DFS NASCAR: AAA 400 Playbook & Optimal Lineups

AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Dover International Speedway

Wow was last week an impressive performance by Martin Truex Jr. who finished with 103 points despite dropping from the pole down to 14^th place thanks to a late mechanical issue. We saw our fair share of crashes too that unfortunately took out key parts of the lineup for the second week in a row. But that is part of the unpredictable nature of the beast we love, called NASCAR. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick also continued their dominant seasons for one more week at Kansas and the GoBowling 400.

Up next is the track known as the “Monster Mile,” that’s right it’s time to strap in and try and handle the high banking and concrete that makes Dover International Speedway what it is. One of only three 1-mile loops on the Sprint Cup schedule, it’s by far the most well-known and most exciting one of the group that includes Phoenix and New Hampshire as well. The fact that it combines two different track styles means that we get an added advantage when looking at comparable tracks to view our picks through by looking at performances from Bristol (high banking) and from Phoenix (1-mile in length).

The spring races at Dover have been dominated by one driver leading 150 or more laps (of the 400 run), with Jimmy Johnson doing it several times (though not recently), as well as having the winner come from the top-5 starting spots 88% of the time historically. That being said however, a quick look at the stats from the Track Breakdown article, will also show that drivers can successfully move up in the field to grab points in position differential for you.

Dover lends itself to the long run as opposed to the short run that some other short tracks are known for, which means that speed plays well here and a team with a good pit crew can jump out early and stay ahead for a very long time.

Optimal Lineups

The cash lineup is stacked with top performers in Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Carl Edwards, whose combined average point totals gets us to better than 190 right off the bat. Tony Stewart and Danica Patrick are two middle level options who offer the kind of upside without much risk we are looking for in a cash game lineup. With the allotment of money down to just $5,600 left for the last slot, the choice of Michael McDowell was easy as he offers the best combination of stability and upside from that price range of driver. There isn’t much room for pivoting this week given the way the top drivers salaries align but the lineup puts up an average of 282.8 points which should get us into the money and with drivers posting bigger numbers the higher up the leaderboard we will go.

The GPP lineup this week features three of the top-10 drivers at the track in Kevin Harvick, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Clint Bowyer. While this lineup is decidedly more risk-reward than the cash, it is still a very good lineup capable of producing a higher upside than the aforementioned cash game roster. Kurt Busch has been incredibly consistent this year with 40+ points in every race save for two, and one had 36 points. He may not be a top-10 play at Dover, but his numbers are far too good to stand on the side of history. Chase Elliot beat out Brad Keselowski for a roster spot even though he doesn’t have any history at the track in a Sprint Cup car, because he has shown the ability to put up top-performances each and every week. The risk in the lineup is at the top with the polesitter, in Harvick, and the car sitting in the 2-spot in the starting grid in Jr., because we only stand to lose position point but are hoping for fastest laps and laps led point to trump the downside of the drop in spots at the checkered flag. Putting in Keselowski for Elliot is an acceptable pivot however he is a far more up and down play than is Elliot.