DFS NASCAR: Quaker State 400 Playbook & Optimal Lineups

Quaker State 400

Kentucky Speedway

Daytona lived up to the excitement that it’s hype brings as there was plenty of action and of course the “big one” that took out 19 cars in one fell swoop. The GPP lineup missed the money line due to the “big one” but the cash was looking in pretty good shape until the final turn when Kurt Busch got loose and finished 23^rd instead of third. We shall try and do better this week.

Let us now turn our attention to this week’s challenge of picking the interesting race at Kentucky Speedway.

It’s a 1.5-mile Tri-Oval layout that carries a lot of speed through turns one and two but then speeds slow dramatically in turns three and four after the backstretch. The track in Sparta is the newest one on the circuit, having just started supporting Sprint Cup races in 2011, which was marred by terrible traffic issues and a slightly poor report from the drivers. Since then however it has undergone a remodel or sorts with the track being newly repaved and this being the first year on the new surface. What that means for us, is that it will throw a wrench into using the data from the previous events at the loop because it will be a more one-groove race than in previous years and less rubber on the track means things could get wild.

NASCAR is also electing to go with the low-down force package that was in place at Michigan just a few weeks back, which could also make things loose and exciting. Ordinarily the winner of the race has come from the top-five starting spots four out of the five races here, but with the new track configuration (a product of the repaving) that stat may not hold true. Toyotas have been the dominant make on the track with three of the five wins there, and this week they have looked strong once more through the abbreviated practice sessions. Looking at qualifying this week can be slightly misleading as well since there was no qualifying session and they are lined-up based on owner points.

DFS PLAYBOOK

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

The cash lineup this week tries to take advantage of positive position movers and drivers with historically good numbers at the track. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Carl Edwards headline the lineup as they all have shown well at the track and with the new repaving, Kevin Harvick has a shot to lead a lot of laps from the pole in the one-groove track. Kyle Larson has had a checkered history at the track but has consistently shown speed including this week in practice, as well as having a top-five finish at Michigan International Speedway in the same down force package. Landon Cassill and Michael Annett offer bottom level prices and consistent performance that could take advantage of moving up through the field in both cases.

The six drivers selected for the GPP lineup are in there to optimize finishing positions with five total wins on the track in the roster. Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski have been the two most dominant drivers on the layout, in the five years Sprint Cup has run at Kentucky, with four wins, six top-fives, nine top-10s and 845 laps led combined. They have fast cars again this week and good qualifying positions. Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth add to the depth of the starting six with another win, five top-fives, and seven top-10s combined in five races. Edwards has been the fastest car on the track in three of the four practices this week. Landon Cassill and David Ragan round out the roster with upside plays at the bottom of the salary scale. Both guys offer the ability to move up through a field and Ragan moved from 35 to 22 at Michigan in the same package.