DFS NASCAR: I Love NY 355 Playbook and Lineups

***Updated post-qualifying lineups are posted below with analysis*** Denny Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Matt DiBenedetto will all move to the back of the field.

I Love NY 355

Watkins Glen International

Last Sunday was the second race of the season at The Tricky Triangle and it saw Kyle Busch drive away with his first victory of 2017, thereby locking himself into the Chase, though he was likely there even without the win. Compared to the week before at Indy, last week’s race was relatively smooth with only a few non-stage cautions. The win by Kyle now leaves just three spots open in the 16-driver first round of the Chase with five races left before the start of the playoffs.

From a pond to a lake is the move from Long Pond, PA (Pocono) to Seneca Lake and Watkins Glen International in New York state. “The Glen” as it’s known, is of similar track length to that of Indy and Pocono (both 2.5-mile tracks), coming in at 2.454 miles per circuit. That distance is for the short course layout that NASCAR uses as opposed to the full course at 3.40 miles that includes “the boot” as well. Seven turns in total make up a full lap not including the bus stop, or inner loop, on the back straight.

While this is another road course, the second raced on in the schedule, it is a far different race than Sonoma. Watkins Glen is a much faster track than Sonoma and to a degree a less technical one. Without as many turns or hairpins or a chicane it means cars carry much more speed over the course. There are elevation changes at this road course as well, though not to the degree that Sonoma contains. It’s important to note that the “355” in the race name refers to kilometers run and not laps or miles. The race itself is 90 laps in length, making it the shortest by laps of the season.

Dating back to 2005, there are only two instances of a driver leading more than 51 laps in a race, and in most years there are two drivers very close to each other in the category. The last three years have seen no drivers lead more than 30 laps in the 90-lap race. Overall, 94% of winners have come from the top-five starting spots however the last three races have seen winners come from outside the top-five spots. 

DFS Playbook

Optimal Lineups

The cash lineup is made up of the most solid drivers in the field here over the last two races, and their careers. Martin Truex Jr. has six top-10s in 11 career races here and has been talked about as one of the two fastest cars this week. Kyle Busch has led the most laps here in the field at 195 and has by far the fastest car on the track this week. Brad Keselowski has the most laps led in the last two years with 55 along with a P3 and P7 and four top-fives in seven races at WGI. Joey Logano won here in 2015 and finished runner-up last year and still needs a win. He starts P13 but has the ability to move through the field well. Danica Patrick and David Ragan are the two budget-friendly plays this week with good histories here especially from Danica with a +6.5 PD in the last two years.

Pivot: Kyle Busch for Kevin Harvick

The first GPP lineup starts with Kevin Harvick who has a win here previously and eight top-10s in 16 tries but will start P20 Sunday after running P11 in both practices. Brad Keselowski is next up for the same reason that make him playable in the cash games. Kurt Busch has a +7.5 positional differential in the last two years and nearly two top-10s. A.J. Allmendinger comes from open-wheeled racing and won here in 2014, and is still needing a win to clinch a playoff spot. He also has five top-10s in eight races here. Trevor Bayne will start P30 on Sunday but has moved up from that starting spot in the last two years to possess a +17.5 PD. Landon Cassill is the budget-friendly play as a guy who has a top-20 finish and a solid PD in the last two years.

The second GPP is a morphing of the cash and first GPP lineup to produce a very solid group of six drivers. The new driver added to the six-driver roster is Ty Dillon. Dillon maybe a rookie in MENCS but he has run at Watkins Glen three times in Xfinity and finished in the top-10 each time. We aren't looking for that out of him but a Top-15 isn't out of the questoin.