Round of 8 opens under the lights at Las Vegas — a 1.5-mile intermediate where clean air, long-run pace, and pit execution decide it. We’ve got 267 laps and a hefty dominator pool, but history says the winner usually comes from teams that can sustain 20- to 30-lap speed. Saturday’s practice backed that up: William Byron owned every long-run metric, while Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Ross Chastain showed late-run closing strength.

 

 

 

South Point 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson (+500 BetMGM)

Three Vegas wins, 376 laps led over his last four starts, and zero fall-off in 2025 form make Larson the rightful chalk. He swept both stages and led 133 en route to the 2023 fall win and enters this weekend with three straight top-10s plus top-tier single-lap pace. If the 5 clears traffic early, multiple stage wins are in play.

Christopher Bell (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Bell’s been a Vegas assassin lately — two straight runner-ups in the fall race, leading 61 laps in 2023 and a race-best 155 last year. His practice sheet looked identical to his previous long-run dominance, ranking top-4 across every interval. Perfect blend of balance, tire conservation, and composure for this track type.

 

 

 

South Point 400 Mid-Range Picks: Mid-Tier Value Plays

William Byron (+900 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Byron’s Vegas consistency borders on automatic: six top-7 finishes in his last seven starts and P4 here in the spring. He swept every long-run category in Saturday’s practice (P1 at 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 laps), signaling a car built for the final 40 laps, not just the first 10. At +900, this is flat-out mispriced win equity.

Chase Briscoe (+1200 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Briscoe rolls off P2 after a rocket qualifying lap, continuing a playoff stretch where the 14 camp finally found speed again. He’s been one of the fastest qualifiers over the past month and carried that through long-run balance in practice. Vegas hasn’t historically been his playground, but this weekend’s pace and starting spot give him legitimate dark-horse win potential at double-digit odds.

 

 

 

South Point 400 Long Shot Picks

Ross Chastain (+2500 BetMGM)

Chastain’s got five top-5s in his last seven Vegas races and that recent Kansas playoff win to prove Trackhouse’s intermediate setup is legit. He showed second-best 15-lap and elite long-run speed in practice. If this becomes a strategy race, the 1 team’s aggression could flip track position late and cash at big odds.

Bubba Wallace (+2500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Wallace keeps hovering on the edge of breakthrough wins at the 1.5-milers. He nearly stole Kansas two weeks ago and showed top-5 long-run degradation handling in Saturday practice. If Toyota’s tire management advantage holds, Bubba’s firmly in the mix to capitalize on late restarts.

Josh Berry (+10000 BetRivers)

Spring winner here and a smooth, methodical long-run driver who thrives when races stretch out. He ranked P12 on 30-lap averages and the Wood Brothers have been surprisingly sharp on this package. If chaos hits or fuel mileage comes into play, Berry’s the live longshot to sneak into the podium mix.

 

 

 

Best NASCAR Props for the South Point 400

Denny Hamlin Top-3 — +190 DraftKings Sportsbook (fair down to +150)

One win and four top-five's in his last nine Vegas starts. Steady 30-lap pace makes him a consistent podium threat.

William Byron Top-5 — +120 FanDuel Sportsbook (playable to +110)

Two straight Vegas top-four's plus the best long-run chart across every distance. He’s the safest plus-money floor on the board.

Ross Chastain Top-10 — +110 BetMGM (playable to even)

Five top-five's in his last seven Vegas races. The long-run form in practice backs another strong finish.

 

 

 

South Point 400 Final Thoughts

I’m building this week’s card around Bell and Larson as the front-row heavyweights, with Byron as the value anchor who might actually have the best long-run car in the field. Briscoe brings just enough playoff momentum to justify a flier from the front row, and Chastain adds real win equity at 25-1 if the pit strategy flips. Bubba Wallace is the volatility play with late-restart upside, and Berry is your chaos insurance if attrition takes out a few contenders.

Las Vegas rewards rhythm and composure — and this lineup has both.
 

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