Duck Commander 500
Texas Motor Speedway
Wow! What a Sunday it was in Martinsville for those of us who played Kyle Busch and his whopping 180.5 points, a full 100 points more than anyone else in the race. Busch put on a show that hadn’t been seen at the Paperclip since 1998 and likely won’t be seen again for quite sometime.
The NASCAR season now moves from the quaint mountain towns of the Virginia countryside to the bustling metropolis that is the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and with it comes more wide open racing under the lights in the first Saturday night race of the season.
Texas Motor Speedway hosts two races a year, once in April and once during the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and it’s important to note the differences between those two as one has been dominated each year and one has been more evenly split among drivers leading the pack. Traditionally, for whatever reason, the spring race is the one that has largely been less dominated by one driver and thus adding to the challenge of picking the ideal lineup to rack up those precious fantasy points.
At a mile and a half, TMS is the most common distance run on the top circuit giving us a lot of data to pull from and analyze to pare down the 40 drivers on the starting grid to a list of a finely tuned six.
With four drivers at the $10,000 mark and over plus another couple in the high-$900’s there is a lot of top-level talent that’s easily affordable in both GPP and cash lineups this week. Jimmy Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Matt Kenseth are all worthwhile plays in various ways but digging into the stats shows which of those are more helpful to the cause than not.
It is with that, that we start delving into who we should play and why.
DFS NASCAR Playbook
| Driver | Draft Kings | Description |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 | Always one of the fastest cars on the track, averaging 73.2 FPPR but doesn't run great at Texas |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,400 | Practically owns the track having won 3 of the last 4 and 5 out of 7 and already has 2 wins this season |
| Kyle Busch | $10,100 | Coming off a dominant performance at Martinsville and has 3 top-5 finishes in the last three races at TMS |
| Joey Logano | $10,000 | The only other driver to win at Texas besides Johnson in the last 4 races. Has 4 wins at 1.5 mile tracks and 15 top-5's in the last two years |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,700 | A solid driver and Texas is one of his better tracks. He is coming off his best race of the season |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,600 | Has led the most laps at TMS in the last two years and always seems to finish in the top-5 |
| Carl Edwards | $9,500 | A value pick at $9,500 as he has 6 top-10's in 8 races this season |
| Kurt Busch | $8,400 | The other Busch brother is a solid cash game play since he is consistent but lacks the upside for GPP formats |
| Austin Dillon | $7,800 | In 6 out of 8 races he has posted 31 points or better and has a lot of upside play at this price point |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,400 | A great mid-tier option with Texas being one of his best tracks and the value being right in the sweet spot |
| Greg Biffle | $6,500 | Biffle has 5 30-plus point races this season and 3 sub-15 races including two negative totals. He is the defition of boom or bust |
| Paul Menard | $6,500 | Another boom or bust play but a better history at 1.5 mile tracks and one of the better value plays in Points/$ this week |
| Ty Dillon | $6,300 | Dillon is a PT driver making the most of his races. He is a top-6 value play this week |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,200 | Ranks third in FP/$ this week and is on a big roll with 3 straight 35+ point races |
| Landon Cassill | $5,700 | Consistency with upside isn't a bad thing out of one of the cheapest drivers this week |
Post-Qualifying Update and New Optimal Lineups
Now that qualifying is complete at the Duck Commander 500, it’s important we go back and look over our lineups once more to capitalize on all the points possible.
The main things we are looking for are high-upside plays that come with very little downside. Track history and previous season performances play a role but it also comes down to where they are sitting in the starting grid. For example, Carl Edwards was a good cash game play before qualifying happened but sitting on the pole means there is zero upside and thus lends himself to being played in GPP formats to grab early laps led points. However digging too far into the data can make you suffer from paralysis by analysis, so we have taken care of that for you.
Optimal Lineup for Cash Games
| Draft Kings Cash | |
| Jimmie Johnson | $10,400 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,100 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,600 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,400 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,300 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $6,200 |
| Total | $50,000 |
Two moves have been made to the cash lineup taking out Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards in favor of Jimmy Johnson and Brad Keselowski. Riding with Harvick still makes a lot of sense, especially since he qualified 22nd but Edwards was too risky to leave in so to stay under budget J.J., who is $100 bucks cheaper than Harvick, was moved in, but that move also has a lot of upside and very little downside which is what we’re gunning for in this format.
Optimal Lineup for GPP
| Draft Kings GPP | |
| Kyle Busch | $10,100 |
| Carl Edwards | $9,500 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,500 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,400 |
| Greg Biffle | $6,500 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,700 |
| Total | $49,700 |
The GPP format also had two changes made to maximize upside play, however the lineup can stay intact if you like the original play better. Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards were inserted in place of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski for a little bit more risk reward play. Edwards earned the pole and then backed it up with the second fastest time the final practice, but with no room for error he is an all or nothing play making him the type of guy for a GPP lineup. Kyle Busch had a rough qualifying but came back to win the Xfinity Series race Friday night making him a good value to rack up the points
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