Welcome to Atlanta where the players play as the song goes. Atlanta Motor Speedway is the next stop on the 2024 NASCAR schedule for the Ambetter Health 400. The racing at Atlanta has changed a lot in the four races since the redesign of the track. It went from a fairly standard tire management intermediate track to a pseudo-plate, pseudo-intermediate track. When we look at how to bet for Atlanta and the Ambetter 400, how much of the plate track portion do we look at? How much of the intermediate do we look at? What are the betting strategies we can use to place wagers on the NASCAR race? We’ll answer all of that place give winner predictions and the best prop bets for Sunday’s Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta.

 

Betting Trends For Atlanta Motor Speedway

First things first, we’re only using the last four races at Atlanta for the trends and strategies. Why? That’s when the track redesign happened which also corresponds to the use of the Next Gen car. In terms of trends, the first one that pops out here is that twice the winner has come the pole. The other two winners have come from P12 and P18. In the first three races there were between 4-5 drivers a race to start outside the top-12 and finish inside the top-10. However, last August, the fourth race, only two drivers in the top-10 by race’s end started better than P17. That was likely due to it being rain-shortened though and mixed pit strategies. When we’re talking about winners, three of the four have led the most laps in those races as well, much like intermediate races tend to have happen.

 

Atlanta NASCAR Betting Strategies

The betting strategies here are more in-line with intermediate tracks than plate tracks. That’s because the drivers who start in the top-20 have far better shots at winning and getting top-10s here than at plate tracks. The cars that qualify closer to the front here are doing it on speed that matters more than in the drafts at plate tracks. The other reason it mimics intermediates is due to the greater number of laps in the race and the greater number of laps spent running single-file, thus reducing a chance of the big one. So we’re leaning more on track history and how teams have performed at similarly banked intermediate tracks in the past as well.

All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Ambetter Health 400 Winner Predictions

Joey Logano +1200 (BetMGM)

Logano dominated the first race at Atlanta last year but was also the most dominant car at Daytona last weekend as well. Logano is a combination of good plate racer and good intermediate speed candidate which makes for a good contender at Atlanta.

Chase Elliott +1000

Since the redesign at Atlanta Elliott has the best average finish in the field at 6.7 including a win. It’s his home track and he’s clearly shown up well here. The 9-car had speed last week before coming up short in Daytona but should be a serious contender to end his winless streak on Sunday.

William Byron +1300 (BetMGM)

Usually we stay away from the Daytona 500 winner the week after winning due to the media commitments. However, Byron is used to added media attention and isn’t your standard 500 winner. Oh yeah, and to bury the lede, Byron has won at the new Atlanta twice in four races. If he has similar speed to last week, or past Atlanta races, he’ll be a threat.

Bubba Wallace +2000 (BetMGM)

It’s been a rough go of it at Atlanta in the new format. That being said, he’s been fast at intermediates in the past and is always high on the list of drivers who can win if it’s a plate style race after all. Hence, we should include him. He is a tad shorter than I’d like here but it’s still taking a shot on Wallace.

Erik Jones +2800

He’s been the most successful driver at moving up through the field at Atlanta in the last four races. He’s yet to win but he’s been knocking on the door here for a bit. Jones was a contender at times at Daytona last week and when we couple that with his runs at Atlanta it makes him a threat.

Daniel Suarez +3500

Suarez has three top-six finishes here in the last four races. There’s no reason to think he can’t be a threat toward the front of the pack again. These odds a longer than they should be for a guy who’s consistently had chances to win at this track over the last two years.

Prop And Finish Bets For Atlanta NASCAR Cup Race

Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish +175 (BetMGM)

As stated above, Suarez has three top-six finishes here so we’re hedging against the win with another top-10 finish. He was also quite fast at Daytona before being wrecked by Ross Chastain late. He’s going off at +450 for a Top-five but we’ll settle for the top-10 spot for a healthy return in it’s own right.

Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +125 (BetMGM)

Jones has been a very consistent driver here in terms of moving up and finish. That combination makes him hard to bet against having another good day at Atlanta. It also hasn’t mattered where he’s started really as he’s picked up 11 spots or more in each race.

Ryan Blaney Top-10 Finish -115 (BetMGM)

Blaney has posted three straight top-10 finishes at Atlanta. That fits with the Team Penske speed model of being fast at non-tire wear intermediates and plate tracks. This fits both of those.

Daniel Suarez -105 vs Ty Gibbs

Last week we liked Gibbs, this week it’s Suarez. Gibbs has just two races here but the finishes have been worse both times than Suarez. Not to mention that the -105 is actually the longer end of this matchup which helps too.