GEICO 500
Talladega Superspeedway
Last week capped off the run of short track races with Richmond International Raceway and with a win from Joey Logano, though it was later ruled to be encumbered. The encumbered status stems from an issue with his rear suspension and results in him losing Todd Gordon, his Crew Chief, for the next two races and the victory will not count towards him making the playoffs at the end of the year. There were several lead changes with four different drivers leading at least 25 laps and Brad Keselowski leading the way for 110 laps. Ultimately it was a rough day for several drivers including Dale Earnhardt Jr., Ryan Blaney, A.J. Allmendinger, and Erik Jones.
Down south is where the action is on Sunday as NASCAR travels to the famed and infamous Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama. Home of the “Big One” and the longest lap on the schedule, the action is fast and furious at the high-banked Tri-Oval track. The “Big One” as I have referred to is a crash that usually involves more than a dozen cars and can involve 20+ vehicles. Knowing that a huge accident looms makes picking lineups tricky but generally speaking, avoiding cars in the middle of the pack is helpful since that’s usually where the accident starts. Like Daytona, ‘Dega is a restrictor plate track in which the engines are actually inhibited to slow them down. This creates quite a bit of pack racing that can go four and five wide at times. Unlike Daytona, the track is wider and the banking is higher meaning more grooves to run and higher speeds can be carried into the turns as well.
At the short tracks we looked for laps led dominators, but dating back to the Spring race in 2011, and including the Fall races, there have only been three drivers to lead more than 80 laps in a single race. So laps led are pretty well spread throughout the field. That means we are really looking for the drivers that can stay on the track, get some laps led, but most importantly finish the race. In general, 83% of eventual winners have started in the top-five starting spots and 85% of laps all-time have been run under green flags. A disadvantage to picking the lineups this week is the fact that there were only 31 laps run of practice with the second and final practice being cancelled due to rain, and the first practice being shortened due to the same system.
With that, it’s time to dig into the plays this Sunday's GEICO 500.
DFS Playbook
Driver | Draft Kings | NASCAR Live | Description |
Joey Logano | $10,700 | $28.00 | Fresh off a win last week and the best plate racer in the field is a good combo. His limited time on the track have shown flashes of speed. His P12 starting spot works for both |
Brad Keselowski | $10,500 | $28.00 | Keselowski is the second best driver here in the field with four career wins. A top-three practice run and qualifying spot puts him in striking distance of a fifth career win at Dega |
Martin Truex Jr. | $9,900 | $27.50 | Truex has a top-five and two top-10s in the last four races here with a solid +6.75 positional differential. He qualified 10 spots higher than he ran in practice and is worth a GPP shot |
Jimmie Johnson | $9,700 | $26.75 | JJ is starting in an uncharacteristic P30 here but only ran P25 in shortened practice. He's third on the laps led tally and has a top-five finish in the last four. A GPP only play this week |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,400 | $21.50 | Jr. is the king of Talladega with six wins already in his career and now he start P2 on Sunday. He has shown great speed but his inconsistency this year renders him to the GPP format |
Kevin Harvick | $9,300 | $27.25 | Harvick has one of the better positional differentials in the field at +9.25 in the last four with two top-10 finishes. He ran second in practice and starts sixth. Cash or GPP works here |
Chase Elliott | $9,200 | $27.25 | Elliott has just two races at Dega in the top series but he has two top-10s. He has flashed top-10 speed again this week and starts P8 on Sunday. Cash or GPP work for Elliott |
Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | $21.00 | Blaney ran seventh in practice on Friday and starts P16 and owns a top-five and two top-10 finishes in the last four races. The upside is clearly there for this play to work in GPP |
Clint Bowyer | $8,200 | $20.00 | Bowyer ran the fastest time at practice but starts P17 come the green flag. He has a very good +11.55 positional differential in the last four races which could put him top-five |
Kurt Busch | $8,000 | $21.50 | Busch is one of the most consistent driver in the field at Talladega over the last four and historically with 17 top-10s in 32 carreer races here. Another should be in the cards on Sun. |
Daniel Suarez | $7,800 | $16.75 | Suarez might be a rookie but he is showing very good speed at his first go at Dega in the MECS. 10th in practice and 7th in qualifying have him running in good position for GPP |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,200 | $15.00 | Stenhouse is the pole sitter this week after beating Jr. by .2 seconds for a sub-50 second lap. If his car is that good for the race he could run away for most of the race. Either works |
Trevor Bayne | $7,100 | $18.50 | Bayne, Stenhouse's teammate, is also showing top end speed starting P5 on Sunday. Bayne has tended to back up here but six straight top-15 finishes show he's a different driver |
Aric Almirola | $7,000 | $13.50 | Almirola won the Xfinity race on Saturday, ran ninth in practice and qualified 22nd. Almirola owns a +9 PD the last four races with a top-10 finish. GPP makes sense for him Sunday |
Cole Whitt | $5,200 | $5.25 | Whitt I wrote about in the drivers to watch section of the Track Breakdown. He has the best PD in the field at nearly +20 and could do that again this week. Budget play is all he is |
Optimal Lineups
Draft Kings Cash | |
Joey Logano | $10,700 |
Brad Keselowski | $10,500 |
Kevin Harvick | $9,300 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,200 |
Trevor Bayne | $7,100 |
Cole Whitt | $5,200 |
Total | $50,000 |
The cash lineup for ‘Dega leads off with the two most expensive drivers in the field in Joey Logano ($10,700) and Brad Keselowski ($10,500). He can we go wrong with these two’s history on the track and with the speed they are respectively showing in practice and qualifying. Kevin Harvick ($9,300) is next up, just below the elite priced drivers. His consistency here and the speed he has this week make him too hard to turn down at this price. A pair of teammates are next up in Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,200) and Trevor Bayne ($7,100) given the flat out speed they both have. Stenhouse is the pole sitter, which usually isn’t great in a cash lineup, but at this track it works, he also ran the only sub-50 second lap in qualifying. Bayne has six straight top-15 finishes this year and starts P5. Cole Whitt ($5.200) is the budget-play to round out the six-driver squad. However he does offer extreme positional differential upside with a near +20 mark in the last four races.
Draft Kings GPP | |
Brad Keselowski | $10,500 |
Martin Truex Jr. | $9,900 |
Chase Elliott | $9,200 |
Clint Bowyer | $8,200 |
Aric Almirola | $7,000 |
Cole Whitt | $5,200 |
Total | $50,000 |
The first GPP squad starts with Brad Keselowski ($10,500) as the solid force at the top that his a high floor and low ceiling. Martin Truex Jr. ($9,900) and Chase Elliott ($9,200) are next up in slots two and three. Truex ran 23rd in practice and 13th in qualifying which indicates they may have figured something out between the sessions. Elliott was stellar here a year ago and looks to have the speed again this year, not to mention his dad, Bill, still holds the record time at the track. Clint Bowyer ($8,200), Aric Almirola ($7,000), and Cole Whitt ($5,200) finish off the GPP lineup. Bowyer had the fastest time in practice and has run well the last three weeks, while Almirola won the Xfinity race and ran ninth in practice.
Draft Kings GPP #2 | |
Joey Logano | $10,700 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,400 |
Ryan Blaney | $8,700 |
Kurt Busch | $8,000 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $7,200 |
Cole Whitt | $5,200 |
Total | $49,200 |
The second GPP lineup leads off with Joey Logano ($10,700) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,400) who combine to give us arguably the past two current and historic drivers on the track with a combined eight wins. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) and Kurt Busch ($8,000) are the next two up from the mid-tier salaries. Blaney ran seventh in practice but has a top-five and two top-10s here previously. Busch is consistent here but has been having a rough go of it since winning at Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse ($7,200) and Cole Whitt ($5,200) again close out the tournament six-driver team.
NASCAR Live | |
Joey Logano | $28.00 |
Brad Keselowski | $28.00 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $21.50 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $15.00 |
Cole Whitt | $5.25 |
Bonus Winner | Chase Elliott |
Bonus Manufacturer | Chevy |
Total | $97.75 |
The NASCAR Fantasy Live lineup is a mix of drivers from the previously mentioned Draft Kings squads. Joey Logano ($28.00), Brad Keselowski ($28.00), Dale Earnhart Jr. ($21.50), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($15.00), and Cole Whitt ($5.25) are the five-driver squad. Each offers a little something different in consistency of great finishes, speed this week, and being able to move through the field in proven manner.
Streak To The Finish | Kurt Busch |
Kurt Busch is the most consistent driver in the field over the last four races and is the only in the field with three top-10 finishes in that span.