The Go Bowling at The Glen on Sunday at Watkins Glen is the second race of the NASCAR Playoffs. Following a thrilling race in Atlanta, this is a chance for a calmer race. The fabled layout of Watkins Glen has been a staple on the NASCAR schedule for decades and it offers something different than nearly all other road courses. 

 

 

 

What is that difference? How do we use that for betting strategy? What are the betting trends at Watkins Glen? How can we use those to make NASCAR picks and make Go Bowling at The Glen best bets? All that plus Watkins Glen winner predictions coming up.

Watkins Glen Betting Trends & Strategy

Of the 5 road course layouts on the NASCAR schedule, Watkins Glen is the one generally considered the fastest. That’s what makes it different. It’s not nearly as technical of a layout as most of, if not all, the other ones. 

There are still esses and bus stops and elevation changes but it’s all more sweeping and speedy. However, even though the speed is higher here, looking through the trends, much of the same trends hold as at other road courses. For example, over the last 20 races here (racing once a year) only 6 winners have come from outside the top-5 starting spots. 

Three of those were P6 or P7. Not once in the 40-race history of Watkins Glen has a driver won starting worse than P16. Less than a quarter of the time a driver has won starting outside the top-10. All of this is to say that if you’re making Go Bowling at The Glen best bets on outright winners, stick to the front part of the field. 

That being said though, betting top-10 props is a bit different. In the last 6 races here, the winner has been exclusively from P4 or better. However, nearly 40-percent of the top-10 finishers started between P13 and P37. So, if a team has the speed, a good road course history, and pit strategy, they can still hit props, but just not win.

 

 

 

Go Bowling At The Glen Best Bets: Winner Predictions

William Byron +800 (DraftKings)

Byron has been a monster on road courses of late. With 2 wins, a P2, and a P8 in the last 5 races, he’s always one of the drivers to beat. Sonoma was a letdown for him, mainly because of getting caught in a pile up a third of the way through the race. Assuming he returns back to his usual form, it could be back-to-back wins here for Byron in upstate New York.

Tyler Reddick +825 (BetMGM)

It’s been 6 straight top-8 finishes for Reddick at road courses coming into this one. That kind of consistency usually has a driver a bit closer to being a favorite than Reddick is this week at this line. That’s value for us. We’ll take it in our Go Bowling at The Glen best bets, especially since he looked like the best car on track in Chicago and nearly won that race too.

Christopher Bell +1200 (DraftKings)

Bell has the best average finish here of any driver in the field (6.0) and the third best driver rating (101.0). He’s also posted the third-most top-5 finishes in the last 10 road races and could’ve had another Chicago had he not put himself into a wall after leading 14 laps. Bell is coming into this week a bit under the radar, but the results suggest he shouldn’t be and there’s value in this line.

 

 

 

Ty Gibbs +1400 (DraftKings)

Gibbs brings with him 4 top-5 finishes in the last 5 races and it could’ve been 5-for-5 except for a bizarre spin at Sonoma. It’s hard to get more consistent than that without winning. Gibbs is +1 point above the playoff cutline, and this is likely his best shot to solidify his spot in the next round and take pressure off at Bristol next week. He’s always in contention at road courses and Sunday should be no different.

Martin Truex Jr. +1600 (BetMGM)

It’s a road course and it’s Truex. It’s really that simple. He’s still one of the best road racers in the field and needs a win to assure himself a spot in the Round of 12. Sure, things haven’t been great for him of late at road races, however, Watkins Glen has always been good to him. In 17 races here he’s posted a 10.6 average finish and only once since 2016 has Truex finished worse than P7 while leading laps in all but 2 of them.

Kyle Busch +2000 (BetMGM)

Has anyone really paid attention to Busch at road courses since going to RCR? He’s been great. In the last 10 road races he’s posted a 9.5 average finish. He leads the field in top-5s and is second in top-10s. AKA he’s always toward the front of the field and in a position to be a threat. That’s all we’re looking for here from a driver and a team who are re-energized following the Olympic break.

 

 

 

Watkins Glen Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

Daniel Suarez +3000 (DraftKings)

Suarez won Sonoma a couple of years ago in a bit of a surprise win. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see him compete here though. In his 6 career races at Watkins Glen, he’s posted 3 top-5s. Outside of COTA, he’s had top-10 speed at road courses this year and he needs a strong run Sunday to help secure his playoff standing, making him a strong option for Go Bowling at The Glen best bets.

Alex Bowman +3500 (Caesars)

Bowman has been a bit of a boom-or-bust pick at road courses. He has a win (Chicago in July), 4 top-5s, and 5 top-10s in his last 9 road races. However, the other 4 finishes are between 15-37. That includes at Watkins Glen where he’s never finished better than P14. If he can muster the speed he’s shown in 4-of-the-last-6 races where he’s finished P8 or better, there’s a shot for him to get a win here.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Go Bowling At The Glen Props - Watkins Glen International

Kyle Busch Top-10 Finish +105 (Caesars)

The driver with the second-best average finish in the field over the last 10 road races is… Kyle Busch. That mark is 9.5. Oh and by the way, if you remove the P36 finish in that grouping, the average finish drops to 6.5 over the other 9 races. And just so we’re clear, the last 9 of 10 races on road courses have come in RCR equipment for him.

Chris Buescher Top-10 Finish +140 (Caesars)

I realize Buescher hasn’t been the quickest driver recently but the value here is simply too hard to look past. In the last 10 road races, Buescher’s average finish is 8.4 and that includes a P20 in Chicago. If we take that out, his average finish in the other 9 races is 7.1. He’s simply too good of a road racer and too consistent to ignore plus money odds like this.

 

 

 

Ty Gibbs Top-5 Finish +220 (Caesars)

Gibbs has finished in the top-5 in 4 of the last 5 road races and was running in the top-10 when he spun himself out of Sonoma. He’s a smart pick for Go Bowling at The Glen best bets, as the JGR cars are always prepared well. Plus, despite his youth, Gibbs is showing quite the propensity for strong road race finishes.

William Byron +110 vs Kyle Larson (BetMGM)

Byron has been one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series over the last several races. In the last 5 races he’s finished inside the top-8 4 times while Larson has only managed that once. We can’t find much value in finish props for Byron, so we’ll take the value in this matchup for Watkins Glen predictions in 2024. Byron has won 4 out of the last 5 road races.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +175 (Caesars)

It’s been a rough track for Bowman in the past with never finishing better than P14. However, his recent run of success at road courses could change that. In 4 of his last 6 races at this discipline, the 48-car has a win and finishes of P8 or better. Bet this one cautiously as it’s recency vs. history which doesn’t always work out.

 

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