NASCAR’s schedule shifts to the Keystone State for the first time this season this weekend with the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400 at Pocono Raceway a.k.a “The Tricky Triangle.” The circuit for Sunday’s race is a 2.5-mile track, one of only two that the drivers compete on during the season. This is a tricky track to judge given how equally the drivers have performed on it in the last few years.
Let’s have a look at the data.
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 13.0 | 4.25 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 111.6 | 8.75 | 6.25 | 1.56 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 13.0 | 15.25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 103 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 99.9 | -2.25 | 25.75 | 6.44 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17.5 | 17.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 84.7 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| Greg Biffle | 22.5 | 9.50 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 81.0 | 13.00 | 3.25 | 0.81 |
| Joey Logano | 5.8 | 16.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 127 | 0 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 105.3 | -10.95 | 31.75 | 7.94 |
| Brad Keselowski | 5.5 | 11.00 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 98 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 102.1 | -5.50 | 24.50 | 6.13 |
| Kurt Busch | 3.3 | 14.50 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 110.1 | -11.20 | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4.3 | 15.00 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 101.9 | -10.70 | 11.75 | 2.94 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8.3 | 11.25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 99.7 | -2.95 | 1.50 | 0.38 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 14.5 | 13.50 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 96.2 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| Kyle Larson | 14.3 | 9.00 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 95.1 | 5.30 | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Clint Bowyer | 18.8 | 11.25 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 85.5 | 7.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 14.3 | 9.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 0 | 88.7 | 4.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 15.8 | 19.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 77.4 | -3.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tony Stewart | 15.3 | 19.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 0 | 83.1 | -4.45 | 6.00 | 1.50 |
| Kyle Busch | 6.0 | 21.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 81.2 | -15.00 | 4.75 | 1.19 |
| Carl Edwards | 11.5 | 23.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10 | 41 | 1 | 83.7 | -12.25 | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 16.8 | 27.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 2 | 73.6 | -10.20 | 0.50 | 0.13 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 22.3 | 25.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 2 | 65.4 | -2.70 | 0.50 | 0.13 |
| Austin Dillon | 8.0 | 16.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 19 | 0 | 81.0 | -8.00 | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| David Ragan | 29.0 | 19.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 23 | 0 | 62.7 | 9.75 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Justin Allgaier | 26.8 | 21.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 27 | 0 | 66.6 | 5.05 | 1.50 | 0.38 |
| Casey Mears | 23.3 | 19.75 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 67.2 | 3.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 25.5 | 29.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 42 | 1 | 53.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 17.0 | 30.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 37 | 0 | 59.3 | -13.00 | 1.25 | 0.31 |
| Brian Vickers | 12.0 | 28.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 37 | 1 | 77.5 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.13 |
| Aric Almirola | 24.0 | 29.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 43 | 2 | 58.3 | -5.50 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| David Gilliland | 34.3 | 26.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 50.2 | 8.05 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| Ty Dillon | 29.0 | 18.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 72.4 | 11.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 21.5 | 25.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 0 | 64.9 | -3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Annett | 34.5 | 25.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 34 | 0 | 51.6 | 9.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 31.0 | 28.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 41 | 1 | 47.7 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 28.0 | 32.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 40 | 1 | 49.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 36.3 | 26.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 30 | 0 | 45.3 | 9.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 38.5 | 30.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 32 | 0 | 40.4 | 8.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Wise | 35.3 | 29.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 35 | 0 | 39.9 | 5.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 37.3 | 31.67 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 34 | 0 | 37.8 | 5.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeb Burton | 39.0 | 34.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 35 | 0 | 34.8 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliot | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on 2.5 Mile Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 13.8 | 8.00 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 101.2 | 5.80 | 6.25 | 1.04 |
| Matt Kenseth | 17.7 | 13.50 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 90.6 | 4.20 | 1.25 | 0.21 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 15.0 | 15.00 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 103 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 95.0 | 0.00 | 25.75 | 4.29 |
| Kyle Busch | 7.5 | 14.50 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 1 | 95.5 | -7.00 | 9.50 | 1.58 |
| Joey Logano | 5.7 | 12.33 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 165 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 1 | 108.0 | -6.63 | 41.25 | 6.88 |
| Denny Hamlin | 12.8 | 8.83 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 100.9 | 3.97 | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4.0 | 11.83 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 134 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 109.6 | -7.83 | 33.50 | 5.58 |
| Brad Keselowski | 9.3 | 11.00 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 115 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 99.4 | -1.70 | 28.75 | 4.79 |
| Kurt Busch | 5.7 | 15.67 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 100.3 | -9.97 | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| Greg Biffle | 21.5 | 11.67 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 77.7 | 9.83 | 3.25 | 0.54 |
| Kyle Larson | 12.8 | 8.67 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 97.9 | 4.13 | 4.25 | 0.71 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 13.5 | 13.83 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 94.7 | -0.33 | 1.25 | 0.21 |
| Clint Bowyer | 16.3 | 11.17 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 86.3 | 5.13 | 0.75 | 0.13 |
| Jamie McMurray | 15.2 | 12.50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 0 | 83.6 | 2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 18.3 | 16.50 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 39 | 1 | 78.7 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 17.3 | 23.00 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 2 | 82.9 | -5.70 | 18.00 | 3.00 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Martin Truex Jr.-Obviously Truex Jr. is coming off the most dominating performance in NASCAR history a week ago in Charlotte having led 392 of 400 laps, but he also performs very well at Pocono. He is one of only three drivers to have won a race there in the last two years and has led the second most laps at the track, with 103. Last week aside, he has been a driver that has really shown what he can do this season and he has earned the right to be an every week type of play no matter the format.
Joey Logano-He has been a bit erratic with his scoring this season, anywhere from minus-15 to 59, but he is coming to a track that he has done well at in the past this week. Logano has two top-five finishes at the track in the last four races there and owns the most laps led, 97 of which came in the last race held at the raceway in August 2015. With the way he scores, qualifying position will be important to watch and making sure to play him in the GPP lineups is a must.
Matt Kenseth-2016 has been a bit of a rough season for Kenseth, who has yet to string together more than two good races in a row. He is due for his second good race, following last week’s 60-point performance, and is coming to a track that he has done well at with a win in the last race there. The downside to Kenseth is, that he hasn’t historically led many laps at Pocono with just 60 to his credit in 32 races. In the race that he won, Kenseth only led the final two laps of the day. He is purely a play to win and get positional points but not much else.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.- The number-88 car has been the dominant car at the Triangle for the last two years with the best average finish position (4.25), two wins, three top-fives, and the highest Loop Driver Rating (111.6). That being said he hasn’t led many laps, 25 to be precise, and hasn’t had a great season in that he had a downturn in the middle of it. Jr. is in need of a points-race win to make The Chase and Pocono might just be where that happens. He is a good fit for both cash and GPP lineups this week and with only costing $9,300, there are several ways to construct lineups around him.
Greg Biffle-One of my favorite plays this week because of what he brings to the table despite not having a won a race at Pocono since the Fall 2010 race. Between then and now however, he has finished outside the top-15 just once and has three top-five finishes including a runner-up. Biffle owns the best positional differential in the field this week at a positive 13 (starts 22.5, finishes 9.5) and has been stringing good runs together in the last few events. The $7,000 is just a tad on the high side but not nearly prohibitively so and if he gets a ninth place finish while starting where he typically does, he would score 48 points in just position points and differential points.
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