Time to trade Chicago’s concrete walls for California wine country. Sonoma is no joke—it’s tight, technical, and brutal on anyone who can’t hit their marks lap after lap. Strategy calls, tire management, and brake bias will make or break Sunday’s 110-lap chess match. Let’s lock in the sharpest bets to cash in while everyone else is sipping cabernet.

 

 

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Shane van Gisbergen (+160 at BetRivers)

SVG is the class of the road racing world right now, plain and simple. He’s bullied the field twice this season already on these layouts and shows up with a ridiculous 2.3 average finish on road courses in 2025. This will be his first Cup start at Sonoma, but he already won an Xfinity race here, so no worries about the learning curve. If you’re looking to fade him, be my guest—but you’re playing with fire.

Kyle Larson (+600 at BetMGM)

If there’s one driver in the field who can outfox SVG on Sonoma’s roller coaster of a layout, it’s Larson. Two wins in the last four at this place. He’s the king of nailing the undercut, saving tires, and closing late when the grip falls off. His road results outside Sonoma have been trash this year, but here? This is his house.
 

 

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Mid-Range Picks

Michael McDowell (+1100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

People sleep on McDowell because he doesn’t make much noise outside road courses, but that’s the point. This is where he shines. He’s riding a three-race top-7 streak at Sonoma, including second last year. Needs a win to save his playoff hopes, so you know he’ll gamble on strategy. Solid play if you want someone who’ll hang around up front all day.

Chris Buescher (+1400 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

If Sonoma had a most underrated trophy, Buescher would have his name etched on it three times already. He’s finished top-5 here three years running and is the type who just keeps grinding laps while others overshoot the hairpins. RFK’s road course package has been quietly excellent all year, making him sneaky dangerous at these odds.

 

 

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Long Shot Picks

Ross Chastain (+3000 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

If consistency is king at Sonoma, Chastain’s wearing the crown. Four top-10s in five starts here, including fifth last season. He’s aggressive in the braking zones, thrives in the slow corners, and knows how to pick people off when they lock up. Trackhouse has been lights-out on road setups. For these odds, that’s practically a gift.

Joey Logano (+6000 at BetMGM)

Look, Joey’s 2025 road results have been nothing to write home about, but Sonoma isn’t your typical road course. He’s got four top-5s here in 15 tries and always seems to find his way to the front when pit strategy shakes out. This price is too high given his experience and feel for this track. Worth a small stab if you want to brag about calling the long shot winner.

 

 

 

Best NASCAR Props for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+190 at BetRivers)

Sonoma has never given Chase the win, but it’s given him almost everything else. He’s the most consistent guy in the field here by average finish. With three top-5s in the last four races at this place and solid form on road courses all year, this is a bet that just makes sense.

Ross Chastain Top 10 Finish (+110 at BetRivers)

Chastain finishing in the top 10 here is like death and taxes. The man’s got an 80% hit rate at Sonoma. He’s the definition of reliable on these tight, technical layouts, and you’re getting plus money? Don’t overthink it.

Chris Buescher Top Ford (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chevy’s odds to sweep the win are so juiced they’re practically unplayable, with the books pricing them like they’ve already taken the checkered flag. Instead of swallowing that chalk, pivot to Ford value with Buescher. He’s been their road-course ace all season, with top-10s at COTA and Mexico City, plus three straight top-5s at Sonoma. If anyone’s going to spoil the Chevy party, it’s him.

 

 

 

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Final Thoughts

Sonoma isn’t about who’s the fastest in a straight line—it’s who can outlast, outthink, and outbrake the rest of the field. Shane van Gisbergen is the clear man to beat, but Larson and Elliott are no pushovers here. McDowell and Buescher are live mid-tier threats. And if you want to sprinkle a longshot for fun, Logano’s track record is better than people realize. Buckle up—it’s going to be a beautiful mess in wine country.

 

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