Kentucky Speedway comes a callin’ this week for the Quaker State 400. It’s back to a 1.5-mile layout for the second straight Saturday night race after last week’s disappointing results at Daytona. Kentucky has only been used since 2011 for Sprint Cup races which leads to a slightly diluted historical data pool but we get the benefit of similar tracks being used several times a season. With only a few drivers dominating the laps led, it would behoove us to land one, or more, of them in our lineups this week.
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Kyle Busch | 6.8 | 3.8 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 437 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 135 | 3 | 109.25 | 21.85 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5 | 9.6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 408 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 137.3 | -4.6 | 102 | 20.40 |
| Matt Kenseth | 15.8 | 4.6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 102.9 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 1.90 |
| Joey Logano | 10 | 10.2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 120.3 | -0.2 | 15 | 3.00 |
| Carl Edwards | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 88.8 | 2 | 9 | 1.80 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.6 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 34 | 1 | 95.5 | -2.4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Denny Hamlin | 9.4 | 18.8 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 76 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 2 | 81.9 | -9.4 | 19 | 3.80 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15.2 | 14.4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 84.1 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 0.50 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8 | 7.4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 203 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 90.8 | 0.6 | 50.75 | 10.15 |
| Kasey Kahne | 16.6 | 12.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 87.7 | 4.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Jamie McMurray | 17.8 | 20.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 76.4 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Clint Bowyer | 16.4 | 19.2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 72.7 | -2.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kurt Busch | 13.2 | 11.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 89.3 | 2 | 10.25 | 2.05 |
| Kevin Harvick | 13 | 10.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 106.9 | 2.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 13.8 | 13.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 76.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| David Ragan | 28 | 22.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 0 | 60.5 | 5.6 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 19 | 21.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 65.6 | -2.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Casey Mears | 24.8 | 20.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 25 | 0 | 55.8 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Tony Stewart | 18.2 | 21.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 66.6 | -3.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Paul Menard | 15 | 19.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 81.6 | -4.2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 16.3 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 39 | 1 | 78.1 | -6.7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Greg Biffle | 20.6 | 21.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 0 | 71 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 17 | 17.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 65.4 | -0.67 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 28 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 81.2 | 15 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Austin Dillon | 17.7 | 21.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 25 | 0 | 76.9 | -3.97 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael Annett | 30.5 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 30 | 0 | 56.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Regan Smith | 19 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 1 | 56 | -6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 31.2 | 28.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 36 | 1 | 42.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| David Gilliland | 36.8 | 29.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 31 | 0 | 43.5 | 7.6 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Reed Sorenson | 36.5 | 31.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 36 | 0 | 40.2 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Kyle Larson | 3.5 | 37.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 40 | 1 | 70.4 | -34 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ty Dillon | 21.5 | 26.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 28 | 0 | 64.7 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 20.7 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 34 | 0 | 61.7 | -5.3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 31.5 | 32.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 37 | 0 | 42.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 17 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 39 | 1 | 36.6 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Josh Wise | 34.5 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 43 | 3 | 33.9 | -2.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 39 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 42 | 1 | 30.5 | -3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 35.3 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 41 | 3 | 30 | -3.7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliot | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jeffery Earnhardt | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on 1.5 mile Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Jimmie Johnson | 14.1 | 11.72 | 29 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 24 | 842 | 1 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 103.4 | 2.38 | 210.5 | 7.26 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7.6 | 8.83 | 29 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 26 | 1,732 | 4 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 118.4 | -1.23 | 433 | 14.93 |
| Joey Logano | 6.7 | 9.45 | 29 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 1,079 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 109.7 | -2.75 | 269.75 | 9.30 |
| Kyle Busch | 11.7 | 8.8 | 25 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 658 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 105 | 2.9 | 164.5 | 6.58 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6.8 | 9.38 | 29 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 27 | 1,289 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 108.2 | -2.58 | 322.25 | 11.11 |
| Carl Edwards | 11.1 | 11.07 | 29 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 213 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 | 91.9 | 0.03 | 53.25 | 1.84 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11.6 | 14.48 | 29 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 292 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 92 | -2.88 | 73 | 2.52 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 11.7 | 12.48 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 1,011 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 98.5 | -0.78 | 252.75 | 8.72 |
| Kasey Kahne | 16.1 | 16.31 | 29 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 80 | 0 | 1 | 43 | 3 | 84.1 | -0.21 | 20 | 0.69 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 15.6 | 12.76 | 29 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 132 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 94.3 | 2.84 | 33 | 1.14 |
| Matt Kenseth | 14.4 | 11.86 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 18 | 23 | 504 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 97.9 | 2.54 | 126 | 4.50 |
| Kurt Busch | 10.8 | 14 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 21 | 360 | 3 | 3 | 42 | 4 | 93.1 | -3.2 | 90 | 3.33 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.3 | 11.28 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 27 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 89.2 | 1.02 | 5.75 | 0.20 |
| Kyle Larson | 15 | 17.45 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 3 | 85.5 | -2.45 | 9.5 | 0.33 |
| Jamie McMurray | 16 | 16.24 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 107 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 2 | 81.6 | -0.24 | 26.75 | 0.92 |
Drivers to watch:
Kyle Busch-Kyle owns the best average finish at Kentucky Speedway since Sprint Cup started racing there with a 3.8 place finish. He also has two wins, four top-fives, and five top-10’s, and the most laps led in the five previous races. Surprisingly he doesn’t own the highest price tag for Saturday, which should only increase his value heading into the race.
Brad Keselowski-Keselowski is tied for the most wins at the track and is second in laps led but doesn’t have quite the top-five finishes that Kyle has in the five races. Brad is coming off one his best performances of the year a week ago in Daytona while leading 115 laps. His $9,800 price tag makes him one of the more intriguing options as he is far from the top of the list of salaries.
Matt Kenseth-Kenseth is usually a tough call as his points per race simply haven’t matched the price tag he commands as a typical top-tier driver, but this week he should be on our radar as he owns a win and one of the best positional differentials in the field. The drawback to him though is he has only led 38 laps total in five races even though he has failed to finish worse than seventh in any of the five previous races.
Trevor Bayne-Bayne only has one try at Kentucky, but it was a good one as he moved up 15 spots in the race to finish 13th. Bayne has been mostly solid of late with only two races in the 20’s and the rest in the 40+ range dating back to the Geico 500. His $6,900 salary this week is just low enough to take a shot on him as a serious upside play. Ultimately we’d like to have more information to draw from but his recent performances justify the choice.
David Ragan-Ragan has only had one top-10 finish at Kentucky but owns the fourth best positional difference in the field at a +5.6. There are not a lot of drivers who have managed to move up through the field so having a driver on the roster with a proven track record of doing so would be a nice security blanket. $5,600 makes him a very nice budget-friendly play to round out any format of roster, be it GPP or cash.
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