Martinsville always brings the pressure. It’s elbows out, bumpers ready, and tempers waiting to boil over as the last chance to lock into the Championship 4 hits the paper clip. This isn’t a week to get cute—playoff drivers are going to control this race. Every team knows it, and the guys still fighting for a spot will drive like their season’s on the line. Only Hamlin and Briscoe are safe, and everyone else has one job: win or possibly go home.

 

 

 

Xfinity 500: The Favorites

Ryan Blaney (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Blaney’s owned Martinsville lately. Two straight wins here in the playoffs, five top-fives in his last seven, and the kind of calm, confident driving style that wins these high-pressure races. He’s got the best average finish in the NextGen era (4.6), and his Penske Ford keeps carrying long-run pace no one else can match. It’s hard to fade the 12 right now—he’s the benchmark on this track.

Kyle Larson (+700 BetRivers Sportsbook)

Larson doesn’t have to win to make Phoenix, but don’t expect him to coast. Five straight top-six finishes here, a spring 2023 victory, and the same Hendrick setup that’s had bite all season on short flats. When he’s locked in through the center, there’s no one smoother rolling off Turn 4. Larson’s balance and discipline make him the guy everyone else has to beat.

 

 

 

Xfinity 500: Mid-Tier Targets

Joey Logano (+1000 BetRivers Sportsbook)

Nobody does desperation better than Logano. Twelve straight Martinsville top-10s, third-best average finish here since the NextGen car came in, and Wolfe calling perfect pit sequences when it matters. Logano has another gear when the season’s on the line. He’s lurking, and if this race stays green late, the 22 is live to steal it.

Ross Chastain (+3500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The “Hail Melon” guy is back at the same track that made him a legend. He’s not in the playoffs, which means he can run every lap wide open without worrying about the points math. Chastain’s average finish of 9.1 here in the NextGen era speaks for itself, and his aggression is an asset when others get conservative. He’s not afraid to mix it up with the playoff guys, and that makes him dangerous.

 

 

 

Xfinity 500 Longshots Worth a Look

This is the wrong week to chase big upsets. Martinsville in the Round of 8 is all about the playoff teams. Nine of the last ten winners here were still alive for the title, and that’s not a coincidence. The focus, precision, and pit execution of those teams usually shuts the door on everyone else. Still, there’s one guy who makes sense to keep in your pocket.

Ryan Preece (+7500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Preece isn’t scared of this place—he’s built for it. He led the most laps here in spring 2023 and has two top-10s in his last three starts. Short, flat tracks play right into his Modified roots, and Martinsville rewards that old-school rhythm driving style. The playoff guys will set the pace, but Preece is the one outsider who can sneak his way into the conversation if his pit crew nails the day.

 

 

 

Xfinity 500 Props That Pop

Joey Logano (+120 BetMGM Sportsbook), and/or 

William Byron (+120 Caesars Sportsbook) Top-5 Finish

Both are live, and both can hit. Logano brings the steady Martinsville floor — twelve straight top-10s, four straight top-eights, and a crew that always nails execution when it matters most. Byron delivers the pure playoff upside — two Martinsville wins since 2022 and a Hendrick short-flat setup that’s been money all season. One’s driving out of desperation, the other out of necessity, and both have the speed to park inside the top five by the time the checkered drops.

Ryan Preece Top-10 Finish (+300 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Two top-10s in his last three Martinsville races and the track fits him perfectly. Preece knows how to manage brakes, pace, and traffic here better than half the field. If RFK brings a balanced setup, this one’s live all day.

Ross Chastain Over Josh Berry (-114 at BetRivers Sportsbook)

Simple math. Chastain’s in better equipment, has a stronger Martinsville record, and races with more urgency. Berry’s still adapting to Cup-level traffic flow on these tight4 tracks, while Chastain has already proven he can muscle a top-10 here. Easy call.

 

 

 

Xfinity 500: Final Thoughts

This race runs through the playoff drivers. If you’re betting Martinsville, keep your money with the teams that have something real to race for. Ryan Blaney (+380) and Kyle Larson (+600) are the two most complete cars in the field — both can win on pace, pit execution, and composure. Joey Logano (+1000) and William Byron (+120 for Top-5) offer the best value on the board, with proven Martinsville speed and playoff urgency that translates to results.

If you want to take a swing beyond that group, Ross Chastain (+4000) has the aggression to hang near the front, and Ryan Preece (+7000 / Top-10 +325) is the only realistic outsider with track-specific upside.

This isn’t the week to fish for miracles. Bet experience, pressure-tested teams, and playoff motivation — that’s what wins at Martinsville.