Kansas is a 1.5-mile intermediate with progressive banking that rewards clean air, long-run balance, and the courage to move up a lane when the groove migrates. Hendrick controlled the spring with Kyle Larson leading 221 of 267 laps from pole, but we roll into Sunday after Team Penske opened the Round of 12 with a statement win at New Hampshire. Expect qualifying up front to matter, tire falloff to widen strategy windows, and late cautions to swing value on pit road.

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400: The Favorites

Kyle Larson (+430 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Larson’s May domination was one of the most complete intermediate performances of the season. He owns three Kansas wins since 2021, seven top-10s in his last eight starts, and the versatility to adapt as the line shifts. Shortest number on the board, but every bit deserved.

Denny Hamlin (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Hamlin’s 2023 Kansas win added to a long résumé of top-5s at this track. He pairs JGR’s mile-and-a-half speed with one of the best pit crews in the field, giving him multiple paths to win. If Larson isn’t perfect in clean air, Hamlin is the most likely to capitalize.

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400: Mid-Tier Targets

Chase Elliott (+1500 BetMGM Sportsbook)

Elliott had a winning-caliber car in May, running second in both stages and leading 29 laps before a pit issue cost him. He’s a former Kansas winner, rallied from the rear to ninth in last year’s fall race, and enters with recent top-5 form. At this price, he’s the Hendrick value play.

Bubba Wallace (+2500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Wallace won here in fall 2022 and finished fourth in spring 2023, with 23XI’s Kansas notes among the best in the garage. Results have been choppy, but this is his best playoff track and the speed is real. At +2500, the ceiling outweighs the volatility.

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400 Longshots Worth a Look

Josh Berry (+3500 BetRivers Sportsbook)

Berry sliced from 38th to sixth here in May, proving his Penske-aligned Ford has serious Kansas pace. Add in his Las Vegas win, and his intermediate résumé is stronger than the market gives credit for. Long-run tire management makes him dangerous at this number.

Ty Gibbs (+4000 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Gibbs continues to show one-lap speed and is improving at working traffic on intermediates. Clean air transforms his car, and Kansas’ multi-groove layout gives him options to defend. If he qualifies top-10, this line will get cut fast.

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400: YOLO Dart of the Week

Kyle Busch (+6000 BetMGM Sportsbook)

The floor is shaky, but Kansas remains one of Busch’s better intermediate tracks. RCR hasn’t been consistent, but the upside is still top-5 speed if they hit balance and keep it clean. At 60-1, you’re betting on a strategy play and a late restart going his way.

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400 Props That Pop

Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Wallace has five top-10s in his last nine races this season and a proven Kansas record, including a 2022 win. +120 is simply too much value for his upside on this track type.

Head-to-Head: Ross Chastain over Tyler Reddick (+105 BetMGM Sportsbook)

The fall winners trend is fun, but 23XI’s Kansas edge has cooled while Trackhouse has steadied on intermediates. At plus money, Chastain’s consistency over Reddick is the sharper side.

Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chevy has taken every Kansas win in the Next Gen era outside of Tyler Reddick’s 2023 victory. Hendrick, Trackhouse, and RCR all carry live bullets, making this the highest-probability manufacturer bet on the board.

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400: Final Thoughts

Kansas rewards the strongest cars, but late cautions and pit cycles flip races here all the time. Larson and Hamlin are the anchors, Elliott is the Hendrick value, and Wallace is the mid-tier play that can swing tickets. Berry and Gibbs carry the longshot juice, Busch is the chaos hedge, and the props tie the card together. Watch qualifying closely — history says the winner almost always comes from the top 10.

 

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