DFS NASCAR: Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Playbook & Optimals

Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Bristol Motor Speedway

We’re back! Last week was the only off-week between now and the championship race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen provided some exciting racing to hold us over on the down week, with two red flags and some last lap hard racing that resulted in Denny Hamlin notching his first road race win of his career while battling back spasms. Now it’s only ovals left on the schedule, though that doesn’t mean it will get easier, as Bristol and Darlington are on the schedule in two of the next three weeks with Michigan in between as the Chase starts in just four races from now.

This April’s spring race at Bristol Motor Speedway, the second-shortest track on the schedule, produced a dominating performance from Carl Edwards as he led 276 of the 500 laps run to secure the win from the pole. Laps led dominators will be in high-demand this week so making sure at least two are on our rosters will be crucial for getting into the money. Over the course of the last five year’s worth of races at Bristol, the top-five qualifiers have led better than 60% of the laps run on average with at least one driver leading 150 laps or more in the vast majority of those contests. Drivers starting P5 or better produce 91% of the eventual winners in the track’s history, which is more important to pay attention to at the shorter courses. In fact, placing the pole winner on the roster has resulted in 90+ point days from that driver over the last 10 races at the .533-mile oval.

Though in the distance range of Martinsville and Richmond, the other two short tracks, Bristol is different because of the steep banking in the turns of 26-30 degrees compared to 14 for Richmond and 12 for Martinsville. This means that more speed can be carried through the track so even the typically faster cars on the track, like Kevin Harvick, can still be a factor even though they aren’t on a 1.5-mile or larger track.

PLAYBOOK

OPTIMAL LINEUPS

The top-two salaried drivers lead the way in the cash lineup this week with Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick and for two different reasons. Busch has run first at both practices and qualified third and has an elite level history at the track with five career wins. Harvick, qualifying 24^th, gives upside as he has shown top-10 speed in the practice runs as well as his consistency this season. Pole sitter Carl Edwards slots in in the third roster spot at $9,700 following his dominating performance in the spring race. Chase Elliot and Trevor Bayne are two more consistent but upside capable drivers in the mid-range of salaries. Elliot moved up 15 spots for a top-five finish in the spring race while Bayne moved up five to accomplish the same feat. Both drivers are capable of 55+ point performances but have a solid enough floor for cash lineups. Jeffrey Earnhardt rounds out the roster as the cheapest driver on the salary list. He is a part-time driver on the Sprint Cup level but can go for 20+ points and has the ability to move through a crowded track.

Carl Edwards leads the way in the GPP lineup for Bristol as a sheer grab for laps led points. Matt Kenseth is next up on the roster with a P5 locked in on the starting grid and the second most laps led (416) in the last five races. He hasn’t been overly consistent but has shown flashes of his elite skill this season. Chase Elliot and Tony Stewart are the third and fourth drivers in the six-man squad for their individual upsides. Elliot, as mentioned before, has the talent to move through a field and is starting sixth on Saturday. Stewart owns the best positional differential at +23 in the last three races he’s run here and should be capable of doing that once more. Clint Bowyer and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. round out the roster as more upside plays than the previous two. Bowyer has a top-five and two top-10s in the last five, which would be big points coming all the way up from 31^st to start. Stenhouse is my favorite sleeper this week with a +11.6 position mark and showing a capability for 40+ point races. He is too hard to pass up at $6,700 in salary.