NASCAR Best Bets: 2025 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington

Darlington doesn’t hand out wins. It chews up tires, slaps the wall, and tests patience for 500 miles. The playoffs open under the lights at “The Lady in Black,” and the cream rises when the track gets mean. We’re locking in drivers with long-run pace, Darlington chops, and just enough edge to cash tickets where the books slipped.

Cook Out Southern 500: The Favorites

William Byron (+600 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Byron has been the king of Darlington in the Next Gen era - leading a series-best 328 laps since 2022, with five top-10s in his last seven starts and a win here in 2023. Hendrick’s long-run setup is dialed on tire falloff, and Byron’s had five races this year leading 80+ laps. The market keeps underrating him, which means we won’t.

Denny Hamlin (+650 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Nobody circles Darlington like Hamlin. Five career wins here, two Southern 500s, and he already won the spring race this year. In the Next Gen era he’s top-3 in average finish (10.3) and has two runner-ups in the last three Southern 500s. Six top-10s in the last seven ovals show he’s playoff-ready.

CAUTION: Kyle Larson (+600 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Larson is priced like Byron, but the résumé isn’t close. He’s led 392 Next Gen laps here but has just one win in 15 Darlington starts. His last three Southern 500 finishes? 30th, 12th, and 31st. When the wall bites, it usually takes Larson with it. At this number, he’s more risk than reward.

Cook Out Southern 500: Mid-Tier Targets

Christopher Bell (+1200 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

Bell is sneaky good here. A 9.6 average finish at Darlington since 2022 with three top-5s in seven starts. JGR has long-run balance figured out, and Bell’s qualifying speed gives him multiple lanes to stay up front when the groove moves.

Joey Logano (+1800 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

The defending Cup champion has the pedigree and playoff switch you want at this number. Logano owns a Darlington win and has an 11.0 average finish here since 2022. Penske teams typically bring extra juice in Round 1, and Joey knows how to grind his way to the front when it matters.

Brad Keselowski (+2800 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kes has two Darlington trophies and the patience to steal another. RFK’s been fast on intermediates all year, and Brad’s put up two top-10s here in the Next Gen car. At 28/1, this is pure ceiling value on a driver who knows how to manage tires and pit cycles at “The Track Too Tough to Tame.”

Cook Out Southern 500 Longshots Worth a Look

Kyle Busch (+3300 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Busch has a Darlington win and seven career top-5s here, plus nearly 900 laps led. RCR’s been shaky, but Kyle still knows how to work this place on long runs. At 33/1, the veteran carries way more upside than the number suggests.

Josh Berry (+4000 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Darlington is a driver’s racetrack, and Berry’s proven he can muscle high-wear ovals with aggression early and discipline late. Penske power behind the Wood Brothers only helps. At 40/1, he’s a playoff rookie with a veteran skill set - and that’s dangerous.

Cook Out Southern 500 YOLO Dart of the Week

Erik Jones (Best Available +8000)

Two Southern 500 wins (2019, 2022) and six top-10s in eight Southern 500 starts. Legacy’s week-to-week speed has fluctuated, but Jones consistently levels up at this race with smart tire management and late-run surge potential. At 80/1, this is the classic Darlington YOLO dart.

Cook Out Southern 500 Props That Pop

Chase Briscoe over Tyler Reddick (+100 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Briscoe is the defending Southern 500 winner and has finished better than Reddick in 10 of the last 15 points races since the All-Star break. Reddick’s recent non-drafting oval form dipped; Briscoe’s trend is pointed up.

Josh Berry Top 10-Finish (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Berry’s been sharp on high-wear tracks like Homestead and Dover, and Darlington fits his style perfectly. Playoff debut or not, he’s got the right blend of patience and aggression to crack the top 10.

Erik Jones Top 10 (+310 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

The books are still sleeping. Jones has six top-10s in eight Southern 500 starts and thrives on tire management. This line is flat out wrong for his Darlington résumé.

Bonus YOLO Prop: Michael McDowell Top 10 (+1400 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Three Darlington top-10s in the Next Gen car, and Spire’s speed has quietly climbed. McDowell’s tire conservation and clean racecraft give him a shot to cash at a massive number.

Cook Out Southern 500: Final Thoughts

The Southern 500 is all about survival - and execution when everyone else fades. I’m anchoring with Byron and Hamlin, fading Larson at equal pricing, and taking playoff-tested value with Bell, Logano, and Keselowski. Busch and Berry are the longshots, Jones is the YOLO hammer, and the prop board is loaded with sharp plus-money angles. Shop lines, manage units, and get ready for chaos at The Lady in Black.