Daytona is the ultimate variance track. You’re not betting “the best car,” you’re betting survival, manufacturer teamwork, and who can execute the last 10 laps when the race turns into a slot machine. And 2026 brings extra unpredictability: Chevrolet rolls out a new ZL1 body, Haas Factory Team and Rick Ware Racing jump to Chevy with new technical alliances (Hendrick and RCR), Spire reloads with Daniel Suárez, and Connor Zilisch arrives as the Trackhouse rookie with real buzz. Add the rules and scoring shakeup, including the return of the Chase format, and you’ve got even more incentive for drivers to stay relevant all day. In a pack race with constant wreck equity, I want proven superspeedway decision-makers at the top and one true volatility ticket at a number that can change your week.

 

 

 

The Favorites

Denny Hamlin (+1500 at FanDuel)

Hamlin is still the cleanest closer in the draft when it turns into late-race madness, and he’s one of the few drivers who consistently controls lanes instead of reacting to them. Daytona has been his playground historically, and at +1500, you’re getting a price that respects variance without treating him like just another name in the pack.

Ryan Blaney (+1200 at BetMGM)

Blaney’s recent Daytona form is exactly what you want here: up front late, aggressive in the right moments, and capable of winning without needing perfect strategy. He proved it again in August 2025 by winning the Coke Zero Sugar 400, and Team Penske’s ability to organize lines is a real edge in the final stage.

William Byron (+1800 at Caesars)

Byron is a real Daytona 500 favorite because he’s already proven he can close this exact race, winning it back-to-back. In the most volatile event on the schedule, repeatability matters, and Hendrick’s superspeedway execution gives him a clean path to be there late again.

Mid-Tier Targets

Christopher Bell (+2500 at Caesars)

Bell belongs in this tier because his Daytona “win or bust” volatility is being priced like he’s purely a Top 10 guy. Recent Daytona results show he can run at the front and close when the race stays organized, and that gives him legitimate win equity at a number that’s longer than it should be for a JGR superspeedway car.

Chris Buescher (+2800 at Caesars)

Buescher is a clean mid-tier bet because RFK’s superspeedway program consistently keeps their cars relevant late, and he’s shown repeatable Top 10 ability at Daytona over a meaningful recent sample. At +2800, you’re buying a driver who doesn’t need to dominate to cash, just survive and be in the right Ford lane when the final stage gets tight.

Ryan Preece (+3500 at BetRivers)

Preece is the exact mid-tier profile I want at Daytona: aggressive enough to take a lane when it matters, but disciplined enough to keep his car clean early. He comes in with real momentum after winning the Cook Out Clash at Bowman Gray, and in a pack race that can flip in one restart, +3500 is the right payout for a driver trending up into Speedweeks.

 

 

 

Longshots Worth a Look

Michael McDowell (+4500 at FanDuel)

McDowell is the longshot profile I trust most because he consistently drives these races like a veteran who expects the Big One. He backed it up in Duel 2 by running clean in the lead pack and finishing fourth, which matters because it signals he has the speed to stay connected without overreaching. If you want a 40–45/1 ticket with an actual closing path, this is it.

Corey LaJoie (+5000 at BetRivers)

LaJoie showed enough pace this week to justify a longshot ticket, and the Duels did not change that, even though he got caught up in the overtime mess. The path is simple at Daytona: survive the first 170 laps, then attach to the right line and be willing to take the gap when it opens. At 50/1, the price matches a realistic “still there late” outcome.

Todd Gilliland (+6500 at DraftKings)

Gilliland is the kind of Daytona longshot you can justify because he doesn’t need to be great; he needs to be present. His win condition is manufacturer cooperation, clean survival, and one late restart where the lane opens and he gets pushed. At 65/1, that’s a bet with a logical script, not a prayer.

YOLO Dart of the Week

Riley Herbst (+12500 at Caesars)

This is pure Daytona math. Herbst doesn’t need to outdrive the field; he needs to keep a clean nose and stay connected to the right line when half the contenders are gone. At 100–125/1, you’re buying maximum variance leverage at a race where variance is the baseline.

 

 

 

Props That Pop

Denny Hamlin Top 10 (+115 at FanDuel)

This is one of the cleaner edges on the board because you’re getting plus money on a driver with a high-end superspeedway resume and elite late-race decision-making. In a race where favorites can get wrecked, I’d rather take plus money on a Top 10 than lay juice on multiple “safe” options. I’d play this down to around +100.

Kyle Larson Top 10 (+140 at FanDuel)

Larson at plus money is the kind of bet you take because Hendrick cars tend to be in the mix late, and Larson’s price is still reflecting old narratives. He doesn’t need to dominate; he needs to survive and be attached to the right line with 15 to go. At +140, you have enough cushion for the variance.

Ryan Preece Top 10 (+210 at BetRivers)

This is a variance-friendly number for a driver who can muscle his way into the right lane late. You’re buying a big payout in a market where one clean decision at the end can swing five positions instantly. At +210, I’ll take the upside and live with the risk.

Chris Buescher over Tyler Reddick (-105 at DraftKings)

This is a clean matchup because RFK’s superspeedway approach tends to produce steadier finishes, while Reddick can be more dependent on how the Toyota lanes behave late. At basically a pick’em price, I lean toward Buescher’s survival and positioning profile.

William Byron over Christopher Bell (+110 at DraftKings)

At plus money, I’ll take the Daytona 500 closer with the proven “finish it” resume over a guy who can absolutely win, but is more swingy in this race type. In a high-variance event, give me the driver and team that have repeatedly executed the last 20 laps.

Final Thoughts

Daytona doesn’t care about your model, your charts, or how confident you felt on Wednesday. Build a card that wins if your guys simply survive to the final stage, and don’t overpay for “safety” in the one race that isn’t safe. If you’re still alive with 10 to go, you’re exactly where you want to be. After that, hold your breath and let Daytona do what Daytona does.