There’s a first time for everything and that time is this weekend for the NASCAR Cup Series. It’s the first time they’ll be racing at Iowa Speedway since it opened. The short track, about 30 minutes outside of Des Moines, is hosting the Iowa Corn 350 on Sunday and Fantasy Alarm has everything you need for NASCAR Best Bets today.

 

 

 

Not only do we get a short track in the middle of the Cup series schedule, but we also get a new track to try and figure out for betting, which doesn’t happen very often. With that being said, just what can we expect from the 7/8-mile track, and what other tracks can we look to for strategy? Let’s dive into those corn fields and odds and see who we like to win the Iowa Corn 350 and top NASCAR best bets regarding props as well.

Iowa Corn 350 Betting Strategy For 2024

Being a new track to the topflight of NASCAR, Iowa brings its challenges. Not only have drivers not necessarily raced here before, but the track itself partially repaved this year. For fans of Truck and Xfinity, you may remember the racing at Iowa, but for those who are unfamiliar, it is a 7/8-mile layout with a similar shape to Richmond Raceway. 

In general, for a wider selection of tracks, we can look at not only Richmond but also Gateway, Phoenix, New Hampshire and perhaps a bit of Nashville. While none of those are exactly like Iowa, they are all shorter tracks that are flat or flattish and thus the driving style is comparable. So what does that mean for NASCAR predictions and betting? 

Well, like at those tracks, we expect passing to be tough here at Iowa, especially in the top-10, and track position to be king. We’ve seen drivers be able to move up through the dirty air in the pack into the back of the top-10 but then stall out. So, drivers who are fast at practice and capitalize on that speed with good qualifying efforts are the ones more likely to have a shot at winning. 

Also like those tracks, cautions are less likely to shake up the field much as the tremendous downforce doesn’t cause a lot of spins or getting loose into the wall.

 

 

 

Iowa Corn 350 Winner Predictions & Picks

Kyle Larson +575 (Caesars)

It’s Larson and it’s a race. Enough said quite frankly. He’s in a groove where it doesn’t matter where he’s racing or what he’s racing, he’ll make it go fast. While he’s not taken a win at a shorter track in a little while, he’s threatened in basically all of them this year. He also ran a tire test here earlier in the year giving him a bit of recent feel on the track.

Denny Hamlin +700 (FanDuel)

Like Larson, Hamlin has been a threat basically every week this season. In the last two similar races he’s posted two top-five finishes. While he’s not won on a short track for a little while, Hamlin has posted the best average finish in the 15 similar races in the Next Gen era at 9.5. That means, he’s always running near the front and that’s the best way to nab wins.

Ryan Blaney +1000 (DraftKings)

Blaney should’ve won at Gateway a couple of weeks ago before he ran out of gas on the last lap. If we include that in his top-five finishes, despite him officially finishing P24, that’s seven top-fives in 15 similar races. With that much success running at or near the front, we can expect him to be in that spot again this Sunday and we can guarantee he’ll be aware of the fuel situation late race too.

Joey Logano +1200 (BetMGM)

We all love the “new thing” narrative for Logano and while that does hold weight, he’s also been very good. In similar races in the Next Gen era, Logano has two wins, seven top-fives and a 9.5 average finish all put him at the top of those categories. So, to get a driver equal to Larson and Hamlin and Blaney at longer odds who has a strong narrative play too is a gift.

Chris Buescher +1800 (DraftKings)

We’ve seen RFK shine in this package over the last year and change. Buescher has been in position to win multiple times in addition to the one win he nabbed at Richmond last year. If Buescher brings a similar package to Iowa as he has in the last several shorter, flatter track races, Buescher will be tough to deal with late in the race once more.

Ross Chastain +2500 (BetMGM)

Chastain has a strong history at similar tracks and with that strong history comes with a chance of winning. Nashville is also a similar track in some ways, and he won there last year as well. The only thing he has to worry about is if Kyle Busch looks for revenge this week or just keeps that in his pocket for later in the season.

Chase Briscoe +5500 (FanDuel)

SHR has long had a history of having a driver who’s great at shorter, flatter, tracks and that torch has been passed to Briscoe. He’s nabbed wins not only at Iowa in lower series but also at Phoenix in the Cup Series. Now being without a team for next year as of now, he’s likely to want to show what he can do the rest of the way and that starts with a strong run at a track he likes.

 

 

 

Iowa Corn 350 Picks: Long Shot Bets

Austin Cindric +6500 (Caesars)

Can Cindric go back-to-back at short, flat tracks? To be fair he needed his teammate to run out of gas and Christopher Bell to blow an engine, in the closing laps for the last one. However, Cindric has run well at times at similar tracks. We will need the same effective setup on the 2-car this weekend as he had two weekends ago but there is a chance that they get it right again and these odds work out.

Erik Jones 250-1 (BetMGM)

If this bet hits, the famous “Is this heaven? No it’s Iowa” line from Field of Dreams needs to be recreated with Erik Jones. He’s a three-time winner at the track in the lower series and this year, in a Toyota now, he’s flashed speed at the shorter, flatter tracks. We’ve talked previously about how Jones races well at tracks where he’s comfortable, this might be one of those weekends. If he shocks the world, it’s going to come at a mighty payout.

 

 

 

Iowa Corn 350 Best Bets: Props

Ross Chastain Top-10 Finish +105 (FanDuel)

Chastain has a ton of experience at Iowa from the lower series. That experience comes with good finishes. When you add in his surprisingly good average finish (12.5) and top-10s (7) in the similar races in the Cup series, we’re looking at a deal here at +105.

Austin Cindric Top-10 Finish +200 (FanDuel)

He was included in the long shot section thanks to his recent success at Gateway and ongoing solidness at similar tracks. That’s all the more reason to give him a shot at top-10 finish at a track he’s run previously, well too. When you take a look at finishes of P12 or better in similar races, Cindric has pulled it off 4-of-15 which is in line with the implied odds here and if it’s the same or similar setup to Gateway, he should be in line for another one.

Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +140 (BetMGM)

Wallace since joining 23XI and the Toyota camp has been very fast consistently at the short tracks. He may not have always posted the finishes we want to see but the speed is there to do it. Frankly, having the speed consistently is the hard part of the equation. We’ll need him to avoid the mid-race errors that have befallen him, and we should be good here.

Ryan Blaney Top-5 Finish +130 (DraftKings)

As we talked about above, we nearly saw Blaney win at Gateway just two weeks ago. Sure, it was a P24, but the average run position tells a different story. There’s also the fact that he’s run well at Phoenix and previously at Iowa, in lower series. When we put that together with his six top-5 finishes in the 15 comparable races, his 40-percent hit rate fits with the implied odds on this line.

Joey Logano Top-5 Finish +150 (BetMGM)

Regardless of the “new thing” narrative, Logano has been very consistently good at this track type. He’s posted seven top-5 finishes in 15 similar races in the Next Gen car and that doesn’t include the dominant run at the All-Star race this year. The fact that we’re getting longer odds than his teammate while Logano has arguably a better record than his teammate is also a value too.