaction to his recent form which hasn’t been great, but even when that’s been the case, Logano has still be a threat at the Paperclip in the past.

Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish -110 (BetMGM)

This one is simple. He’s posted four straight top-10 finishes here in the Next Gen car. He’s also run very well at similar tracks to Martinsville since 2021. This return is actually pretty good for a guy who’s hit this prop four straight time at this track.

Bubba Wallace -136 vs. Kyle Busch (BetRivers)

Busch has been atrocious on non-road and non-plate tracks. Wallace to his credit has been strong on the shorter tracks for the better part of a year now. Sure, it’s a bit more negative line than we typically see in this piece, but it’s still one of the better matchup bets this week. Remember, all we need is Wallace to finish one spot ahead of Busch and we hit.

 

Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish +300 (Caesars)

The same reason we’re betting him to win is why we’re betting on a top-10 finish. He’s had a few good races here based on analytics in the Next Gen car and this year he’s been faster on the shorter, flatter tracks, like Martinsville. If he can finish in the top-quarter of the field, it’s a 3:1 return we can’t turn down.

Austin Dillon Top-10 Finish +900 (Caesars)

I know, this is ridiculous. I mean he’s been terrible this year, but the band is back together, as mentioned above. He nabbed a top-5 here last time Justin Alexander was his crew chief for a spring race at Martinsville and threatened for top-10s in the three other Next Gen era Martinsville races with Alexander on the pit box. They are very long odds for a prop, but if the mojo is flowing, we could capitalize.