Hellmann’s 500
Talladega Superspeedway
The second race in the Round of 12 boasted some great late race action that nearly saw Carl Edwards earn his first win at Kansas. However, Kevin Harvick recovered from his last two races to get the win and lock him into the Round of 8. Alex Bowman finished with his best finish of his Sprint Cup career at seventh overall after starting fifth. The standings after the Hollwood Casino’s 400 are just as tight as they have ever been with eighth through 11th separated by just seven points with 12th place Chase Elliot lingering 18 points behind.
It’s ‘Dega week though where making up points can be extraordinarily tough to do or easy, depending on where you are in the pack when the big one happens. Only two drivers are safe at this point with Jimmie Johnson and Harvick having wins in the bank. Even Matt Kenseth, currently second in the standings, could be eliminated, as has been the case with every driver in his position at Talladega in the history of the Chase format. There is also no telling when the big one is going to happen. For example, back in May, at the aptly named GEICO 500, the accident ensnared 21 cars with just 28 laps left in the 188-lap race. This Sunday is sure to be no different with so many cars fighting for a few spots left in the next round of the Chase.
Despite what I have just spent the last two paragraphs espousing, a surprising 84% of eventual winners have come from the top-five starting spots in the grid. That suggests that those drivers in the front of the pack are far less likely to get involved in the multi-car pileups the Alabama track is known for. However there is a downside in just trying to stack the roster with front of race drivers in that the upside points drop away in the positional differential category. Even though anything can happen at ‘Dega, and typically does, a good strategy can still help come the end of the race.
PLAYBOOK
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 | Harvick has not won on the track but does own the fifth best positional differential at +10.6. Him starting P22 only increases his value as he typically starts there and ends P10 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,300 | Keselowski has been the most dominant driver on the 2.66-mile loop of late with 2 wins and three top-fives in five races. He is third in laps led with 59 in that span too. Starts P2 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,100 | Busch has a top-five to his credit despite an average start of 23rd in the last five. He will start P14 Sunday but has shown top-10 speed in practice. A GPP play makes sense |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,900 | Johnson has led by far and away the most laps in the last five races with 170. He does tend to go backwards a bit in the field but can still produce a top-five finish like in May |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,700 | Truex Jr is on the pole for the first time at Talladega. Usually the pole should be avoided in cash games, but the rules are different here. He is in line for another big performance |
| Joey Logano | $9,500 | Logano has a win but only two top-20 finishes here in the last five races. He is fourth in laps led with 51 though. Starting P16 gives him upside, but he's still a GPP only play |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,200 | Hamlin has a win to his name at 'Dega along with two top-10s but in spite of that he doesn't have a great positional differential. He has been consistent this week. Either works |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,000 | Kenseth is starting P3 and looked good in the final practice too. However his average P10 start has only gotten him one top-five finish. He is a GPP only play this week |
| Chase Elliott | $8,800 | Elliot's first race here was in May and he showed himself well with a top-five finish from the pole. He again has run well in practice and qualifying and needs a win to move on |
| Austin Dillon | $8,400 | Dillon finished third in May and has two straight top-15 finishes in fall races. He is fighting for a spot in the Round of 8 and should prove valueable at this price point this week |
| Clint Bowyer | $7,400 | Bowyer is Mr. Consistency at Talladega with two top-fives and four top-10s in five races. He also owns the best positional differential in the field. This price is a steal for him |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,300 | Stenhouse Jr is a very good restrictor plate racer and has two top-10s at 'Dega in the last three years. He has also complete every lap he's run here. He is a sleeper pick this week |
| Greg Biffle | $7,100 | Biffle has been showing off his speed all week which is anything new with a top-five and second in laps led with 77. He is another driver at this price point who is a steal |
| Landon Cassill | $5,800 | Cassill returns to the list with the second best positional change in the field and a top-five finish to his credit. A budget play to gain position points is hard to beat |
| Bobby Labonte | $5,300 | Labonte only races at Talladega and makes it count each year with a +8 positional differential and a top-20. Part-time drivers who know the track can be smart plays |
OPTIMAL LINEUPS
This week the two lineups are similar, with three of the same drivers in both formats. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Bobby Labonte are the three that appear in both and for different reasons. Harvick has one of the best positional differential in the field and always has the speed to race to the front of the pack. Truex is sitting on the pole, which ordinarily won’t be a great play in a cash game but at Talladega it does make sense. Labonte is a part-time driver now who only races at this track, but he makes it count when he’s out there. As a budget-play there’s far worse than you can do.
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,900 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,700 |
| Clint Bowyer | $7,400 |
| Greg Biffle | $7,100 |
| Bobby Labonte | $5,300 |
| Total | $49,900 |
Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, and Greg Biffle are the three others in the cash lineup. Johnson leads all drivers in laps led with 170 over the last five races here, and has a top-five finish. Bowyer is Mr. Consistency here with four top-10s and two top-fives in the last five races as well as having a shocking +16.4 positional differential in that span. Biffle is second in laps led with 77 and has a top-five finish to his credit. At $7,400 and $7,100 respectively, the latter two are steals at that price point.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,300 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,700 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,400 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,800 |
| Bobby Labonte | $5,300 |
| Total | $50,000 |
Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, and Landon Cassill make up the rest of the GPP roster for the Hellmann’s 500. Keselowski is the most dominant driver on the track with two wins and three top-fives, as well as third in laps led with 59. Despite starting second, the point total should be there. Dillon is one of the unsung restrictor plate racers and is in need of a strong finish (and some help) or a win to move through to the next round. Cassill as the second best positional change in the field at better than +14 and at the budget price of $5,800 he is too hard to leave off the six-man squad.
All told the lineups try to take advantage of drivers who have shown the ability to make it through the field unobstructed and produce consistently. The trick is still avoiding the big one!
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