The newly renamed Hellmann’s 500 (previously the Alabama 500) is on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway, as they race there for the second time this season. We all know that anything can happen at ‘Dega as there is typically the big one that will take out about a quarter of the field. However, it could be even worse this weekend as this is also an elimination race before the Round of 8 begins. Strategies are varied here, with one being getting everyone that’s up front in the hopes they avoid the big wreck or getting those up front and in the back so that when the middle of the pack crashes out, you benefit from the higher finishes for your roster. One driver has dominated laps led over the last three years and the rest have been pretty judiciously spread out. Positional differential is also a bit funky this week as a result of those drivers avoiding big wrecks successfully.
TRACK BREAKDOWN
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Brad Keselowski | 10.2 | 13.2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 92.5 | -3 | 14.75 | 2.95 |
| Denny Hamlin | 21 | 19.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 90.2 | 1.8 | 7 | 1.40 |
| Joey Logano | 21.8 | 20.4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 84.2 | 1.4 | 12.75 | 2.55 |
| Clint Bowyer | 26.6 | 10.2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 72.8 | 16.4 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Paul Menard | 10.4 | 15.4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 36 | 2 | 80.2 | -5 | 3 | 0.60 |
| Ryan Blaney | 8.8 | 19.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 80.7 | -10.7 | 3.75 | 0.94 |
| Ryan Newman | 13.6 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 0 | 57.8 | -0.4 | 3.25 | 0.65 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 29.2 | 13.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 84.2 | 15.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 7 | 17.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 170 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 101.1 | -10.8 | 42.5 | 8.50 |
| Greg Biffle | 22.8 | 20.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 77 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 72.9 | 2 | 19.25 | 3.85 |
| Matt Kenseth | 10 | 22.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 80.3 | -12.6 | 11 | 2.20 |
| Chase Elliott | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 101.3 | -4 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
| Kyle Busch | 23.3 | 16.25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 84.1 | 7.05 | 6 | 1.50 |
| Carl Edwards | 14.2 | 24.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 2 | 59.9 | -10.4 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
| Jamie McMurray | 28.8 | 23.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 71.4 | 5.2 | 0.75 | 0.15 |
| Landon Cassill | 34.6 | 19.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 1 | 61.5 | 14.8 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 19.2 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 59 | 0.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Austin Dillon | 15.4 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 72.2 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Harvick | 21.4 | 10.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 97.4 | 10.6 | 7.75 | 1.55 |
| Kurt Busch | 15.6 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 91.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.10 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 19.3 | 15.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 66.9 | 4.05 | 0.75 | 0.19 |
| Kasey Kahne | 13 | 22.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 86.9 | -9.4 | 8.25 | 1.65 |
| Trevor Bayne | 16.8 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 2 | 76 | -12.2 | 7 | 1.40 |
| Tony Stewart | 16.2 | 25.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 58.5 | -9.2 | 2.75 | 0.55 |
| Kyle Larson | 26.2 | 24.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 77.6 | 2 | 2.25 | 0.45 |
| Casey Mears | 16.4 | 23.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 62.9 | -6.8 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Danica Patrick | 23.2 | 22.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 19 | 27 | 1 | 69.9 | 0.6 | 4 | 0.80 |
| David Gilliland | 35.4 | 27.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 | 40 | 2 | 63.8 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
| David Ragan | 27 | 33.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 30 | 38 | 2 | 57.5 | -6.4 | 1.5 | 0.30 |
| Michael Waltrip | 30.2 | 20.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 0 | 54.4 | 9.8 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| Cole Whitt | 32.8 | 17.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 22 | 0 | 59.6 | 15 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Bobby Labonte | 31 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 27 | 0 | 51.3 | 8 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
| Aric Almirola | 21.6 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 1 | 64.8 | -0.4 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Reed Sorenson | 29 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 34 | 1 | 64.3 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Michael McDowell | 19.5 | 31.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 41 | 2 | 59.2 | -12 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Alex Bowman | 30.3 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 43 | 3 | 54.7 | 0.3 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael Annett | 26.3 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 38 | 2 | 51.7 | -3.7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 38 | 31.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 40 | 1 | 44 | 6.67 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Regan Smith | 25 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 69 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 32.5 | 30.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 37 | 1 | 50.6 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Brian Scott | 12.7 | 38.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 43 | 2 | 44.4 | -25.63 | 0 | 0.00 |
KEY DRIVERS ON RESTRICTOR TRACKS
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts | Pts. | Pts/race |
| Brad Keselowski | 19.2 | 16.18 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 188 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 1 | 89.9 | 3.02 | 47 | 4.27 |
| Denny Hamlin | 22.1 | 11.73 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 160 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 99.9 | 10.37 | 40 | 3.64 |
| Joey Logano | 20.5 | 14.82 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 2 | 90.8 | 5.68 | 22.5 | 2.05 |
| Aric Almirola | 23 | 20.55 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 2 | 69.3 | 2.45 | 5 | 0.45 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10.9 | 17.64 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 277 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 2 | 93.4 | -6.74 | 69.25 | 6.30 |
| Kevin Harvick | 21.2 | 14.09 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 1 | 87.1 | 7.11 | 8 | 0.73 |
| Kyle Busch | 21 | 14.89 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 88.1 | 6.11 | 19.5 | 2.17 |
| Clint Bowyer | 23.7 | 14.64 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 42 | 1 | 69.1 | 9.06 | 1.25 | 0.11 |
| Kurt Busch | 17.2 | 13.2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 1 | 92.3 | 4 | 13.25 | 1.33 |
| Austin Dillon | 14.5 | 11.91 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 77.9 | 2.59 | 2.5 | 0.23 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 21.7 | 18.55 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 2 | 79.8 | 3.15 | 1.25 | 0.11 |
| Carl Edwards | 14 | 24.64 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 4 | 67.2 | -10.64 | 6.25 | 0.57 |
| Greg Biffle | 18 | 19.36 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 97 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 77.3 | -1.36 | 24.25 | 2.20 |
| Casey Mears | 21.8 | 17.36 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 70.6 | 4.44 | 2 | 0.18 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21.2 | 18.4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 41 | 0 | 66 | 2.8 | 0.75 | 0.08 |
Drivers to watch this week:
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Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has two wins and three top-10s in the last five races here and has the third most laps led (59) making him the top driver this week. Before last week’s crash, he had posted 45+ points in nine of the prior 10 races including several 60+-point performances. He will need a strong showing this week as he currently sits 11th in the standings, seven points behind the two drivers tied for eighth in Joey Logano and Austin Dillon.
Jimmie Johnson: J.J. is the leader in the field with 170 laps led in the last three years, that is without Dale Jr. as he has led the most at 175. Johnson however has just one top-five and two top-20s to show for his effort at the restrictor plate track in the last five races. He is a two-time winner with seven top-fives to his credit in his 29 race career here however, Johnson just hasn’t been very lucky lately. The way he has raced the past few weeks on the other hand, suggest he could be primed for a big week in Alabama once again.
Martin Truex Jr.: Truex owns the second best positional differential in the field this week at +15.4 however it is a bit bolstered by a couple of starts in the back of the field. The best finish at the 2.66-mile track is a fifth place finish in May of 2015. He has been without a doubt one of the best drivers on the senior circuit this season and he could be in store for a career best finish here as he looks to lock in his advancement to the Round of 8 in the Chase.
Clint Bowyer: Bowyer is a sleeper pick this week with the best positional mark in the field at +16.4 over the last five races. He has finished in the top-10 four times in that span with two top-fives and a best finish of third in back-to-back races in the 2014 season. Bowyer is a former two-time winner at the longest track in NASCAR and has finish in the top-10 12 times in 21 career races there. It’s hard to beat that consistency on the wildest track on the schedule and especially for $7,400.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse Jr. has proven to be a pretty solid restrictor plate racer in his short time as a full-time driver in Sprint Cup. His 16th place finish in the spring race here is his second-worst finish of his career at Talladega and is the only time he has finished behind where he started in six total races. Stenhouse has also managed to complete every lap in his ‘Dega career since beginning in May of 2013, which means he is skilled at avoiding the big one. At $7,300 this week, he is worth a look as a second sleeper and one who may just very well get in the top-10 as he has done thrice in six races in Alabama.
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