DFS NASCAR: FireKeepers Casino 400 Playbook & Optimal Lineups
FireKeepers Casino 400
Michigan International Speedway
Monday is when the race for the checkered flag finally got underway at the Tricky Triangle last week, and just like past races, there were a lot of cars on the lead lap all the way until the end with only a few drivers leading chunks of the race. In the end, Kurt Busch was able to secure his first win of the season while being paired with a first-time interim crew chief following the suspension of his regular head man for the week. With the three-corner track out of the way until the Chase, we now move on to the rolling hills of the countryside of Brooklyn, Michigan for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.
M.I.S. is known for being one of, if not the, fastest tracks on the circuit, as the D-shaped oval allows for carrying speed all the way through the lap following the long straightaway down the back stretch. A complete lap is two miles in length and hence the 200 laps for the race. Texas Motor Speedway is considered its sister track on the schedule and Michigan was a model for the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana.
84% of the eventual winners start in the top-five starting spots, however as was the case last week, everyone is pretty equal in terms of laps led and position differential, save for a couple of drivers. The last dominant performance in a June race at M.I.S. was in 2012 when Dale Earnhardt Jr. led 95 of the 200 laps and went on to victory lane after starting 17th.
DFS NASCAR Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,600 | Harvick has been the dominant driver all year and now comes to a track where he has finished second in three of the last four races. He is a must-play in all formats |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,300 | Truex Jr. has been on a roll this year that was bolstered by the 600 performance. He is a mid-level driver at Michigan and has been up and down too so GPP is the play |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,000 | Michigan is a good track for J.J. with one win and two top-10's in the last four races. He is in the second tier of drivers in laps led at the track but still has value here |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,900 | Kenseth is beginning to look like the Kenseth of old in the last several weeks and should be a contender at Michigan. He is still a mostly GPP play however at this point |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 | Logano has had a fast car the last few weeks and is showing that at Michigan with the pole win. He owns the best average finish over the last two year and is a GPP play |
| Kurt Busch | $9,700 | Busch is fresh off his first win of the season at Pocono and is coming to a track where he's performed well. Another 45+ point race should be in the making for him |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,400 | Jr. is tied for the best avg. finish at sixth and hasn't finished worse than ninth in the last four races. He is third in laps led and with qualifying 27th he has a ton of value |
| Chase Elliot | $8,400 | Elliot is still in his rookie season but he's driving like a grizzled veteran. The consistency he brings week-to-week make him a must-play even at a track he hasn't raced |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,000 | Kahne has one top-five and three top-15's in the last four races at MIS. Rattling off four straight 35+ point races and five in the last six makes him good for both formats |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,700 | Finishes between 7th and 16th in the last four at M.I.S. is solid production as is the 14th spot in qualifying but he has been up and down so GPP is the best play for him |
| Ryan Newman | $7,100 | Newman has scored 39 or more points two week in a row, much like he didearlier in the season. He is a top-15 driver at Michigan with four top-20's in the last four races |
| Clint Bowyer | $6,700 | Bowyer is a top-15 driver at Michigan who has three top-10 finishes in the last four races at the track. He offers too much big upside to not play in either format |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 | The part-time driver offers good scoring chances every race he's in having not scored less than 28 points in the last five races he's run. +8 position differential too at MIS |
| Paul Menard | $6,300 | Menard is my sleeper pick this week as he hasn't finished outside the top-12 in the last four races here and moves up well in the field. His value is a must-play at $6,300 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,000 | Whitt is a budget-friendly option to try and get one more top-dirver in the roster. He does offer the upside of the best positional differential in the field at 10.5 |
Optimal Lineups
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,600 |
| Kurt Busch | $9,700 |
| Chase Elliot | $8,400 |
| Kasey Kahne | $8,000 |
| Clint Bowyer | $6,700 |
| Paul Menard | $6,300 |
| Total | $49,700 |
This week it was easier to find value in the cash lineup with how the drivers qualified following the first round of practice. The lineup consists of three of the top-10 drivers in the first practice in Chase Elliot, Kevin Harvick, and Kurt Busch but they then qualified mostly in the 20’s, save for Elliot who qualified 10th, increasing their fantasy points potential. Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, and Paul Menard all have very good histories at the track in recent years and, once again, where they qualified plays a big role in their collective tremendous upside. The six combined provide a very solid mix of consistency and upside that is hard to beat and should play well in your cash games.
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,600 |
| Joey Logano | $9,800 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | $9,400 |
| Greg Biffle | $6,900 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,600 |
| Paul Menard | $6,300 |
| Total | $49,600 |
The GPP lineup construction this week followed along the same lines as the cash, however it specializes in more risk and less consistency to max out the value. Kevin Harvick again anchors the lineup as he turns in fast times at Michigan i.e. his four runner-up finishes at the track, three of which came in the last four races. Joey Logano gives us the pole sitter and one of the fastest cars in the second round of practice, bringing risk into the equation with only getting laps led points. Dale Earnhardt Jr. drove one of the five fastest times in the first round of practice but then qualified 27th, so his value at $9,400 is really quite high, though he has been spotty this season. Greg Biffle is the active leader in wins and laps led at Michigan but hasn’t been great there lately, so we are hoping he can be a comeback kid this time around. Ty Dillon and Paul Menard are my sleeper picks this week but bring a fair bit of consistency for the price point they are at to round out the roster.
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